美国民众正在参加风险极高的2026年中期选举，这将决定国会在唐纳德·特朗普总统剩余任期内的控制权。根据佛罗里达大学选举实验室的数据，截至周一下午，已有超过5700万人提前投票，而关键的众议院和参议院竞选可能塑造2027年的政治前景。
Americans are voting in high-stakes midterm elections 2026 that will determine control of Congress for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term. More than 57 million people had cast ballots early, while key House and Senate races could shape the political outlook for 2027. Polling stations opened across the United States on Tuesday as voters headed to the polls for the 2026 midterm elections, a contest widely viewed as a referendum on President Donald Trump ’s first two years back in office. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Voters in 36 states are also choosing governors. Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress, and Democrats are hoping to win enough seats to limit Trump’s ability to advance his agenda during the final two years of his term.
周二，全美各地投票站开放，选民前往投票站参加2026年中期选举，这场竞争被广泛视为对唐纳德·特朗普总统重返白宫后前两年执政情况的公投。
More than 57 million Americans had already voted early by Monday afternoon, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, ABC News reported. The total was approaching the 58 million early votes recorded in the 2022 midterms. Express InfoGenIE · US midterms 2026
所有435个众议院席位和100个参议院席位中的35个将进行改选。36个州的选民同时也在选举州长。共和党目前控制国会两院，民主党希望赢得足够多的席位，以限制特朗普在其任期最后两年推进其议程的能力。
Nine things on US voters’ minds What Americans told a Reuters/Ipsos poll on the eve of the midterms. Tap an issue. of 1,765 US adults nationwide, Thursday to Monday (Oct 29–Nov 2). Margin of error: 3 percentage points for registered voters. This is not an exit poll. Bases differ by question, as noted under each chart. 48%say cost of living is their top issue 55%say the Iran war has not been worth it
据美国广播公司新闻网报道，根据佛罗里达大学选举实验室的数据，截至周一下午，已有超过5700万美国人提前投票。这一总数正接近2022年中期选举记录的5800万张提前选票。
77%are confident their ballot will be counted Tap an issue 1Cost of living2Donald Trump3The Iran war4Election integrity5Household finances6Transgender sports7Data centres8Mega donors9Party ideas 1 of 9 · Cost of living 48% say it decides their vote
Express InfoGenIE · 2026年美国中期选举美国选民心中的九大议题路透社/益普索民调在中期选举前夕了解美国选民心声。点击某一议题查看。
Top issue for deciding how they will vote Cost of living 48% Democratic norms 26% Immigration
全国范围内1765名美国成年人，周四至周一（10月29日至11月2日）。误差范围：针对登记选民为3个百分点。这不是出口民调。各问题的样本基数不同，详见各图表下方说明。48% 表示生活成本是其首要议题55% 表示伊朗战争不值得77% 确信自己的选票会被计入点击某一议题1 生活成本 2 唐纳德·特朗普 3 伊朗战争 4 选举诚信 5 家庭财务 6 跨性别者体育 7 数据中心 8 大额捐赠者 9 政党主张1/9 · 生活成本48% 表示这决定其投票选择决定其投票方式的首要议题生活成本48%民主规范26%移民13%登记选民。
13% Registered voters. US fuel prices have surged since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February. Next: Donald Trump ›2 of 9 · Donald Trump 48% see their ballot as a vote against him How they think of their ballot 48% 25% 25% Against Trump 48% For Trump 25% Trump not a factor 25% People who planned to vote or had already voted. Trump has urged supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot.
自美以与伊朗的战争2月爆发以来，美国燃油价格飙升。下一项：唐纳德·特朗普 ›2/9 · 唐纳德·特朗普48% 视其选票为反对他的一票他们如何看待自己的选票48% 25% 25%反对特朗普 48%支持特朗普 25%特朗普非考量因素 25%计划投票或已投票者。特朗普曾敦促支持者投票，仿佛他本人在选票上一样。下一项：伊朗战争 ›3/9 · 伊朗战争55% 认为不值得付出代价美国军事行动值得付出代价吗？
Next: The Iran war ›3 of 9 · The Iran war 55% say it has not been worth the cost Has US military action been worth the cost? 55% 25% 18% Not worth it 55% Worth it 25% Not sure 18% Voters. Trump has argued the war was necessary to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons.
55% 25% 18%不值得 55%值得 25%不确定 18%选民。特朗普辩称这场战争对于阻止伊朗发展核武器是必要的。下一项：选举诚信 ›4/9 · 选举诚信77% 相信自己的选票会被计数77% 对自己的选票会被计数有信心45% 认为选民欺诈是普遍问题选民。
Next: Election integrity ›4 of 9 · Election integrity 77% trust their ballot will be counted 77%are confident their ballot will be counted 45%think voter fraud is a widespread problem Voters. Trump has falsely claimed that massive numbers of non-citizens vote illegally. The White House says its goal is to safeguard election integrity.
特朗普虚假声称大量非公民非法投票。白宫表示其目标是维护选举诚信。下一项：家庭财务 ›5/9 · 家庭财务49% 称情况变差所有美国人49% 37% 13%变差 49%大致相同 37%变好 13%受访成年人。西班牙裔美国人变差54%变好10%民调未报告剩余比例。
Next: Household finances ›5 of 9 · Household finances 49% say they are worse off All Americans 49% 37% 13% Worse 49% About the same 37% Better 13% Adults surveyed.
与 2025 年 1 月特朗普重掌大权时相比。他的支持率已跌至其政治生涯最低点，包括在西班牙裔美国人中。下一项：跨性别者体育 ›6/9 · 跨性别者体育38% 称其为非常重要或最重要阻止跨性别女孩和女性参加女子体育比赛38%保护跨性别者权利25%选民。认为各项为非常重要或最重要议题的比例。下一项：数据中心 ›7/9 · 数据中心42% 希望限制建设42%称限制数据中心建设为非常重要或最重要议题登记选民。
Hispanic Americans Worse 54% Better 10% The poll did not report the remaining share. Compared with January 2025, when Trump returned to power. His approval has fallen to the lowest of his political career, including among Hispanic Americans. Next: Transgender sports ›6 of 9 · Transgender sports 38% call it very or most important Keeping transgender girls and women out of women’s sports 38%
数据中心为人工智能提供动力。下一项：巨额捐赠者 ›8/9 · 巨额捐赠者两党均反对亿万富翁斥资竞选亿万富翁捐赠数千万以影响选举属不当93%民主党人71%共和党人登记选民。超级富豪在影响联邦选举的支出方面几乎不受限制。下一项：党派主张 ›9/9 · 党派主张两党在主张方面均无明显优势至少有一些好主张民主党人43%共和党人39%登记选民。
Protecting the rights of transgender people 25% Voters. Share calling each a very important or the most important issue. Next: Data centres ›7 of 9 · Data centres 42% want limits on construction 42% say limiting data-centre construction is a very important or the most important issue Registered voters. Data centres power artificial intelligence.
受访者在国会选举中略微倾向民主党，但在哪个党派有好主张的问题上仍存在分歧。下一项：生活成本 ›由 Aniruddha Dhar 制作民主党寄望翻转众议院路透社报道，选前分析师看好民主党赢得众议院控制权，而参议院竞选前景仍不明朗。
Next: Mega donors ›8 of 9 · Mega donors Both parties object to billionaire spending Inappropriate for billionaires to give tens of millions to influence elections 93% of Democrats
民主党需要至少赢得三个众议院席位和四个参议院席位，才能控制两院。民主党在任一院占多数，都可能使特朗普的立法议程复杂化，引发对其政府的调查，并赋予该党在联邦支出和任命方面更大的影响力。
71% of Republicans Registered voters. The ultra-rich face few limits on how much they can spend to influence federal elections. Next: Party ideas ›
参议院争夺战预计将取决于少数势均力敌的竞选，包括密歇根州、缅因州、俄亥俄州、得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州和阿拉斯加州。在密歇根州，民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德将面对共和党人迈克·罗杰斯，此前埃尔-赛义德在初选中击败的民主党众议员海利·史蒂文斯背书支持罗杰斯。特朗普议程面临选民裁决选举在选民对负担能力、经济及政府政策（包括关税和与伊朗的战争）的担忧中展开。路透社报道，这些问题让共和党处于守势，尽管特朗普举行竞选集会并努力激发支持者热情。
9 of 9 · Party ideas Neither party has a clear edge on ideas Have at least some good ideas Democrats 43% Republicans 39% Registered voters. Respondents narrowly favoured Democrats for Congress but remain divided on which party has good ideas. Next: Cost of living ›Created by Aniruddha Dhar Democrats hope to flip the House
特朗普敦促选民将此次选举视为对其总统任期的考验，而共和党正寻求保住其在国会的多数席位，避免出现立法僵局时期。加利福尼亚州选票争议加剧选举紧张局势美国最高法院周一驳回了特朗普政府的请求，拒绝阻止加利福尼亚州统计2万多张有争议的邮寄选票。此前，一名联邦法官下令政府停止要求官员将这些选票搁置。
Pre-election analysts favour Democrats to win control of the House, while the Senate contest remains uncertain, Reuters reported. Democrats need to gain at least three House seats and four Senate seats to take control of both chambers. A Democratic majority in either chamber could complicate Trump’s legislative agenda, trigger investigations into his administration and give the party greater leverage over federal spending and appointments. The Senate battle is expected to hinge on a handful of closely contested races, including Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Alaska. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers after Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who El-Sayed defeated in the primary, endorsed Rogers. Trump’s agenda faces voter verdict The election is unfolding amid voter concerns over affordability, the economy and the administration’s policies, including tariffs and the war with Iran.
天气与投票后勤美国西南部部分地区出现暴雨和山洪，预计将影响科罗拉多州、亚利桑那州、犹他州和新墨西哥州部分地区的投票站通行。纳瓦霍族选举管理人员宣布更改部分投票站地点，而犹他州圣胡安县农村地区的选民被允许电子投票，因为部分选民可能难以到达投票站，美国广播公司新闻网报道。
Reuters reported that these issues have put Republicans on the defensive, despite Trump’s campaign rallies and efforts to energise his supporters. Trump has urged voters to treat the election as a test of his presidency, while Republicans are seeking to preserve their congressional majorities and avoid a period of legislative gridlock. California ballot dispute adds to election tensions The Supreme Court on Monday rejected the Trump administration’s request to stop California from counting more than 20,000 disputed mail-in ballots. The decision followed a federal judge’s order directing the administration to stop demanding that officials set aside the ballots. Weather and voting logistics
选举官员和投票权倡导者还敦促提交晚期缺席选票的选民使用投递箱或亲自送交，因为担心邮政延误可能影响邮戳日期和选票资格。何时能知晓结果？
Heavy rain and flash flooding across parts of the Southwest were expected to affect access to polling places in sections of Colorado, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. Election administrators in the Navajo Nation announced changes to some polling locations, while voters in rural San Juan County, Utah, were allowed to vote electronically because some may have difficulty reaching polling stations, ABC News reported. Election officials and voting-rights advocates have also urged voters submitting late absentee ballots to use drop boxes or deliver them in person, amid concerns that postal delays could affect postmarks and ballot eligibility. When will results be known?
首批结果预计将在周二晚间印第安纳州和肯塔基州部分投票站开始关闭后出现。计票工作将持续整夜，但胶着的竞争可能需要数天才能宣布结果，特别是在邮寄选票数量大或采用排序选择制的州。
The first results are expected after polling stations begin closing on Tuesday evening in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Vote counts will continue through the night, but close races could take days to call, particularly in states with large numbers of mail-in ballots or ranked-choice voting. The outcome could determine whether Trump enters the final two years of his presidency with unified Republican control of Washington or faces a Democratic-controlled Congress capable of blocking legislation and intensifying oversight of his administration.
选举结果可能决定特朗普在其总统任期最后两年是面对统一的共和党控制华盛顿，还是面对民主党控制的国会——后者有能力阻挠立法并强化对其政府的监督。美国大选：国会控制权之争唐纳德·特朗普剩余任期内，谁将控制众议院和参议院？以下是利害关系所在，以及选举之夜将如何展开。
America votes: the fight for Congress Who controls the House and the Senate for the rest of Donald Trump’s term? Here is what is at stake, and how the night will unfold. Seat counts are before the vote. Forecasts are Decision Desk HQ’s, updated Nov 2; they are probabilities, not results. ★Live 435 seats up 35 seats up
席位数为投票前数据。预测为Decision Desk HQ的数据，更新于11月2日；为概率，非结果。★实时435个席位改选35个席位改选36场竞选截至11月1日5310万民主党众院胜算84%、参院胜算64%周三上午5:30（印度标准时间）435个席位改选35个席位改选36场竞选
36 races 53.1 million by Nov 1 Democrats 84% House, 64% Senate 5:30 am IST Wednesday 435 seats up 35 seats up 36 races 53.1 million by Nov 1
53.1 百万票已在 11 月 1 日前投下民主党 84% 众议院，64% 参议院印度标准时间 5:30 am，星期三01 权力平衡众议院 · 435 个席位214 民主党vs 218 共和党民主党 214独立党 1空缺 2共和党 218暂停 播放众议院435 个席位全部在选票上。现状共和党持有 218 个席位。民主党持有 214 个席位。一个席位由独立党持有，另外两个席位为空缺。
Democrats 84% House, 64% Senate 5:30 am IST Wednesday 01The balance of power The House · 435 seats 214Democrats vs 218Republicans Democrats 214 Independent 1 Vacant 2 Republicans 218 Pause Play
控制线需要 218 个席位。01 权力平衡参议院 · 100 个席位47 民主党 + 盟友vs 53 共和党民主党 45独立党 2共和党 53暂停 播放参议院100 个席位中有 35 个在选区。共和党防守 22 个，民主党防守 13 个。现状共和党持有 53 个席位。民主党持有 45 个席位，另外两名独立党议员与他们同党。控制线需要 51 个席位。
The House Every one of the 435 seats is on the ballot. Where it stands Republicans hold 218. Democrats hold 214. One seat is held by an independent and two are vacant. The line Control takes 218 seats. 01The balance of power The Senate · 100 seats 47Democrats + allies vs 53Republicans Democrats 45 Independents 2 Republicans 53 Pause Play The Senate
若 50–50，副总统 JD Vance 以投票权为共和党投票。4民主党需要净增的席位数，才能取得控制权。02 过程投票如何进行
35 of the 100 seats are up. Republicans defend 22 of them, Democrats 13. Where it stands Republicans hold 53. Democrats hold 45, plus two independents who caucus with them. The line Control takes 51.
53.1 百万截至 11 月 1 日星期日凌晨已投下的早期选票：约 2.9 百万亲自投票，2.3 百万邮寄投票。2022 年整个中期选举的早期投票总数为 4.6 百万。2026 年，至 11 月 1 日
At 50–50, Vice President JD Vance breaks ties for Republicans. 4 The net number of seats Democrats must gain, , to take control. 02The process How the vote works 53.1million ballots cast early by Sunday morning, Nov 1: about 29 million in person and 23 million by mail. The whole 2022 midterm early vote was 46 million.
53.1 百万2022 年，整个早期投票
2026, by Nov 1 53.1m 2022, whole early vote
4.6 百万佛罗里达大学分析，来源《半岛电视台》。早期投票不显示人们投给谁。IVOTED★ ★ ★ 1早期和邮寄投票选票已连续数周投递。各州规则不同。2选举日，11 月 3 日投票站在六个时区以波浪式关闭，从印第安纳州和肯塔基州部分地区的东部时间 6 pm 开始，到阿拉斯加阿留申群岛的 1 am。3计票与结果公布新闻机构根据部分计票结果预测赢家；这些预测并非官方。
46m University of Florida analysis, via Al Jazeera. Early votes do not show who people voted for. IVOTED★ ★ ★1 Early and mail voting Ballots have been coming in for weeks. Rules vary by state. 2 Election Day, Nov 3 Polls close in waves across six time zones, from 6 pm Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky to 1 am in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. 3 Counting and calls News organisations project winners from partial counts; those calls are not official. Mail ballots can take days: Oregon counts ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive within seven days. 4
邮寄选票可能需要数天：俄勒冈州计数在选举日后七天内到达的邮戳选票。4决选与分级投票若没有参议院候选人获得多数，佐治亚州将于 12 月 1 日举行决选。阿拉斯加使用分级投票。5认证各州在投票后数周内认证官方结果。6 2027 年 1 月 3 日新国会宣誓就职。
Runoffs and ranked choice Georgia holds a runoff on Dec 1 if no Senate candidate wins a majority. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. 5 Certification States certify official results in the weeks after the vote. 6 Jan 3, 2027 The new Congress is sworn in. Closing times and counting rules per Political.org (Oct 27). 03How to vote How Americans cast their ballot on Nov 3 1 Check you are registered
关闭时间与计票规则（Political.org，10月27日）03 如何投票美国人如何在11月3日投票1检查你是否已注册通过 vote.gov 查询你的注册状态，该网站链接到每个州的选举办公室。有些州允许你在选举日当天注册。2找到你的投票站你所在州或县的选举网站会列出投票站。自上一次选举以来，它可能已搬迁。3如果你所在州要求身份证，请携带身份证规则由各州制定。
Look up your status through vote.gov, which links to every state’s election office. Some states let you register on Election Day itself. 2 Find your polling place Your state or county election website lists it. It may have moved since the last election. 3 Bring ID if your state asks ID rules are set by each state. Some require photo ID, others accept a utility bill or a signature. 4 Vote Polling hours are set by each state. If you are in line when polls close, stay in line: you can still vote. 5
有些州要求带照片身份证，其他州则接受水电费账单或签名。4投票投票时间由各州设定。如果你在投票站排队时投票站已关闭，仍可留在队伍中投票。5名字不在名单上？
Name not on the list? Ask for a provisional ballot. Federal law gives you that right; officials check your eligibility afterwards. 6 Voting by mail? Deadlines differ. Some states need the ballot to arrive by Election Day; others count it if it is postmarked by then. Not a US citizen? Only US citizens can vote in federal elections. Green-card holders and people on H-1B, F-1 or other visas cannot vote in them. A US citizen living in India?
请索取临时选票。联邦法律赋予你此权利；工作人员随后会核查你的资格。6邮寄投票？
Americans abroad vote absentee through the Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP.gov). Ballot return deadlines depend on the state where you last lived. Guidance from vote.gov, the US Election Assistance Commission and FVAP. Rules vary by state: check your state election office. 04The forecast Democrats favoured in the House.
截止日期各不相同。有些州要求选票在选举日之前到达；其他州只要在那时已邮戳即可计入。非美国公民？
The Senate is closer House 84% chance Democrats win control Projected 241 Democratic seats · 218 needed Senate 64% chance Democrats win control
只有美国公民才能在联邦选举中投票。绿卡持有者以及持有H‑1B、F‑1或其他签证的人不能投票。在印度居住的美国公民？
Projected 52 Democratic seats · 51 needed Decision Desk HQ forecast, updated Nov 2. Blue: chance of a Democratic majority; red: Republican. A 64% chance still misses about one time in three. 05Reality check Why Democrats may fall short of a landslide 40–50 competitive House seats
海外美国人通过联邦投票协助计划（FVAP.gov）投递缺席选票。选票归还截止日期取决于你最后居住的州。
Analysts estimate only 40 to 50 of the 435 seats are truly competitive. Many expect a Democratic majority of perhaps 5 to 20 seats. 10 pts still not enough? Even a 10-point national swing would likely leave Democrats two Senate seats short, says Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman.
来自 vote.gov、美国选举援助委员会和FVAP 的指导。规则因州而异：请查阅你所在州的选举办公室。04 预测众议院民主党占优。参议院则更接近平衡众议院84%民主党赢得控制权的概率预计241个民主党席位 · 需要218个参议院64%民主党赢得控制权的概率预计52个民主党席位 · 需要51个Decision Desk HQ 预测，更新于11月2日。
2×older voters In 2022, voters aged 50 and over made up nearly twice as much of the electorate as those under 50. Older voters have leaned Republican. $188m ad gap Republicans outspent Democrats by $188 million on Senate battleground ads by the end of September (AdImpact). Trump spent more than $277 million, mostly via MAGA Inc; Elon Musk about $366 million this cycle. 47–35 generic ballot Reuters/Ipsos polling shows registered voters favouring Democrats 47% to 35%. But polls have often underestimated Republicans, most of all when Trump was on the ballot.
蓝色：民主党多数的概率；红色：共和党。64%的概率仍意味着约三分之一的机会未达成。05 现实检验为什么民主党可能无法实现压倒性胜利40–50竞争激烈的众议院席位分析师估计，435个席位中只有40到50个真正竞争激烈。许多人预计民主党可能以5到20个席位的优势取得多数。10 分还不够吗？
1–2 pts the “socialist” label Republican attacks painting Democrats as socialists could cut the Democratic edge by one or two points in close races, says former Clinton adviser Bill Galston. Reasons given by analysts and strategists to Reuters, Nov 2. 06Four endings Pick an outcome Tap an outcome to see what it would mean 62%Democrats win both 21%Democratic House, Republican Senate 15%Republicans keep both 2%Republican House, Democratic Senate 62% of simulations end with: Democrats win both HouseDemocratic SenateDemocratic What it could mean
Cook Political Report 的 David Wasserman 表示，即使全国投票出现 10 分的倾斜，民主党仍可能缺少两席参议院席位。2×老年选民2022 年，50 岁及以上的选民占选民总数的近两倍。老年选民倾向于共和党。$188m广告差距截至九月底，共和党在参议院摇摆区的广告支出比民主党多 1.88 亿美元（AdImpact）。特朗普花费超过 2.77 亿美元，主要通过 MAGA Inc；埃隆·马斯克本轮竞选约 3.66 亿美元。
Democrats control Senate committees, judicial confirmations and cabinet nominations They would likely block many of Trump’s judicial nominees Trump keeps his veto, and most bills still need 60 Senate votes 21% of simulations end with: Democratic House, Republican Senate HouseDemocratic SenateRepublican What it could mean Democrats gain House committees, subpoena power and the ability to investigate the administration Senate Republicans can block most Democratic priorities Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Oct 20 there would be “very little” a Democratic House could do to block Trump’s agenda A 50–50 Senate also stays Republican, and a few swing senators become kingmakers 15%
47–35通用投票路透社/爱普斯调查显示，登记选民支持民主党 47% 对 35%。但民调往往低估共和党，尤其是当特朗普在选票上时。1–2 分“社会主义者”标签前克林顿顾问比尔·加尔斯顿表示，共和党攻击将民主党描绘为社会主义者，可能在激烈竞争中削弱民主党的优势一到两分。分析师和策略师给出的理由，路透社，11 月 2 日。
of simulations end with: Republicans keep both HouseRepublican SenateRepublican What it could mean Trump and Republicans would claim a fresh mandate Trump would face few congressional constraints on nominees and appointments The risk of shutdown and debt-ceiling showdowns would ease 2% of simulations end with: Republican House, Democratic Senate HouseRepublican SenateDemocratic
06 四种结局选择结果点击结果查看其含义62% 民主党赢得两院21% 民主党众议院，共和党参议院15% 共和党保留两院2% 共和党众议院，民主党参议院62%模拟结果显示：民主党赢得两院众议院 民主党参议院 民主党可能意味着民主党控制参议院委员会、司法确认和内阁提名他们可能阻止特朗普的许多司法提名特朗普保留否决权，且大多数法案仍需 60 票参议院通过21%模拟结果显示：民主党众议院，共和党参议院众议院 民主党参议院 共和党可能意味着民主党获得众议院委员会、传票权和调查政府的能力参议院共和党可阻止大多数民主党优先事项财政部长斯科特·贝森特在 10 月 20 日表示，民主党众议院几乎无法阻止特朗普议程50–50 的参议院仍保持共和党控制，少数摇摆参议员成为关键人物15% 的模拟结果显示：众议院和参议院均由共和党控制众议院共和党参议院共和党可能意味着特朗普和共和党将声称获得新的授权特朗普在提名和任命方面将面临很少的国会制约政府停摆和债务上限对峙的风险将减轻2% 的模拟结果显示：众议院共和党，参议院民主党众议院共和党参议院民主党可能意味着预测者认为这是最不可能的结果，路透社未给出该情景的说明。
What it could mean Forecasters see this as the least likely outcome, and Reuters did not set out a scenario for it. Share of Decision Desk HQ simulations, Nov 2.
Decision Desk HQ 2023年11月2日的模拟份额。每种结果可能意味着什么：路透社情景，2023年11月2日。07 争夺战控制权将在哪决定美国 堪萨斯州 爱荷华州 俄亥俄州 美国参议院摇摆众议院摇摆的州暂停 播放参议院摇摆Decision Desk HQ 将三场参议院竞选评为摇摆。三席目前均由共和党人占据。堪萨斯州罗杰·马歇尔（R，现任）vs 亚当·汉密尔顿（D）民主党胜算 50%爱荷华州阿什利·海森（R）vs 乔什·图雷克（D）。
What each outcome could mean: Reuters scenarios, Nov 2. 07The battleground Where control will be decided United StatesKansasIowaOhioUnited States Senate toss-up State with a House toss-up Pause Play Senate toss-ups Decision Desk HQ rates three Senate races as toss-ups. All three seats are held by Republicans now. Kansas Roger Marshall (R, incumbent) vs Adam Hamilton (D) 50%Democratic chance Iowa
空缺席位：乔尼·恩斯特不参选民主党胜算 53%俄亥俄州乔恩·哈斯特（R，任命）vs 谢罗德·布朗（D），特别选举民主党胜算 55%众议院摇摆十个众议院席位为摇摆，每个席位的民主党胜算在 51% 至 58% 之间。
Ashley Hinson (R) vs Josh Turek (D). Open seat: Joni Ernst is not running 53%Democratic chance
FL-22 TX-15 TX-35 IA-2 ME-2 MT-1 OH-7 PA-1 CO-3 NC-11 Decision Desk HQ，2023年11月2日。08 众议院竞选十场可能决定多数的众议院竞选滑动 →科罗拉多州 8加布·埃文斯 ★马尼·鲁蒂内尔特朗普在 2024 年以 1.8 点优势赢得该区。该区近 40% 为西班牙裔。佛罗里达州 25贾里德·莫斯科维茨 斯科特·辛格由佛罗里达共和党人重新划分；特朗普在新区以 9 至 10 点优势获胜。
Ohio Jon Husted (R, appointed) vs Sherrod Brown (D), special election 55%Democratic chance House toss-ups Ten House seats are toss-ups, each with a 51% to 58% Democratic chance. FL-22TX-15TX-35IA-2ME-2MT-1OH-7PA-1CO-3NC-11 Decision Desk HQ, Nov 2. 08House races Ten House races that could decide the majority Swipe →Colorado 8
莫斯科维茨是现任民主党众议员。爱荷华州 1玛丽安妮特·米勒-米克斯 ★克里斯蒂娜·博汉南第三次对决：博汉南在 2022 年和 2024 年均失利。民主党在竞选上比共和党多花 1100 万美元对 700 万美元。缅因州 2保罗·勒佩奇 马特·邓拉普空缺：民主党人贾里德·戈尔登正在退休。特朗普以 9 点优势获胜。预测者将其评为偏向共和党。
Gabe Evans ★Manny Rutinel Trump won it by 1.8 points in 2024. The district is nearly 40% Hispanic. Florida 25 Jared MoskowitzScott Singer Redrawn by Florida Republicans; Trump carried the new district by 9 to 10 points. Moskowitz is a sitting Democratic congressman. Iowa 1 Mariannette Miller-Meeks ★Christina Bohannan Their third contest: Bohannan lost in 2022 and 2024. Democrats have outspent Republicans $11m to $7m. Maine 2 Paul LePageMatt Dunlap Open: Democrat Jared Golden is retiring. Trump won it by 9 points.
蒙大拿州 1 号选区阿隆·弗林特（Aaron Flint）萨姆·福尔斯塔格（Sam Forstag）开放：瑞安·辛克（Ryan Zinke）未参选。特朗普以近 12 分之差获胜；十月的两项民调显示福尔斯塔格略占优势。北卡罗来纳州 1 号选区唐·戴维斯（Don Davis）★劳里·巴克霍特（Laurie Buckhout）共和党人将其从特朗普以 3 分之差赢得的选区重新划分为他以两位数之差赢得的选区。
Forecasters rate it lean Republican. Montana 1 Aaron FlintSam Forstag Open: Ryan Zinke is not running. Trump won by nearly 12 points; two October polls showed Forstag narrowly ahead. North Carolina 1 Don Davis ★Laurie Buckhout Republicans redrew it from a seat Trump won by 3 points into one he carried by double digits. New York 17
纽约州 17 号选区迈克·劳勒（Mike Lawler）★凯特·康利（Cait Conley）这是 2024 年卡玛拉·哈里斯赢得的三个位于共和党手中的席位之一，使劳勒成为最易受攻击的众议院共和党人。俄亥俄州 7 号选区马克斯·米勒（Max Miller）★布莱恩·波因德克斯特（Brian Poindexter）曾经安全的共和党席位现在被视为摇摆不定。
Mike Lawler ★Cait Conley One of three Republican-held seats Kamala Harris won in 2024, making Lawler the most vulnerable House Republican. Ohio 7 Max Miller ★Brian Poindexter A once-safe Republican seat now seen as a toss-up. Democrats have spent about $12m to Republicans’ $6m.
民主党已投入约 1200 万美元，民主党对共和党投入约 600 万美元。德克萨斯州 15 号选区莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹（Monica De La Cruz）★鲍比·普利多（Bobby Pulido）特朗普以 18 分之差获胜。上个月的一项民调显示，特哈诺音乐明星普利多以 7 分领先。华盛顿州 3 号选区玛丽·格鲁森坎普·佩雷斯（Marie Gluesenkamp Perez）★约翰·布劳恩（John Braun）一位中间派民主党人在特朗普仅以微弱优势赢得的选区中竞选。
Texas 15 Monica De La Cruz ★Bobby Pulido Trump won it by 18 points. A poll last month showed Pulido, a Tejano music star, ahead by 7. Washington 3 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez ★John Braun A centrist Democrat in a district Trump narrowly won. Braun led the top-two primary. ★ incumbent. Races selected by Reuters, Nov 2. 09Key candidates Seven more Senate races to watch
布劳恩在两人制初选中领先。★ 现任。由路透社于 11 月 2 日挑选的竞选。09 关键候选人七场参议院选举值得关注德克萨斯州、缅因州、阿拉斯加州、北卡罗来纳州、佐治亚州、密歇根州、北汉普郡德克萨斯州JT詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）民主党VS KP肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）共和党帕克斯顿在共和党初选决选中击败参议员约翰·科尔宁。
TexasMaineAlaskaN. CarolinaGeorgiaMichiganN. Hampshire Texas JT James TalaricoDemocrat VS KP Ken PaxtonRepublican Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn in a Republican primary runoff. Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024. Recent polls show Talarico narrowly ahead or tied.
特朗普在 2024 年以近 14 分之差赢得德克萨斯州。最近的民调显示塔拉里科略占优势或持平。缅因州TJ特洛伊·杰克逊（Troy Jackson）民主党VS SC苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）共和党，现任杰克逊取代已退出的格雷厄姆·普拉特纳。缅因州在 2024 年投票反对特朗普。最近的民调显示竞争激烈。阿拉斯加州MP玛丽·佩尔托拉（Mary Peltola）民主党VS DS丹·沙利文（Dan Sullivan）共和党，现任阿拉斯加采用排名选择投票。
Maine TJ Troy JacksonDemocrat VS SC Susan CollinsRepublican, incumbent Jackson replaced Graham Platner, who withdrew. Maine voted against Trump in 2024. Recent polls show a close race. Alaska MP Mary PeltolaDemocrat VS DS Dan SullivanRepublican, incumbent Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. Trump won it by 13 points in 2024. Recent polls show Peltola narrowly ahead.
特朗普在 2024 年以 13 分之差获胜。最近的民调显示佩尔托拉略占优势。北卡罗来纳州RC罗伊·库珀（Roy Cooper）民主党VS MW迈克尔·沃特利（Michael Whatley）共和党开放席位：托姆·蒂利斯（R）退休。特朗普在 2024 年以 3 分之差获胜。最近的民调显示库珀以两位数之差领先。佐治亚州JO乔恩·奥索夫（Jon Ossoff）民主党，现任VS MC迈克·柯林斯（Mike Collins）共和党特朗普在 2024 年以 2 分之差获胜。
N. Carolina RC Roy CooperDemocrat VS MW Michael WhatleyRepublican Open seat: Thom Tillis (R) is retiring. Trump won by 3 points in 2024. Recent polls show Cooper ahead by double digits. Georgia JO Jon OssoffDemocrat, incumbent VS MC Mike CollinsRepublican Trump won by 2 points in 2024. Polls have consistently shown Ossoff ahead. Michigan AE
民调始终显示奥索夫领先。密歇根州AE阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）民主党VS MR迈克·罗杰斯共和党空缺席位：加里·彼得斯（民主党）将退休。特朗普在2024年赢得密歇根州。最近的民调显示埃尔-赛义德微弱领先。新罕布什尔州CP克里斯·帕帕斯民主党对阵JS约翰·E·苏努努共和党空缺席位：珍妮·沙欣（民主党）将退休。哈里斯以近3个百分点获胜。民调显示帕帕斯领先5至8个百分点。
Abdul El-SayedDemocrat VS MR Mike RogersRepublican Open seat: Gary Peters (D) is retiring. Trump won Michigan in 2024. Recent polls show El-Sayed narrowly ahead. N. Hampshire CP Chris PappasDemocrat VS JS John E. SununuRepublican Open seat: Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring. Kamala Harris won by nearly 3 points. Polls have shown Pappas ahead by 5 to 8 points. Tap a state. Candidates, 2024 margins and polling direction as reported by Al Jazeera, Oct 31. 10Governors 36 states pick a governor. Races to watch Arizona Katie Hobbs ★Andy Biggs
点击一个州。候选人、2024年胜选差距和民调走向，据半岛电视台10月31日报道。10州长36个州选举州长。值得关注的竞选亚利桑那州凯蒂·霍布斯 ★安迪·比格斯佐治亚州凯莎·兰斯·博托姆斯里克·杰克逊密歇根州乔瑟琳·本森约翰·詹姆斯威斯康星州大卫·克劳利汤姆·蒂法尼内华达州亚伦·福特乔·隆巴多 ★爱荷华州罗布·桑德扎克·拉恩堪萨斯州辛迪·霍尔舍泰·马斯特森蓝色：民主党。
Georgia Keisha Lance Bottoms Rick Jackson Michigan Jocelyn Benson John James Wisconsin David Crowley Tom Tiffany Nevada Aaron Ford Joe Lombardo ★
红色：共和党。★ 现任。竞争激烈的竞选由库克政治报告于8月27日列出。俄亥俄州在下一节。11印度因素印度裔美国人名字出现在选票上VR维韦克·拉马斯瓦米俄亥俄州州长共和党提名人，该席位为空缺，对阵民主党人艾米·阿克顿。4四位众议院民主党人罗·卡纳、普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔、阿米·贝拉和苏哈斯·苏布拉马尼亚姆均在选票上。
Iowa Rob Sand Zach Lahn Kansas Cindy Holscher Ty Masterson Blue: Democrat. Red: Republican. ★ incumbent. Competitive races as listed by Cook Political Report, Aug 27. Ohio is in the next section. 11The India angle Indian-American names on the ballot VR Vivek Ramaswamy Republican nominee for governor of Ohio, an open seat, against Democrat Amy Acton. 4 Four House Democrats Ro Khanna, Pramila Jayapal, Ami Bera and Suhas Subramanyam are all on the ballot. 12Also on the ballot
12选票上的其他内容堕胎议题在四个州的选票上密苏里州修正案3将废除选民于2024年通过的堕胎权修正案。是否内华达州问题6将把堕胎权写入州宪法。选民曾在2024年批准一次；第二次投赞成票即最终确立。是否弗吉尼亚州一项修正案将保护就自身怀孕做决定的权利。是否爱达荷州一项提案将设立法定堕胎权，直到胎儿具备生存能力。
Abortion is on the ballot in four states Missouri Amendment 3 would repeal the abortion-rights amendment voters passed in 2024. Yes No Nevada Question 6 would put a right to abortion in the state constitution. Voters approved it once in 2024; a second yes finalises it. Yes No Virginia An amendment would protect the right to make decisions about one’s own pregnancy. Yes No Idaho An initiative would create a statutory right to abortion until viability.
是否据州法院报告（布伦南中心），更新于7月27日。各州还将就税收、投票门槛和其他问题投票。13值得关注选举之夜五大看点1早期线索佛罗里达州和弗吉尼亚州共和党把持的众议院选区结果，可能显示民主党获益的幅度。若在更倾向共和党的选区获胜，将表明存在更广泛的反弹。2参议院的算术控制权很可能取决于六到八场竞争。
Yes No Per State Court Report (Brennan Center), updated Jul 27. States also vote on taxes, voting thresholds and other questions. 13What to watch Five things to watch on the night 1 Early clues Results from Republican-held House seats in Florida and Virginia could show the size of any Democratic gains. Wins in more Republican-leaning seats would point to a broader backlash. 2 The Senate math Control will likely hinge on six to eight races. Democrats need to flip seats in states Trump won by double digits, such as Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas, and will likely need to hold Michigan and pick up Maine. 3 Federal monitors
民主党需要在特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州（如俄亥俄、爱荷华、阿拉斯加和得克萨斯）翻盘夺席，并很可能需要守住密歇根、拿下缅因州。3联邦监察员司法部计划派出约1000名监察员，数量约为上届中期选举的三倍。一些地方官员担心这可能恐吓选民；司法部称这些担忧毫无根据。4认证之争10月22日，司法部起诉以阻止阿拉斯加在共和党现任议员以微弱劣势落败时认证其参议院结果，理由是有两名名字几乎相同的候选人。
The Justice Department plans to send about 1,000 monitors, roughly triple the number at the last midterms. Some local officials worry that could intimidate voters; the department says those fears are baseless. 4 Certification fights On Oct 22, the Justice Department sued to block Alaska from certifying its Senate result if the Republican incumbent loses narrowly, citing two candidates with almost identical names. Attorney General Todd Blanche has not ruled out intervening in certifications. 5 Trump’s response In 2020, Trump declared victory before counting had finished. How he responds this time, especially if Republicans lose a chamber, could be one of the night’s biggest stories. Reuters, Nov 2. 14Election night
司法部长托德·布兰奇未排除干预认证的可能性。5特朗普的反应2020年，特朗普在计票未结束前宣称胜利。他此次如何回应，尤其是如果共和党失去一个议院的控制权，可能成为当晚最大的新闻之一。路透社，11月2日。14选举之夜在印度，投票站于周三黎明开始关闭美国东部时间暂停 播放美国东部时间晚上7:00 · 印度标准时间上午5:30佐治亚、弗吉尼亚、南卡罗来纳、佛蒙特美国东部时间晚上7:30 · 印度标准时间上午6:00北卡罗来纳、俄亥俄、西弗吉尼亚美国东部时间晚上8:00 · 印度标准时间上午6:30宾夕法尼亚、缅因、得克萨斯、密歇根大部美国东部时间午夜 · 印度标准时间上午10:30阿拉斯加大部随后等待不要指望周二晚上得出最终答案。2022年，众议院控制权直到11月16日才宣布，距投票已过去八天。
In India, polls start closing at dawn on Wednesday Eastern time Pause Play 7:00 pm ET · 5:30 am IST Georgia, Virginia, South Carolina, Vermont 7:30 pm ET · 6:00 am IST North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia 8:00 pm ET · 6:30 am IST Pennsylvania, Maine, Texas, most of Michigan Midnight ET · 10:30 am IST Most of Alaska Then wait Do not expect a final answer on Tuesday night. In 2022, House control was called on Nov 16, eight days after the vote. Closing times per Political.org (Oct 27). IST is Eastern time plus 10 hours 30 minutes, Wednesday Nov 4. 15After Tuesday
关闭时间据Political.org（10月27日）。印度标准时间为美国东部时间加10小时30分，即11月4日周三。15周二之后什么会变，什么不会变控制权变化谁担任委员会主席并主持听证会谁设定立法议程各议院能通过什么法案调查：民主党获胜可能引发对政府的调查，包括移民执法和伊朗战争保持不变特朗普担任总统直到2029年1月他的否决权依然有效：推翻否决需要两院各三分之二多数大多数参议院法案仍需60票分析人士告诉路透社，无论哪种情况，2027年都可能出现债务上限和拨款斗争众议院全部席位。35个参议院席位。36个州长。一夜定乾坤。分享此文
What changes, and what does not What control changes Who chairs committees and runs hearings Who sets the legislative agenda What can pass each chamber Investigations: Democratic wins would likely bring probes into the administration, including immigration enforcement and the Iran war What stays the same Trump is president until January 2029 His veto stands: overriding it needs two-thirds of both chambers Most Senate bills still need 60 votes Debt-ceiling and funding fights are likely in 2027 either way, analysts told Reuters Every House seat. 35 Senate seats. 36 governors. One night. Share this story Created by Aniruddha Dhar (With inputs from agencies)