欢迎来到“Strength In Numbers”2026年选举日直播博客！本页面是您获取选举日所有数据驱动评论的一站式商店。为您提供几个链接和提醒：首先，我为SIN撰写的最后一份选前简报在此。就选前预期而言，最终结论是：如果民调和早期投票预测哪怕接近正确，我们将迎来一场巨大的蓝色浪潮，近乎海啸，这将使众议院易手，并极有可能（尽管不保证）将参议院控制权从共和党翻转至民主党。
Welcome to the Strength In Numbers Election Day live blog! This page is your one-stop shop for all things data-driven commentary on Election Day 2026. A few links and reminders for you: First, my last pre-election dispatch for SIN is here. The final word in terms of pre-election expectations is that if the polls and early vote forecasts are anywhere close to right, we’re in for a big blue wave, verging on a tsunami, which would flip at least the House and probably (though not guaranteed) the Senate from Republican to Democratic control.
但只要出现正常规模的民调误差，共和党就能守住参议院——请见我们的互动图表——考虑到近期的偏差，这并不令人意外。而且，顺便说一句，民调也可能低估民主党——这种情况最近一次发生在2022年！
But it would take a normal-sized polling error for Republicans to hold the Senate — see our interactive chart here — which would not be that surprising given recent misses. And hey, for what it’s worth, polls could also understate Democrats — it happened as recently as 2022!
其次，如果您是付费订阅者，请加入我们的Discord。Discord是一款应用程序，能让您进入一个与“Strength In Numbers”其他付费会员共同交流的论坛/聊天室/社区，您可以通过手机或网页浏览器访问并发帖。关于如何设置的详情请见此处。
Second, join us on Discord if you’re a paying subscriber. Discord is an app that puts you in a forum/chat room/community with other paying members of Strength In Numbers, which you can access and post from on your phone or web browser. Details on how to set this up are here.
对于不想注册Discord账号的付费订阅者，我将在下方全天发布见解。但您必须在网页浏览器中打开此页面，并全天不时刷新。
I will be posting insights below throughout the day for those paying subscribers who do not want to make an account on Discord. But you’ll have to open this page in your internet browser and refresh it throughout the day.
最后，随着选举日过渡到选举之夜，请于美国东部时间下午6:45加入我们，共同观看《The Downballot》与“Strength In Numbers”联合直播的评论与结果分析。我们在2025年的一些特别选举和州长选举中这样做过，非常有趣。我们将在Substack Live和YouTube上同步直播，绝无广告。更多详情请阅读此处。嘿！
Finally, as Election Day turns to Election Night, join us at 6:45 PM Eastern for the joint The Downballot x Strength In Numbers livestream of commentary and results analysis. We did this with some of the special and gubernatorial elections in 2025, and it was a lot of fun. We’ll be streaming on Substack Live and on YouTube, with absolutely no commercials. Read here for more details. So hey!
今天是选举日！恭喜，我们熬过来了！就是现在；这就是我们早起的理由；这就是我们要做的事。
It’s Election Day! Congrats, we made it! This is it; this is why we get up in the morning; this is what we do.
废话不多说，直播博客开始。我马上就要出门去投票了（我的投票站离家门口只有五分钟步行路程），等我回来后，我将开始在这里追踪事态发展并更新帖子。
Without further ado, on with the live blog. I’m heading out of the house to vote shortly (my polling place is a five-minute walk from my front door), and when I get back, I will start tracking things and updating posts here.
Elliott 直播博客帖子 因为这个直播博客将包含一些我也不可避免地会在付费订阅者专属 Discord 上分享或从中借用的内容，所以这篇帖子必须限制为仅付费订阅者可见。
Elliott Live blog posts Because this live blog will contain some content I will also inevitably share on or borrow from the subscribers-only Discord, this post has to be limited to paying subscribers.
订阅 Strength In Numbers 的付费会员制有助于支付原创民调数据、用于早期投票预测的选民档案获取权以及额外定制分析等费用，并资助我投入该项目的时间。付费订阅者可进入 Discord 上志同道合的读者私密社区，并每周至少收到一次额外的独家深度分析。总有一天，您的支持甚至可能帮助 Strength In Numbers 发展成为一个更大、多人运营的机构！
A paying subscription to Strength In Numbers helps pay for things like original polling data, access to voter files for early voting forecasts and extra bespoke analysis, and funds my time spent on this project. Paying subscribers get access to a private community of like-minded readers on Discord and be sent additional exclusive premium analysis at least once weekly. One day, your support may even help Strength In Numbers grow into a bigger, multi-person business!
如果您认同数据与民主的价值观——即人多力量大——请注册获取本刊物的免费邮件，并考虑成为付费订阅者以支持我的使命。本社区的支持会员通过资助分析工作所需的时间和数据收集，维持了 Strength In Numbers 的运营。
If you believe in the values of data and democracy — that there is, ahem, strength in numbers — please sign up to get free emails from this publication and consider becoming a paying subscriber to support my mission. Supporting members of this community keep Strength In Numbers running by supporting the time and data collection it takes to do analyses like this one.
请在今晚（11月3日）23:59 前行动，可享受年度订阅 8 折优惠：
Act before 11:59 PM tonight, Nov. 3, and you can get 20% off a yearly subscription: