初次来访？《Strength In Numbers》是一份独立的、数据驱动的出版物，分析美国政治和选举，经常使用我们自行收集或资助的原始数据集。SIN 主要由我撰写，我是 G. Elliott Morris，一本关于民调与民主的书的作者，曾任《经济学人》数据记者和 ABC News 旗下 FiveThirtyEight 负责人。我经营自己的民调公司，也为网站 FiftyPlusOne.news 做预测，该网站自上月起成为 MS NOW（原 MSNBC）的独家民调和选举数据分析供应商。
New here? Strength In Numbers is an independent, data-driven publication that analyzes U.S. politics and elections, often using original datasets we collect or fund ourselves. SIN is written primarily by me, G. Elliott Morris, the author of a book about polls and democracy and formerly a data journalist at The Economist and head of FiveThirtyEight at ABC News. I run my own polling company and also do forecasts for the website FiftyPlusOne.news, which, as of last month, is the exclusive polling and elections data analysis supplier for MS NOW (formerly MSNBC).
如果你认同数据与民主的价值观——即，咳咳，人多力量大——请注册获取本出版物的免费邮件，并考虑成为付费订阅者以支持我的使命。你将获得一个志同道合的读者私有 Discord 社区的访问权，并每周至少收到一次独家深度分析。付费会员通过支持进行此类分析所需的时间和数据收集，维持《Strength In Numbers》的运营。
If you believe in the values of data and democracy — that there is, ahem, strength in numbers — please sign up to get free emails from this publication and consider becoming a paying subscriber to support my mission. You’ll get access to a private community of like-minded readers on Discord and be sent additional exclusive premium analysis at least once weekly. Paying members of this community keep Strength In Numbers running by supporting the time and data collection it takes to do analyses like this one.
如果你在今晚 11:59 前（11 月 3 日）行动，可享受年度订阅 8 折优惠！
If you act before 11:59 PM tonight, Nov. 3, you can get 20% off a yearly subscription!
无论你选择免费还是付费订阅，我都很高兴你来到这里。我们正在《Strength In Numbers》打造一些新的、特别的东西，每一位新成员的加入，都是一位相信数据与民主力量的人！
Regardless of the subscription level you choose, free or paid, I’m glad you’re here. We’re building something new and special here at Strength In Numbers, and every addition to our ranks is a person who believes in the power of data and democracy!
此时，从统计学角度来看，民主党注定将迎来一个辉煌的选举之夜，这已是不可否认的事实。几乎每一个定量指标都表明，民主党将赢得众议院，并且比不赢更有可能——尽管距离“必赢”还很远——赢得参议院。
At this point, it is statistically undeniable that Democrats are set up for a big election night. Almost every quantitative indicator suggests Democrats are going to win the House and are more likely than not — though a far way from certain — to win the Senate.
因此，我的预测模型显示，民主党在两院都赢得多数席位的几率约为 80%，这得益于在原本非常红的地区取得的巨大进展。而在关键摇摆州的早期投票显示，民主党的投票率优势至少与 2018 年一样大。
Accordingly, my forecasting model gives Democrats a roughly 8-in-10 chance of winning majorities in both chambers, thanks to huge gains in otherwise very red areas of the country. And the early vote in key swing states shows a Democratic turnout edge at least as big as 2018’s.
但民调也会出错，典型的参议院民调误差约为 3 个百分点，这足以使参议院席位易手数席。
But polls miss, and a typical Senate poll error of about 3 points is enough to swing the Senate by several seats.
因此，在我们等待计票的同时，我能做的有用的事，是给你们提供一种方法，追踪今天下午和晚上的局势发展。在讨论最终预测后，我将介绍我那套比朋友们更早宣布结果的“万无一失”方法。
So the useful thing for me to do, while we all wait for the votes to be counted, is to give you some way to track how things are going this afternoon and evening. After discussing the final forecast, I discuss my foolproof method for beating your friends to the call.
我在 FiveThirtyEight 任职时，我们会把这类文章称为“开场白”——正戏开演前的预览。所以思路是：你们先读这篇文章，然后去 Strength In Numbers 的实时博客看当天的主要内容。当然，那要等到一天晚些时候，等我们真正有数据可分析时才会真正热闹起来。
When I was running FiveThirtyEight, we would call posts like these “curtain-raisers” — previews before the main attraction. So the idea is that you will read this post, and then head on over to the Strength In Numbers live blog for the main content of the day. Of course, that’ll really get going much later in the day, once we actually have data to analyze.
也请参加我与 The Downballot 和 FiftyPlusOne 团队的大选之夜直播，美国东部时间下午 6:45 准时开始，就在这里的 Strength In Numbers 网站上，或通过 Substack 应用观看。我们知道大选之夜你们有很多地方可去，但我们认为我们的联合直播将是你们能获得的娱乐性与资讯性最佳结合。而且全程完全没有广告。
Please also join me for an election night livestream with the teams from The Downballot and FiftyPlusOne at 6:45 p.m. ET, right here on the Strength In Numbers website or via the Substack app. We know there are a lot of places you could be on election night, but we think our joint offering will be the best combination of entertainment and information that you can get. It will also be entirely free of commercials.
届时将有大量咖啡和剩下的万圣节糖果。点击下方将提醒保存至日历：Apple | Google | Office 365 | Outlook | Outlook.com | Yahoo 最终民调显示什么 本文供 Strength In Numbers 注册读者免费阅读。下一页无需付费（当然，支持这项工作我们不胜感激）；只需输入电子邮箱即可获取访问权限。
There will be a lot of caffeine and leftover Halloween candy. Click below to save a reminder to your calendar: Apple | Google | Office 365 | Outlook | Outlook.com | Yahoo What the final polls are showing This article is free for registered readers of Strength In Numbers. On the next screen, you do not need to pay (of course, supporting this work is appreciated); you just need to enter your email for access.