在选举日时间膨胀将我们整个吞没之前，有几个节目提醒：首先！以 8 折优惠订阅 Strength In Numbers 年度会员的时间所剩无几。选举季是我们每两年一次的重大新闻事件，坦白说，也是 SIN 营收最大的来源。现在加入正当时，能从订阅中获得特别价值 —— 付费会员周二晚可在直播中实时提问 —— 而且您的会员资格将帮助 Strength In Numbers 在淡季维持运营。
A few programming reminders before the Election Day time dilation swallows us all whole: First! Time is running out to claim your 20% off an annual subscription to Strength In Numbers. The election season is our big news event every two years and, frankly, where SIN makes the most of its revenue. Now is a great time to join and get special value out of your subscription — paying members will be able to ask questions live during our livestream Tuesday night — plus your membership will help keep Strength In Numbers going in the off-season.
如果您重视独立、数据驱动的选举报道，现在就是支持它的最佳时机。立即以 8 折优惠订阅，周二晚我们在聊天区见！
If you value independent, data-driven election coverage, now is the best time to support it. today for 20% off, and we’ll see you in the chat on Tuesday night!
其次，欢迎参加 The Downballot 与 Strength In Numbers 联合举办的选举之夜直播，11 月 3 日美国东部时间下午 6:45 在 Substack 开始。David Nir 和我将与 FiftyPlusOne 的其他 The Downballot 成员一起，在选举结果陆续出炉之际，带来一场内容更丰富、轻松有趣的讨论。点击下方即可添加日历提醒：Apple | Google | Office 365 | Outlook | Outlook.com | Yahoo 或将此链接加入书签，周二晚上再回来。
And second, join us for a joint The Downballot x Strength In Numbers election night livestream on Substack on Nov. 3 at 6:45 PM ET. David Nir and I will be joined by other members of The Downballot at FiftyPlusOne for an extra-informative and fun discussion of the election results as they come in. Just click below to add a reminder to your calendar: Apple | Google | Office 365 | Outlook | Outlook.com | Yahoo Or bookmark this link and come back Tuesday evening.
投票开始前，SIN 还将推出一场轻量级的选举日直播博客，报道现场投票人数、出口民调等内容。周二早上请留意收件箱中的那封邮件。我们快到了！
SIN will also be running a light Election Day live blog for coverage of in-person voting numbers, the exit polls, etc., before ballots start coming in. Look for that email in your inbox Tuesday morning. We’re almost there!
Elliott 昨日我发布了关于得克萨斯州提前投票的最新情况，此前该州公布了提前投票窗口结束（周五）前的最终现场投票人数统计。
Elliott YESTERDAY I POSTED an update on early voting in Texas after the state published its final tallies of in-person turnout through the end of the EV window (Friday).
下图的要点可概括如下，图表显示了2024年早期投票的民主党和共和党选民在休斯顿市（哈里斯县）中（a）2024年早期投票的比例以及（b）本年度已通过早期或邮寄方式投票的比例。每一行展示了根据其以往参与度划分的民主党和共和党早期选民的投票率，例如第一行指的是2020、2022和2024年大选以及2022和2024年初选均有投票的休斯顿选民。
The upshot from that post can essentially be summarized in the chart below, which shows the share of Democratic and Republican voters in Harris County (Houston) who (a) voted early in 2024 and (b) have voted early or by mail this year. Each row shows the turnout rate for prior Democratic and Republican early voters by their level of past engagement, such as (in the first row) Houstonians who voted in the 2020, 2022 and 2024 general elections and the 2022 and 2024 primaries.
在最低参与度的选民群体中，民主党与共和党之间存在更大的“参与差距”。在定期参加选举的休斯顿选民中，民主党（91%投票率）以微弱但仍显著的5个百分点领先于共和党（86%）。但在那些不规则投票的选民中（底行：2022年缺席中间选举但2024年早期投票的选民），共和党（57%）落后于民主党（70%）13个百分点。
There is a larger “engagement gap” between Democrats and Republicans among the lowest-engagement group of voters. Among Houstonians who regularly turn out for elections, Democrats (91% turnout) are out-voting Republicans (86%) by a modest but still sizable 5 points. But among irregular voters (bottom row: those who skipped the 2022 midterm but voted early in 2024), Republicans (57%) have fallen 13 points behind Democrats (70%).
新选民更倾向于民主党。在3月份的初选中投票的选民中，民主党人数超过共和党人数5比1。2022年，两党大致持平。
New voters skew even more Democratic. Among those who voted in the primary this March, Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 5 to 1. In 2022, they were split about evenly.
这些结果与民调非常相似。数月来，共和党在民调中一直表示他们比民主党更不可能投票 — — 各机构约10个百分点。但这一差距主要集中在最不可靠的特朗普选民群体中。
These results look a lot like the polls. For months, Republicans have been telling pollsters they’re less likely to vote this year than Democrats — by about 10 percentage points across firms. But that gap is concentrated among the least reliable Trump voters.
在两项近期民调中 — — 一项由我运营的Wave Polling和Research机构进行，另一项由Strength In Numbers/Verasight机构进行 — — 94%的常规选民在2024年支持卡玛拉·哈里斯，并表示肯定会投票给众议院，而支持特朗普的常规选民则为88%，两者相差6个百分点。
In two recent surveys — one from Wave Polling and Research, the polling firm I run, and the other from our Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll — 94% of regular voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024 said they’d definitely vote for Congress, compared to 88% of regular Trump voters, a modest 6-point gap.
但在不规则选民群体中 — — 即2024年投票但通常不太可能参加中间选举的选民 — — 差距几乎翻倍：81%的不规则哈里斯选民表示肯定会投票，而不规则特朗普选民仅为64%。不规则特朗普选民是2024年所有选民中最不确定会出席投票的群体。
But among irregular voters, the people who turned out in 2024 but are less likely to vote in a typical midterm, the gap nearly triples: 81% of irregular Harris voters say they’ll definitely vote, vs just 64% of irregular Trump voters. Irregular Trump voters are the least sure of any 2024 voters that they’ll turn out.
截至今天11月1日，我们已获得来自北卡罗来纳州的最终提前投票数据，这些数据进一步显示共和党今年落后于对手。如果这些趋势持续下去，民主党甚至可能拥有比2018年更好的投票率环境。
As of today, Nov. 1, we have final early-voting numbers from North Carolina to add to the pile of data showing Republicans lagging this year. If these patterns hold, Democrats may even have a better turnout environment than 2018.
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