本文报道了 2026 年 10 月 Strength In Numbers/Verasight 民调的结果。文末附有方法论说明。您可以在 Strength In Numbers 民调门户网站上找到本次以及以往民调发布的总计数据。
This article reports results from the October 2026 Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. A methodology description is included at the end of this article. You can find toplines for this as well as our previous poll releases at the Strength In Numbers polling portal.
Strength In Numbers 的付费订阅者可查看更多图表和完整的交叉分析档案，并可在下方评论区为未来的民调提出问题建议！
Paying subscribers to Strength In Numbers have access to additional visuals and a full archive of crosstabs, and can suggest questions for future polls in the comments section below!
距离选举日不到两周，我们最新的 Strength In Numbers/Verasight 民调显示，民主党在通用国会选票上的领先优势达到自 2025 年 5 月以来这 17 波调查中的最大值。
Just under two weeks before Election Day, our new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats with their largest lead on the generic congressional ballot in the 17 waves of this survey since May 2025.
在登记选民中，52% 表示将投票给其所在选区的民主党众议院候选人，41% 表示将投票给共和党候选人，按未四舍五入数字计算，领先优势为 10.4 个百分点。这略微超过了我们 2 月创下的 10.1 个百分点的前高。在可能投票者中，民主党以 54% 对 42% 领先，领先优势为 12 个百分点，同样创下该系列调查的新高。共和党在登记选民中获得 41% 的支持率，为该党在我们民调中获得的最低份额。
Among registered voters, 52% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district and 41% for the Republican, a margin of 10.4 points using unrounded figures. That edges past our previous high of 10.1 points in February. Among likely voters, Democrats lead 54% to 42%, a 12-point margin and also a high for the series. The Republican Party’s 41% among registered voters is the lowest share it has received in our poll.
总统本人的支持率大致维持在 9 月的水平，那是根据我们的数据，他第二任期中表现最差的一个月。仅有 34% 的美国人认可他的工作表现，62% 不认可。但他在移民、边境安全和驱逐出境等曾助他 2024 年获胜的议题上的评价均跌至新低。共和党在移民或驱逐出境议题上均不再对民主党持有优势。
The president himself is roughly where he was in September, which was the worst month of his second term in our data. Just 34% of Americans approve of the job he is doing and 62% disapprove. But his ratings on immigration, border security and deportations — the issues that carried him in 2024 — all fell to new lows. Republicans now hold no advantage over Democrats on either immigration or deportations.
下文我将报告我们每月一次的 Strength In Numbers/Verasight 政治追踪调查的完整结果，内容包括美国人希望下一届国会如何应对特朗普的议程、谁收到了竞选团队的联系，以及选民对弹劾的看法。
Below, I report full results from our monthly Strength In Numbers/Verasight political tracking survey, including what Americans want the next Congress to do about Trump’s agenda, who has heard from the campaigns, and what voters think about impeachment.
在即将于《Strength In Numbers》发布的三篇文章中，我将利用我们的新民调……(1)衡量低知识水平和低政治参与度选民投票意向的变化，这类选民促成了唐纳德·特朗普在2024年的胜利，但我们推测他们对成本更为敏感——这是否属实？；(2)估算其他通用选票民调中可能存在的误差，这种误差可能源于民调中的回忆偏差——即曾投票给特朗普或卡玛拉·哈里斯的人现在却说他们没有投过票；以及(3)探讨民调是否捕捉到了“错误类型”的特朗普选民——具体来说，是来自全国较城市化或郊区地区的选民，而未能捕捉到农村地区的“让美国再次伟大”选民。如果您想要……，请务必订阅。
In three forthcoming articles here at Strength In Numbers, I use our new poll to... (1) measure the change in voting intention among low-knowledge and low-political-engagement voters, who were responsible for Donald Trump’s win in 2024 but who we have theorized are more cost-sensitive — is that true?; (2) estimate potential error in other polls of the generic ballot that may be driven by recall bias in the polls — a phenomenon where people who voted for Trump or Kamala Harris now say they don’t; and (3) explore the possibility that polls are picking up the “wrong type” of Trump voter — specifically those from more urban or suburban areas of the country, and not picking up rural MAGA voters. Be sure you are subscribed if you want to .