最新民调显示，在国会选举意向调查中，民主党以7个百分点的优势领先共和党，这一结果进一步印证了距离大选还有三周之际的选情对民主党较为有利。这项由人工智能研究平台TrueDot.ai负责执行、并于周二发布的NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ独家民调显示，在国会选举意向方面，民主党获得了49%的支持率，而共和党则获得42%的支持率；另有8%的受访者尚未做出决定。
Democrats are leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 7 points, according to a new poll — underscoring the Democrat-friendly environment three weeks out from Election Day. An exclusive NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) poll, conducted by AI research platform TrueDot.ai and released on Tuesday, showed Democrats leading Republicans with 49 percent support to the GOP's 42 percent on the generic congressional ballot, with a separate 8 percent of survey respondents undecided.
NewsNation隶属于Nexstar传媒集团，该集团同时也是《The Hill》的母公司。当被问及无论自己打算投票给哪一方，哪个政党更值得自己支持时，46%的受访者选择了民主党，40%的人则支持共和党；约7%的人表示倾向于无党派候选人，8%的人表示以上选项均不符合自己的意愿。本次民调的完整结果将于周二晚间在Chris Cuomo主持的“Decision Desk 2026：畅所欲言——NewsNation市民大会”节目中公布。
NewsNation is owned by Nexstar, which also owns The Hill. When respondents were asked which party has done more to earn their vote, regardless of whom they’re voting for, 46 percent said the Democratic Party while 40 percent said the GOP. Close to 7 percent said independents while 8 percent said none of the above. The full results of the poll will be discussed on "Decision Desk 2026 Have Your Say: A NewsNation Town Hall" hosted by Chris Cuomo on Tuesday night on NewsNation.
前白宫幕僚长拉姆·伊曼纽尔、媒体人兼评论员斯蒂芬·A·史密斯以及前特朗普竞选策略顾问史蒂夫·班农也将在该活动中就民调数据所反映的选情展开讨论。近期的多项民调均显示，民主党在国会选举中保持着稳定且明显的领先优势，众多预测机构与分析人士也预计该党有望在11月重新掌控众议院。Decision Desk HQ预测，民主党重夺众议院控制权的可能性为76%，而共和党保住该席位的概率则为24%。
Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, broadcaster and commentator Stephen A. Smith and former Trump strategist Steve Bannon will discuss what they see in the numbers during the town hall. Recent polling has shown Democrats holding a steady and significant edge on the congressional ballot, with forecasters and analysts expecting the party to take back the House in November. Decision Desk HQ forecasts that Democrats have a 76 percent probability of winning back the House while Republicans have a 24 percent probability of holding the lower chamber.
“目前最关键的问题在于这种领先优势是否会进一步扩大，”DDHQ的首席选举分析师杰弗里·斯凯利说道，“不过现在时间所剩无几，局势也很难再出现大的变化了。”
“The big question is if the lead grows more,” said Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at DDHQ. “You're basically out of time for much to change,” he added.
“此时，这更多地只是关于尽你所能地吸引你所在党派的选民，并向那些可能过去或通常会为你的党派投票的选民提出最后的论点，尤其是如果你是共和党人的话，然后尝试说明他们为何应该再次出现投票。” NewsNation/DDHQ 民意调查显示，特朗普总统的好感度为 38%，而不喜欢度为 60%。通胀（28%）、就业和经济（20%）以及移民和边境（12%）被选民列为美国面临的最紧迫问题之一。
“At this point, it is probably more just about engaging the voters in your party as best you can, and making some final cases to voters who might normally or might have in the past voted for your party, if you're Republicans in particular, and then trying to make the case for why they should show up again.”The NewsNation/DDHQ poll found President Trump with a 38 percent favorability rating, compared with a 60 percent unfavorable rating. Inflation (28 percent), jobs and the economy (20 percent) and immigration and the border (12 percent) ranked among what voters said are the most urgent issues facing the U.S. Skelley said he was “very skeptical” that Trump’s recent deal with Russia to add 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and global marketplace would move voters before November.
斯凯利表示，他对特朗普最近与俄罗斯达成的协议持“非常怀疑”的态度，该协议旨在向美国和全球市场增加 30 万吨柴油供应，他不认为这会在 11 月之前影响选民。该协议也引发了一些两党反对。“美国人……不一定对俄罗斯持有非常积极的看法，因此一些人也可能对这一举动持保留态度，”他补充道。观察人士表示，民主党夺回参议院的机会是五五开，因为他们需要翻转四个席位，而面临着俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州和得克萨斯州等对共和党有利的州的挑战。
The deal has also caused some bipartisan backlash. “Americans don't ... necessarily have a very popular opinion of Russia, and so some may look askance at this move as well,” he added. Observers say Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate, where they need to flip four seats, is a toss-up as they contend with Republican-friendly states such as Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Texas.
Decision Desk HQ 给予民主党翻转参议院的概率为 56%，共和党为 44%。NewsNation/DDHQ 民意调查由 TrueDot.ai 在 10 月 5 日至 10 月 9 日进行，样本为 974 名可能的 2026 年全国选民。全项调查的误差范围为 3.2 个百分点。
Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 56 percent chance of flipping the Senate and Republicans a 44 percent chance. The NewsNation/DDHQ poll was conducted by TrueDot.ai between Oct. 5 and Oct. 9 with 974 likely 2026 national voters. The margin of error for the full survey is 3.2 percentage points.