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彭博社

加拿大枫叶债券因人工智能相关债券发行潮而表现落后Canada’s Maple Bonds Underperform on Wave on AI-Linked Debt Sales

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全球人工智能债券抛售潮正蔓延至加拿大,Alphabet Inc.等科技巨头的一波交易涌入这个小市场,放大了该国对外国信贷波动的敞口。

A global AI-debt selloff is spreading to Canada as a wave of deals by Alphabet Inc. and other tech titans flood the small market, amplifying the country’s exposure to foreign credit swings.

据彭博社汇编的数据显示,枫叶债券(即全球公司以加元发行的债券)今年销售额已飙升至创纪录的520亿加元(约合370亿美元),是2021年创下的前一纪录的两倍多。发行主体以资助人工智能雄心的公司为主,包括亚马逊公司和Alphabet。

Sales of maple bonds, or debt sold by global companies in Canadian dollars, have soared to a record C$52 billion ($37 billion) this year, more than double the previous mark set in 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The issuance has been led by firms funding artificial intelligence ambitions, including Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet.

与加拿大更广泛的投资级债券市场相比,与人工智能相关的债券抛售速度更快,并对其他信用产生连锁反应。彭博社数据显示,亚马逊的30年期加元债券收益率差价约为政府基准上方164个基点,比该债券6月发行时扩大了50多个基点。同期,加拿大主要投资级指数扩大了约10个基点。

The AI-linked bonds are selling off faster than the broader Canadian investment grade market and having ripple effects on other credits. Amazon’s 30-year Canadian dollar bond is indicated at about 164 basis points above government benchmarks, more than 50 basis points wider than when the note was sold in June, according to Bloomberg data. Canada’s main investment-grade index has widened about 10 basis points over the same period.

截至今年11月2日,枫叶债券指数的回报率仅为0.47%,不到更广泛公司债券指数1.2%涨幅的一半。亚马逊和Alphabet现在已成为枫叶指数中权重最高的债券之一。

So far this year, a gauge of maple bonds has returned just 0.47% to Nov. 2, less than half the 1.2% gain in the broader corporate bond index. Amazon and Alphabet are now among the most heavily-weighted bonds in the maple index.

与人工智能相关的债券下跌反映了供应消化不良,因为市场正接近其能够吸收的债务上限,而美国和加拿大的债券销售均处于创纪录水平。此外,股票和高收益数据中心债券的更广泛避险行情也已蔓延至投资级信用。

The declines in AI-linked bonds reflect supply indigestion as the market approaches the limits of how much debt it can absorb, with sales at records in the US and Canada. There has also been a broader risk-off move in equity and high-yield data center bonds that has spilled over into investment-grade credit.

对于枫叶债券而言,这些新交易的巨大规模可能对小市场产生不成比例的影响。亚马逊的140亿加元交易——这是加元计价公司债券有史以来最大的一次发行——让这家首次发行的卖家在一天之内跻身加拿大前十大发行人之列。在今年之前,科技公司在加拿大债券指数中的权重很小。

For maple bonds, the sheer size of these new deals can have a disproportionate impact on the small market. Amazon’s C$14 billion deal — the largest corporate bond sale ever in Canadian dollars — catapulted the first-time seller into a top-10 issuer in Canada in a single day. Tech firms had little weight in Canadian bond indexes prior to this year.

建设数据中心的巨额成本,已将该行业转变为资本密集型业务,并带来巨大的融资需求。这正将更多的人工智能风险推向信贷市场。随着美国投资者大量购买与人工智能相关的债务,借款人正在进军加拿大和欧洲等市场,这些市场的需求依然强劲,因为投资者正在寻求分散投资。

The enormous cost of building data centers has transformed the industry into capital-intensive businesses with massive borrowing needs. That’s pushing more of the AI risks into credit markets. As US investors fill up on AI-related debt, borrowers are venturing further into markets such as Canada and Europe, where demand has remained strong as investors look for diversification.

Alphabet今年第二次发行欧元债券,筹资60亿欧元(67亿美元),提供的收益率明显高于5月份的交易,此前对人工智能支出速度的担忧引发了信贷市场抛售。Oracle Corp.周一出售了100亿美元的债券,而Meta Platforms Inc.正考虑通过潜在的多币种债务发行筹集至少200亿美元。

Alphabet raised €6 billion ($6.7 billion) in its second euro bond sale this year, offering considerably higher yields than in its transaction in May after concerns over the pace of AI spending drove a credit-market selloff. Oracle Corp. sold $10 billion of bonds on Monday, while Meta Platforms Inc. is eyeing at least $20 billion from a potential debt offering in multiple currencies.

自去年加拿大主要信贷指数开始纳入枫叶债券以来,外国借款人一直享有略好的定价和更高的需求。

Foreign borrowers have been seeing slightly better pricing and higher demand ever since the main Canadian credit index began including maple bonds last year.

据Barclays Plc美国信贷策略主管Dominique Toublan表示,大多数反向扬基债券——即以非美元货币发行的美国企业债务——主要由发行人分散投资者基础、利用所有可用融资渠道的需求所驱动。定价优势会随着货币波动和相对需求而时有时无,并非结构性节省,Toublan表示。

Most reverse Yankees — US corporate debt raised in currencies other than the greenback — are driven by issuers’ needs to diversify their investor base and use all financing channels available, according to Dominique Toublan, head of US credit strategy at Barclays Plc. Pricing advantages come and go based on currency moves and relative demand, and isn’t a structural saving, Toublan said.

枫叶债券热潮不仅限于超大规模云服务商。Walmart Inc.上个月出售了50亿加元的债券,这是加拿大历史上第四大投资级债券发行。Goldman Sachs Group Inc.、AT&T Inc.和International Business Machines Corp.今年均筹集了超过20亿加元。U.S. Bancorp本周筹集了10亿加元,时隔二十多年再次进入加元市场。

The maple boom isn’t limited to hyperscalers. Walmart Inc. sold a C$5 billion bond last month, in the fourth-largest investment-grade bond sale in Canadian history. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., AT&T Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. all raised more than C$2 billion this year. U.S. Bancorp raised C$1 billion this week, tapping the loonie market for the first time in more than two decades.

“随着加拿大成为美国投资级公司更稳定的资本提供方,这些大公司会希望确保其投资组合和风险敞口中有一部分来自这个市场,”BMO资本市场首席执行官艾伦·坦嫩鲍姆在一次采访中表示。

“As Canada becomes a more consistent provider of capital for investment-grade companies in the US, these large companies will want to make sure that they’ve got some portion of their portfolio and exposure in this market,” Alan Tannenbaum, chief executive officer of BMO Capital Markets, said in an interview.

根据彭博社汇编的数据,多伦多-道明尼银行是今年枫叶债券销售的头号安排行。该银行的资本市场业务第三季度收入增长率飙升25%,部分得益于更高的承销费。

Toronto-Dominion Bank is the top arranger of maple bond sales this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The bank’s capital markets business saw a 25% jump in revenue growth in the third quarter, helped in part by higher underwriting fees.

彭博社数据显示,枫叶债券今年占加元公司债券销售的约29%,而2025年为10%。这意味着加拿大比以往任何时候都更容易受到全球信贷波动的影响。

Maple bonds accounted for about 29% of Canadian-dollar corporate debt sales this year, up from 10% in 2025, according to Bloomberg data. This means Canada is more exposed to global credit swings than ever before.

“枫叶债券在我们市场日益普遍,增加了加拿大信贷市场对国际局势的敏感度,”九点合伙人有限公司投资组合经理埃蒂安·博尔多表示。

“The increasing prevalence of maples in our market increases the sensitivity of the Canadian credit market to international developments,” said Etienne Bordeleau, a portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners LP.

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