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德联邦银行行长纳格尔加入欧洲央行决策者行列 支持12月加息Bundesbank's Nagel joins ECB chorus backing December rate hike

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2026年4月16日,美国华盛顿特区,德国联邦银行行长约阿希姆·纳格尔在国际货币基金组织/世界银行2026年春季会议间隙向记者发表讲话。路透社/伊丽莎白·弗兰茨German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks to reporters on the sidelines of the the IMF/World Bank 2026 Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 16, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

德国联邦银行行长约阿希姆·纳格尔周二表示,欧洲央行在12月再次加息似乎几成定局,加入了已经很长的支持该举措的决策者名单,这将是该行今年的第三次加息。

Another European Central Bank rate hike in December seems almost inevitable, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday, joining an already long list of policymakers backing the move, which would be the bank's third this year.

欧洲央行上周将关键存款利率维持在2.5%不变,前提是快速通胀并未固化,但来自不同背景、持不同观点的决策者都认为,这次暂停很可能是暂时的。

The ECB left its key deposit rate on hold at 2.5% last week on the premise that rapid inflation is not getting embedded but policymakers from different backgrounds and convictions have argued that the pause was likely temporary.

“从今天的角度来看,12月加息极有可能是必要的,”作为欧洲央行管委会关键声音的纳格尔在柏林的演讲中表示。“除非通胀前景大幅改善,否则似乎别无选择,只能加息。”虽然12月加息尚未完全被市场定价,但金融投资者预计未来一年将加息两到三次,因为他们预期通胀将在未来数年维持在2%目标上方。

"From today's perspective, an interest rate hike in December is very likely necessary," Nagel, a crucial voice on the ECB's Governing Council, said in a speech in Berlin. "There seems to be little alternative to an interest rate hike unless the inflation outlook improves significantly." While a December move is not fully priced in, financial investors see between two and three rate hikes over the coming year, as they expect inflation to hold above the 2% target for years to come.

纳格尔辩称,通胀正接近欧洲央行的“不利”情景,物价压力将高于该行9月预测中概述的水平。

Nagel argued that inflation was approaching the ECB's 'adverse' scenario and price pressures would be higher than outlined in the bank's September projections.

保加利亚央行行长迪米塔尔·拉德夫在当天早些时候的讲话中得出了类似结论。

Bulgarian central bank chief Dimitar Radev, speaking earlier in the day, came to a similar conclusion.

“但自9月以来通胀前景已恶化,这必须反映在我们对适当货币政策立场的评估中,”拉德夫在索非亚的演讲中说。“10月的暂停是为了评估证据而做出的决定,而非货币政策紧缩结束的结论。”欧洲央行预计未来几个月通胀将超过4%,是其目标的两倍多,从明年春天初开始将迅速回落,届时高基数效应将从时间序列中剔除。

"But the inflation outlook has deteriorated since September, and this must be reflected in our assessment of the appropriate monetary policy stance," Radev said in a speech in Sofia. "The October pause was a decision to assess the evidence, not a conclusion that monetary policy tightening is over." The ECB sees inflation above 4% in the coming months, more than twice its target, falling back rapidly from early spring, when high year-earlier figures get knocked out of the time series.

虽然欧洲央行距离实现其物价稳定使命“还有相当大距离”,但纳格尔也承认,通胀飙升主要源于能源,这超出了欧洲央行的控制范围,且几乎没有证据表明这种上涨引发了二轮效应。

While the ECB was 'quite far' from achieving its price stability mandate, Nagel also acknowledged that the inflation surge was primarily due to energy, over which the ECB has no control, and there was little evidence this increase was setting off second-round effects.

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