美国债务上限可能成为2027年华盛顿的一个重大问题，可能引发唐纳德·特朗普政府与民主党之间的政治对峙。在接受Hm独家采访时，税务基金会联邦政策高级总监安德鲁·劳茨表示，美国很可能在2027年某个时候触及债务上限。这位税务专家认为，如果届时民主党控制国会，他们可能利用提高债务上限的谈判，推动改变共和党政策。
The US debt limit could become a major issue in Washington in 2027, potentially setting up a political standoff between the Donald Trump administration and Democrats. In an exclusive interview with Hm, Andrew Lautz, Senior Director of Federal Policy at the Tax Foundation, said the US is likely to reach its debt limit sometime in 2027. If Democrats control Congress at that point, they could use negotiations over raising the limit to push for changes to Republican policies, the tax expert opined.
劳茨说，美国很可能在2027年某个时候触及债务上限。届时国会将不得不同意提高或暂停上限，以允许政府继续借贷。
Lautz said the US is likely to reach its debt limit sometime in 2027. Congress will then have to agree to raise or suspend the limit to allow the government to continue borrowing.
什么是美国债务上限？债务上限是美国政府借款总额的法定上限。当政府需要借款超过这一上限时，国会必须采取行动提高或暂停上限。过去几十年来，国会已数十次提高或暂停债务上限。这使政府能够借入更多资金以履行其财务义务。
What is the US debt limit? The debt limit is the legal cap on how much money the US government can borrow. When the government needs to borrow beyond this limit, Congress must take action to raise or suspend ingress has increased or suspended the debt limit dozens of times over the past few decades. This has allowed the government to borrow more money to meet its financial obligations.
克莱尔·瓦尔德兹致克里斯·拉布：民主社会主义者很可能即将进入国会然而，如果在触及上限时国会未能达成协议，美国可能面临债务违约的风险。
Claire Valdez to Chris Rabb: Democratic Socialists likely on their way to CongressHowever, if Congress fails to reach an agreement when the limit is reached, the US could face the risk of defaulting on its debt.
劳茨警告说，不提高债务上限可能给美国经济和金融体系带来严重后果。他说，不达成协议的替代后果可能是美国债务违约。这种事件将是前所未有的，并可能造成重大损害。
Lautz warned that failing to raise the debt limit could have serious consequences for the US economy and financial system. He said the alternative to reaching an agreement could be a default on US debt. Such an event would be unprecedented and could cause major damage.
劳茨形容可能的影响是给美国带来“灾难性的金融和经济后果”。这使得债务上限不仅仅是另一场政治分歧。国会将不得不达成协议以避免违约风险。民主党可能利用债务上限向特朗普施压国会的政治局势可能使债务上限辩论更加困难。
Lautz described the possible impact as bringing “catastrophic financial and economic consequences” for the US. This makes the debt limit more than just another political disagreement. Congress would have to reach an agreement to avoid the risk of a default. Democrats could use the debt limit to put pressure on TrumpThe political situation in Congress could make the debt limit debate more difficult.
劳茨表示，如果民主党在2027年债务上限到期时控制国会，他们可能会利用这一问题作为契机，向特朗普政府寻求政策变更。在这种情况下，民主党可能仅在政府同意满足其部分要求时，才同意支持提高债务上限。这可能导致民主党与特朗普政府再次陷入僵局，随后围绕政府支出和其他政策展开谈判。医疗补助和食品援助削减可能成为谈判的一部分民主党可能提出的一个要求，是撤销共和党去年在《一项宏伟美好法案》中对医疗补助和食品援助项目实施的部分削减。
Lautz said that if Democrats control Congress when the debt limit comes due in 2027, they could use the issue as an opportunity to seek policy changes from the Trump administration. In that situation, Democrats may agree to support an increase in the debt limit only if the administration agrees to some of their demands. This could lead to a fresh standoff between Democrats and the Trump administration, followed by negotiations over government spending and other policies. Medicaid and food assistance cuts could become part of the negotiationsOne possible demand from Democrats could be to reverse some of the cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs made by Republicans in the One Big Beautiful Bill last year.
医疗补助为符合条件的人群提供医疗保障，而食品援助项目帮助人们承担食品费用。劳茨表示，民主党可能要求特朗普政府取消其中一些削减，以换取支持提高债务上限。这可能会将共和党支持的法律下做出的支出决定，在2027年重新拉回政治辩论的焦点。民主党还可能寻求恢复扩大的健康保险税收抵免另一个可能的要求，可能涉及帮助人们负担健康保险费用的扩大保费税收抵免。
Medicaid provides health coverage to eligible people, while food assistance programs help people with the cost of food. Lautz said Democrats could ask the Trump administration to cancel some of these cuts in exchange for supporting an increase in the debt limit. This could bring the spending decisions made under the Republican-backed law back into the political debate in 2027. Democrats may also seek the return of expanded health insurance tax creditsAnother possible demand could involve the expanded premium tax credits that help people afford health insurance.
在民主党早先的扩大政策未获延续后，更慷慨的税收抵免已于2025年底到期。民主党希望恢复这些扩大的福利。劳茨表示，民主党可能将恢复这些福利作为债务上限谈判的一部分。这意味着2027年的债务上限辩论，也可能将健康保险成本和政府对家庭的支持推向聚光灯下。如果民主党控制国会，可能拥有更多谈判筹码劳茨表示，如果在债务上限问题出现时民主党控制国会，他们可能有机会推动这些变革。特朗普政府和民主党将需要共同努力以达成协议。
The more generous tax credits expired at the end of 2025 after Democrats' earlier expansion was not extended. Democrats want to bring back those expanded benefits. Lautz said Democrats could seek their restoration as part of negotiations over the debt limit. This means the 2027 debt limit debate could also bring health insurance costs and government support for households into focus. Democrats could have more negotiating power if they control CongressLautz said Democrats could have an opportunity to push for these changes if they control Congress when the debt limit issue comes up. The Trump administration and Democrats would need to work together to reach an agreement.
这可能为民主党提供空间，以寻求修改其反对的政策。然而，劳茨并未表示民主党肯定会提出这些要求，也未表示政府会同意这些要求。他将这些描述为可能的谈判领域。劳茨称债务上限为“沉睡议题”劳茨将债务上限描述为一个“沉睡议题”，因为它目前未受到太多关注，但明年可能变得重要。他说，“没有多少人在关注”它，尽管它可能对2027年的政治辩论产生重大影响。
This could give Democrats room to seek changes to policies they oppose. However, Lautz did not say that Democrats would definitely make these demands or that the administration would agree to them. He described them as possible areas of negotiation. Lautz calls the debt limit a “sleeper issue”Lautz described the debt limit as a “sleeper issue” because it is not receiving much attention but could become important next year. He said “not many people are paying attention” to it, even though it could have a major impact on the political debate in 2027.
他还指出，债务上限是一个预算问题，而非直接的税收政策问题。然而，它与税收政策相关联，因为谈判可能涉及政府支出、健康保险税收抵免及其他财务决策。美国债务与赤字上升增加压力随着美国面临日益严重的债务和赤字问题，2027年可能出现的对峙随之而来。
He also pointed out that the debt limit is a budget issue rather than a direct tax-policy issue. However, it is linked to tax policy because negotiations could involve government spending, health insurance tax credits and other financial decisions. Rising US debt and deficits add to the pressureThe possible 2027 standoff comes as the US faces a growing debt and deficit problem.
劳茨表示，公众持有的美国公共债务已超过32万亿美元，现已超过该国国内生产总值（GDP）的100%。
Lautz said US public debt held by the public has crossed $32 trillion and is now more than 100% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).The US budget deficit was around $2 trillion last year and is projected to remain close to that level for the foreseeable future.
美国预算赤字去年约为2万亿美元，预计在可预见的未来将维持在接近这一水平。预算赤字是指政府支出超过其收取的收入。政府通过借款来填补这一缺口。
A budget deficit occurs when the government spends more money than it collects in revenue. The government borrows money to cover the gap.
劳茨称，该国的预算形势正变得日益不可持续。不过，他补充说，很难知道何时会达到临界点，也不知是会缓慢还是突然发生。债务与支出决策将继续是华盛顿的挑战劳茨表示，经济增长有助于改善政府的财政状况，但仅靠经济增长无法解决债务和赤字问题。
Lautz said the country's budget situation is becoming increasingly unsustainable. However, he added that it is difficult to know when the situation could reach a breaking point or whether that would happen slowly or suddenly. Debt and spending decisions will remain a challenge for WashingtonLautz said economic growth could help improve the government's financial position, but it would not solve the debt and deficit problem on its own.
他指出，社会保障和医疗保险等主要支出项目，以及税收扣除、抵免和免税额，都是国会可以审查的领域。他还讨论了延长《一项宏伟美好法案》引入的税收优惠的成本，包括小费、加班收入、老年人以及汽车贷款利息的扣除。这些条款将于2028年12月31日到期。延长这些条款在10年内可能耗资数千亿美元。国会将不得不决定是增加国家债务，还是通过增税或在其他地方削减开支来为延长提供资金。
He pointed to major spending programs such as Social Security and Medicare, along with tax deductions, credits and exemptions, as areas Congress could review. He also discussed the cost of extending tax benefits introduced under the One Big Beautiful Bill, including deductions for tips, overtime income, senior citizens and auto loan interest. These provisions are due to expire on December 31, 2028. Extending them could cost hundreds of billions of dollars over 10 years. Congress would have to decide whether to add to the national debt or pay for the extensions through higher taxes or spending cuts elsewhere.
这些更广泛的预算压力可能会增加2027年债务上限到期时达成协议的难度。债务上限为何对2027年的政治辩论至关重要债务上限可能将几项分歧汇聚在一起：政府借贷、削减开支、医疗保险支持以及税收优惠的未来。如果民主党控制国会，他们可能会试图利用提高债务上限的必要性，迫使特朗普政府扭转一些共和党政策。
These wider budget pressures could add to the difficulty of reaching an agreement when the debt limit comes up in 2027. Why the debt limit matters for the 2027 political debateThe debt limit could bring several disagreements together: government borrowing, spending cuts, health insurance support and the future of tax benefits. If Democrats control Congress, they may try to use the need to raise the debt limit to push the Trump administration to reverse some Republican policies.
如果双方未能达成一致，美国可能面临债务违约的风险。劳茨的警告是，这一问题目前可能没有受到太多关注，但它可能成为2027年华盛顿面临的主要政治和经济挑战之一。
If the two sides fail to agree, the US could face the risk of a debt default. Lautz's warning is that the issue may not be getting much attention now, but it could become one of the major political and economic challenges facing Washington in 2027.