新西兰主要银行的经济学家预计，新西兰失业率将在9月季度维持在5.6%或接近这一水平，与6月季度创下的11年高位持平。新西兰统计局即将发布的这一数据将对央行下一次政策审议产生重大影响。
Major bank economists expect New Zealand's unemployment rate to hold at or near 5.6% for the September quarter, matching the 11-year high reached in June. The reading, due from Statistics New Zealand, will weigh heavily on the central bank's next policy review.
新西兰主要银行的经济学家预计，官方数据将显示截至9月的三个月失业率维持在5.6%或接近这一水平，与6月季度创下的11年高位持平。新西兰统计局的家庭劳动力调查将在未来几天发布，这将是自冬季以来劳动力市场表现如何的首个重大测试。
Economists at New Zealand's major banks expect official data to show the unemployment rate held at or close to 5.6% for the three months to September, matching the 11-year high set in the June quarter. The Household Labour Force Survey from Statistics New Zealand is due in the coming days and will be the first major test of how the labour market has held up since winter.
失业率停滞在疫情后高位，反映出更广泛的放缓：雇主冻结招聘，一些行业裁减员工，而整体产出增长保持温和。经济学家指出，疲软的消费支出、低迷的房地产市场和谨慎的企业投资，是尽管新西兰储备银行此前已降息，但企业仍不愿增加员工的因素。
A stalled jobless rate at post-pandemic highs reflects a broader slowdown that has seen employers freeze hiring and some sectors shed staff even as overall output growth stays modest. Economists have pointed to weak consumer spending, a soft housing market and cautious business investment as factors keeping firms from adding workers despite earlier interest-rate relief from the Reserve Bank.
这一数据对新西兰储备银行至关重要，后者一直依赖劳动力市场的闲置来为其近期的政策立场提供理由。如果失业率维持在近11年高位附近，将强化市场预期，即央行有空间维持宽松的货币条件；而如果数据出现意外的上升或下降，可能会改变市场对其下一次现金利率审议时机的押注。
The reading matters for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which has leaned on labour market slack to justify its recent policy settings. A rate stuck near an 11-year high would reinforce expectations that the central bank has room to keep monetary conditions supportive, while a surprise move either way could shift bets on the timing of its next cash rate review.