沙特阿美（SAUDI ARAMCO）作为全球最大石油公司，今年表现出了惊人的韧性。自与伊朗爆发战争以来，其设施遭受袭击，且其大部分原油出口所经由的霍尔木兹海峡也遭到扰乱。然而，其现金奶牛依然源源不断。11月3日，该公司报告称，7月至9月季度的调整后净利润为310亿美元，较上年同期增长9%（见图表）。
SAUDI ARAMCO, the world’s biggest oil company, has proved remarkably resilient this year. Since war broke out with Iran it has faced attacks on its facilities and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of its barrels were shipped. Yet its cash gushers continue to flow. On November 3rd it reported an adjusted net profit for the quarter from July to September of $31bn, up by 9% from the previous year (see chart).
阿美此前也曾遭受袭击。2022年3月，胡塞武装袭击了吉达的储油设施；一年前，利雅得的一座炼油厂也曾遭袭。2019年，他们袭击了输送阿美石油至红海的东西向管道，以及其两座加工设施。本次冲突带来的动荡要大得多。但尽管产量较战前水平有所下降，油价却上涨了，且公司一直在寻找将石油推向市场的新途径。
Aramco has been under fire before. In March 2022 Houthi rebels struck storage facilities in Jeddah, a year after an attack on a refinery in Riyadh. In 2019 they attacked the East-West pipeline, which carries Aramco’s oil to the Red Sea, along with two of its processing facilities. This conflict has brought far more upheaval. But although production is down from pre-war levels, prices are up, and the company has been finding new ways to get its oil to market.
冲突于2月爆发后不久，阿美便开始通过红海而非波斯湾输送更多石油。7月胡塞武装封锁曼德海峡南部通道后，阿美将船只改道北上，更多地利用苏伊士-地中海管道。近期东西向管道遭袭减少了抵达红海的石油量，因此沙特阿拉伯开始派遣油轮经霍尔木兹海峡驶往阿曼湾，在那里将石油转运给不愿自行航行的客户船只。
Soon after the conflict started in February it began to transport more of its oil via the Red Sea, rather than the Persian Gulf. When the Houthis in July blockaded the southern passage through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, it redirected its vessels north, to make greater use of the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline. Recent attacks on the East-West pipeline cut the volume of oil reaching the Red Sea, so Saudi Arabia has been sending tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, where they transfer oil to the vessels of customers unwilling to make the journey themselves.
上个月，阿美向市场推送的石油日量约为700万桶，高于7月的450万桶，大致持平于战争爆发前2月的水平。位于荷兰、韩国等地的海外储油设施也发挥了作用。
Last month Aramco pushed around 7m barrels of oil a day to the market, up from 4.5m in July and roughly equal to the figure in February, before the war. Overseas storage facilities in places such as the Netherlands and South Korea have also proved useful.
阿美石油公司（Aramco）得以应对冲击，得益于其丰厚的利润空间。去年其上游成本为每桶11.50美元（含运营与资本支出），仅占其最近一个季度每桶95美元售价的一小部分。截至目前，修复受损设施的成本尚属温和，2026年前九个月的资本支出较上年同期下降4%。
Aramco’s ability to weather the conflict is helped by fat margins. Its upstream costs, at $11.50 a barrel last year, including operating and capital expenditures, are a small fraction of the $95 a barrel fetched in its most recent quarter. The cost of restoring damaged facilities has so far been modest, with capital expenditure in the first nine months of 2026 down by 4% from the year before.
但运输成本正在攀升。据政府间组织国际能源署（IEA）称，由于效率低下减少了油轮可用性，从波斯湾运往亚洲的石油运费已增至战前的五倍多。部分油轮在阿曼湾进行船对船转运时被困数日。从苏伊士-地中海输油管道（SUMED）另一端提货的油轮，随后必须绕行好望角全程航行，才能将原油运往亚洲客户。阿美石油不得不承担部分损失。目前，其销往亚洲的轻质原油较迪拜基准价折价约每桶5美元，较上月的每桶2美元折价幅度扩大。
But transportation is getting more expensive. According to the International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental body, the cost of shipping oil from the Persian Gulf to Asia is more than five times what it was before the war, as inefficiencies have reduced the availability of tankers. Some are stuck for days performing ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Those collecting barrels from the other end of the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline must then travel all the way around the Cape of Good Hope to supply customers in Asia. Aramco has had to bear some of the pain. It currently discounts the light crude it sells in Asia by about $5 a barrel, compared with the Dubai benchmark, up from $2 a barrel last month.
除了扩建东西向管道，沙特阿美还打算开发新的出口路线——这可能是一项成本高昂的举措，且会面临多变的地区政治局势。正在考虑的一个选项是修建一条从沙特阿拉伯东部油田通往阿曼海岸杜克姆的管道。咨询公司Rystad Energy估计，该管道全长约1000公里，成本高达70亿美元，相当于该公司年度资本支出预算的14%。
In addition to expanding the East-West pipeline, Aramco intends to develop new export routes—which could become a costly endeavour and run up against volatile regional politics. One option under consideration is a pipeline from the oilfields in Saudi Arabia’s east to Duqm on the coast of Oman. Rystad Energy, a consultancy, estimates that it would stretch for around 1,000km and cost up to $7bn, equivalent to 14% of the company’s annual capex budget.
另一个备选方案是修复伊拉克-沙特管道，全长约1500公里，连接伊拉克巴士拉与沙特红海港口延布。（现有管道在1990年第一次海湾战争期间被关闭，此后数十年处于失修状态。）沙特阿美首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔认为，管道投资将迅速收回成本。如果油价保持高位，且海湾地区其他出口路线依然不可靠，这一论断很可能成立。
An alternative is to restore the Iraq-Saudi pipeline that runs to about 1,500km, connecting Basra in Iraq to Yanbu, the Saudi port on the Red Sea. (The current pipeline was shut off during the first Gulf war in 1990, and has fallen into disrepair in the decades since.) Amin Nasser, Aramco’s chief executive, has argued that investments in pipelines would quickly pay for themselves. That may well be true if oil prices stay high and the Gulf’s other export routes remain unreliable.
他在业绩电话会上指出，全球石油库存处于低位，并暗示在与伊朗的冲突解决后，补充储油设施的需求可能导致未来两年需求维持高位。因此，对沙特阿美而言，利润可能持续流入。■
During the earnings call he noted that global oil inventories are running low, and suggested that the need to refill storage facilities could lead to elevated demand for two years following any resolution to the conflict with Iran. For Aramco, then, the profits may keep flowing. ■