据Bloomberg Economics（彭博经济学）称，欧洲央行官员的表态表明，他们预计欧元区通胀将在一年后大幅低于2%。
Central Bank officials’ remarks suggest they assume euro-area inflation will drop “materially below” 2% in a year’s time, according to Bloomberg Economics.
这一结论由经济学家安德烈·索科尔得出，他利用人工智能分析政策制定者演讲和访谈中生成的标题，并将研究结果与一种非线性预测工具相结合。
That conclusion was reached by economist Andrej Sokol, who used artificial intelligence to analyze headlines generated by policymakers’ speeches and interviews, and combined findings with a non-linear forecasting tool.
结果表明，伊朗战争的影响将是暂时的，且通胀将弱于欧洲央行最新预测所显示的水平。
The results suggest the impact of the Iran war will be temporary, and that inflation will be weaker than the ECB’s latest projections show.
政策制定者上周得出结论，通胀前景的风险偏向上行，该前景预计今年物价压力平均为3%，2027年为2.5%。尽管欧洲央行维持利率不变，但官员们准备在12月第三次加息。
Policymakers concluded last week that risks to the inflation outlook, which sees price pressures averaging 3% this year and 2.5% in 2027, are to the upside. While the ECB kept interest rates unchanged, officials are prepared to hike for a third time in December.
索科尔写道：“在欧洲央行大量的沟通中，埋藏着政策制定者如何看待通胀风险演变的信号。”“我们的新AI模型有助于将它们浮出水面。”根据他的分析，政策制定者的表态仍然指向第四季度通胀将接近4%。
“Buried in the deluge of ECB communications are signals about how policymakers see inflation risks evolving,” Sokol wrote. “Our new AI model helps bring them to the surface.”Based on his analysis, policymakers’ remarks still point to inflation approaching 4% in the fourth quarter.
对于2027年，他们的表态暗示通胀将在年中回落至2.4%，随后进一步走弱至1.7%。这与彭博经济学的预测一致，后者预计通胀将在下半年放缓至2%以下。
For 2027, they hint at a retreat to 2.4% by the middle of the year, before then weakening to 1.7%. That chimes with the forecast of Bloomberg Economics, which foresees inflation slowing below 2% in the second half.