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我们何时才能知道中期选举的结果?When Will We Know the Results of the Midterm Elections?

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选举日正在进行,数千万选民正涌向全美各地的投票站。但可能需要数天,甚至数周,才能明确哪个党派将在唐纳德·特朗普总统第二任期剩余时间里控制国会两院中的每一院。

Election Day is underway, with tens of millions of voters heading to the polls around the U.S. But it could be days, or even weeks, before it becomes clear which party will control each chamber of Congress for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s second term.

部分竞选结果可能在周二晚间揭晓,而在其他胶着的竞选中,可能需要数天——甚至更久——才能决出胜负。一切归根结底取决于各州,美国宪法授权各州确定举行选举和计票的时间、地点和方式。

Some races are likely to be called on Tuesday night, while in other, tighter contests it could take multiple days—if not longer—to determine a winner. It all boils down to the states, which the U.S. Constitution empowers to establish the times, places, and manners of holding elections and counting ballots.

某些州以计票时间较短著称,如佛罗里达州。其他州通常耗时较长,如加利福尼亚州,因其规模庞大;以及阿拉斯加州,由于采用排序选择投票制,使得认证选票的过程更为复杂。

Certain states are known for having shorter count times, such as Florida. Others typically take longer, like California, due to its size, and Alaska, where ranked-choice voting can make the process of certifying votes more complicated.

奥本大学政治学教授、著作《我们如何投票:美国选举的创新》作者米切尔·布朗对《时代》周刊表示:“存在这么多差异,无论是在流程和截止日期、地理条件、选民构成,还是候选人情况上,都会影响呈现出的局面。”

“There are all these differences, both in process and deadlines, and geography, and who the voters are, and who the candidates are, that make a difference in what this looks like,” Mitchell Brown, a professor of political science at Auburn University and the author of “How We Vote: Innovations in American Elections,” tells TIME.

米切尔表示,所有州认证其结果可能需要长达30天。她强调,各州自行发布的官方中期选举结果,不同于媒体机构的预测,后者会更早宣布竞选结果。

Mitchell says that it could take up to 30 days before all the states certify their results. She stresses that official midterm results released by the states themselves are different from projections from media outlets, which will call races sooner.

“重要的是让每个人明白,选举之夜我们在看电视或上网时看到的竞选结果宣布,那些是媒体机构的预测。它们不是官方结果,”选举创新与研究中心研究主任克里斯·曼补充道。“在势均力敌的选举中,我们可能要等到官方认证每一张选票都已计清,才能知道谁是赢家。”以下是关于中期选票将如何统计、以及我们何时可能知晓结果的相关信息。各州投票何时结束?

“It's really important for everyone to understand that what happens on election night when we're watching TV or looking online, and we're seeing races called, those are predictions by media outlets. They're not the official results,” adds Chris Mann, the research director at The Center for Election Innovation & Research. “With close elections, we may end up not knowing who the winner is until we get to those official certifications that every vote has been counted.”Here’s what to know about how the midterm votes will be tabulated, and when we are likely to know the results. When do the polls close?

全美各州的投票开始和结束时间各不相同,大多数州在当地时间晚上 7 点或 8 点左右结束投票。不过,由于美国横跨多个时区,这些结束时间在选举日会分散在数小时内。在某些情况下,甚至同一州的不同地区结束时间也不尽相同。

Polls open and close at varying times in different states around the country, with most closing their polls around 7 p.m. or 8 p.m. local time. Because the U.S. is divided across several time zones, however, those closures are spread over several hours on Election Day. And in some cases closing times vary even between different parts of the same state.

以下是全美 50 个州和华盛顿特区最晚投票结束的时间(以美国东部标准时间为准)。

Here is when the latest polls close in each of the 50 states and Washington, D.C., in Eastern Standard Time.

美国东部时间晚上 7 点:佐治亚州、印第安纳州、肯塔基州、南卡罗来纳州、佛蒙特州和弗吉尼亚州。

7 p.m. EST: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia.

美国东部时间晚上 7 点 30 分:俄亥俄州和西弗吉尼亚州。

7:30 p.m. EST: Ohio and West Virginia.

北卡罗来纳州通常也在此时间结束最后的投票,但由于周二部分地区报告出现轻微技术问题——这些问题现已解决——该州选举委员会已延长部分选区的投票时间。

美国东部时间晚上 8 点:亚拉巴马州、康涅狄格州、特拉华州、佛罗里达州、伊利诺伊州、缅因州、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、密西西比州、密苏里州、新罕布什尔州、新泽西州、俄克拉荷马州、罗得岛州、田纳西州和华盛顿特区。

North Carolina also typically closes its final polls at this time, but due to minor technical issues reported in some localities on Tuesday—which have since been resolved—the state’s board of elections has extended voting hours in some precincts.

在宾夕法尼亚州,大多数投票站将于晚上 8 点关闭,但切斯特县官员表示,因“机器设置问题”导致当天上午开票延误,有三个选区将额外开放半小时。美国东部时间晚上 8 点 30 分:阿肯色州。

8 p.m. EST: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Washington, D.C.

美国东部时间晚上 9 点:亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、路易斯安那州、密歇根州、明尼苏达州、内布拉斯加州、新墨西哥州、纽约州、北达科他州、南达科他州、得克萨斯州、威斯康星州和怀俄明州。美国东部时间晚上 10 点:蒙大拿州、内华达州和犹他州。

In Pennsylvania, most polling sites will close at 8 p.m., but in three precincts they will stay open for an additional half hour “due to machine set-up issues” that delayed the opening of those polls this morning, according to Chester County officials. 8:30 p.m. EST: Arkansas. 9 p.m. EST: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

美国东部时间晚上 11 点:加利福尼亚州、爱达荷州、俄勒冈州和华盛顿州。美国东部时间午夜:夏威夷州。美国东部时间凌晨 1 点:阿拉斯加州。选票如何计数?

10 p.m. EST: Montana, Nevada, and Utah. 11 p.m. EST: California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington state. Midnight EST: Hawaii. 1 a.m.

各州在各自投票结束后,必须核实并统计通过各种方式投出的选票,包括提前投票期间和选举日当天的现场投票、邮寄选票以及临时选票。

EST: Alaska How are ballots counted? After their respective polls close, states must verify and count ballots that were cast in various ways, including those made in person during the early voting period and on Election Day, mail-in ballots, and provisional ballots.

视州而定,选票要么直接在投票地点计数,要么被运回县级计票中心。曼恩表示,这些中心就像仓库,里面装有能够快速准确计票的机器。

Depending on the state, ballots are either counted right at voting locations, or transported back to county counting facilities. Mann says these facilities are like warehouses containing machines that can quickly and accurately count votes.

临时选票允许暂时不符合特定资格要求、但日后可核实身份的人投票。例如,若有人到达投票站却未携带身份证件,可能被允许投临时选票,待其身份核实后再予以计数。

Provisional ballots allow people to vote who fail to meet certain eligibility requirements that can later be verified. If, for example, someone arrives at a polling site and does not have their ID, they may be able to vote through a provisional ballot that can then be counted if and when they have verified their identity.

布朗表示,确认临时选票的过程称为“修正”,这会给计票过程增加额外时间。

Brown says the process of confirming provisional ballots is called “curing” and can add additional time to the tallying process.

十四个州和华盛顿特区还允许在选举日当天或之前加盖邮戳的选票,只要在规定的选后时限内送达即予计数,这也可能导致最终票数统计出现延迟。为什么有些州出结果比其他州慢?

Fourteen states and Washington D.C. also allow ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received during a set post-election window, which can also add delays to final vote counts. Why does it take longer to get results from some states than others?

某些州的选举结果正式汇总——甚至连媒体预测——所需时间,会比其他州长得多。

It will take significantly longer for the results of the election to be officially tabulated—or even projected by media outlets—in some states than in others.

就媒体宣布胜选而言,若竞争胶着、直到几乎所有选票计清才分出胜负,预测结果可能需要更长时间。

When it comes to the media calling races, projections may take longer to come in cases when races are tight, and the winner does not become clear until nearly all the votes are counted.

“如果胜出优势很大,他们可以更早做出预测,”两党政策中心(Bipartisan Policy Center,一个政策智库)选举项目负责人Wren Orey告诉《时代周刊》(TIME)。“每当胜出优势非常微弱时,意味着选举官员需要处理并报告更多结果,媒体机构才能有信心预测胜者。”

“If there is a high margin of victory, they can make that projection sooner,” Wren Orey, who runs the Elections Project at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a policy think tank, tells TIME. “Whenever there's a very narrow margin of victory, that means that election officials need to process and report more results before a media outlet can be confident projecting a winner.”

就各州实际计票过程而言,速度差异也可能归结为物理因素,例如选票在被计数前必须运输的距离。例如在阿拉斯加等州,辽阔偏远的领土导致计票延迟。“有时选票会被空运回安克雷奇进行处理,”Orey说。他们补充道,一些州可能也仅仅拥有更多计票基础设施,包括更多机器、员工和计票地点。

In terms of the actual process of states counting votes, meanwhile, differences in speed can boil down to physical factors, such as the distance ballots must be transported before being counted. In states such as Alaska, for instance, vast and rural territories create delays for counting ballots. “There are sometimes ballots being flown back to Anchorage in order to be processed,” says Orey. They add that some states may also simply have more infrastructure to count ballots, including more machines, employees, and counting locations.

管理投票方式和计票方式的州法律也可能影响选举结果出炉的时间线。例如阿拉斯加和缅因州采用排序选择制(ranked-choice voting),即选民对心仪候选人进行排序,而不是为某个职位只选一个人。Mann将这种方法描述为在胶着竞争中“更复杂的过程”,因为如果首轮甚至后续几轮计票中没有任何候选人获得绝对多数,选票可能需要重新计数。

State laws governing how votes are cast and counted can also play a role in the timeline of election results. Alaska and Maine, for example, use ranked-choice voting, a process in which voters rank their top candidates instead of choosing one person for a position. Mann describes this method as a “more complicated process” in tight races, where ballots may need to be recounted due to one candidate not receiving an outright majority in the first or even subsequent rounds of counting.

“如果首轮计票没有任何候选人获得多数票,那么他们就会淘汰得票最少的候选人,然后再进行一轮计票,”Mann解释道。

“If no candidate has a majority on that first count, then they drop the candidate with the lowest number of votes, and they go through it again,” Mann explains.

其他州,如威斯康星州和宾夕法尼亚州,则禁止在选举日之前为邮寄选票做扫描准备。

Other states, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, prohibit preparing mailed ballots for scanning until Election Day.

“这是好几个直到选举日早晨才开始这一过程的州之一,而它们将有数十万张选票,”需要在同时运行投票站的情况下准备计票,Mann说。

“Those are two of several states that don't start this process until the morning of Election Day, and they will have hundreds of thousands of ballots,” to prepare to be counted while running the polls at the same time, Mann says.

选举舞弊极为罕见。米切尔表示,确认选举结果需要数天甚至数周的过程完全正常,并不表明存在选举舞弊,研究和州审计始终表明选举舞弊极为罕见。

Fraud is extremely rare The process of confirming election results taking days or weeks, Mitchell says, is completely standard, and is not an indication of election fraud, which research and state audits have consistently shown to be extraordinarily rare.

“我要强调的是,选举当天、选举后一天,甚至一周后还不知道官方结果,并不是舞弊的证据,”米切尔说。“这么说是对事实的误解和对人们的操纵。”

“The thing that I would hammer home is not knowing an official result the day of the election, the day after the election, even a week after the election, is not evidence of fraud,” says Mitchell. “And to say so is to misconstrue and manipulate people.”

“[舞弊]极为罕见……选举比以往任何时候都更安全、更准确,”曼补充说。“选举官员以及在投票站工作的朋友和邻居们都在非常努力地工作。他们非常致力于确保选举安全、可靠、准确。”

“[Fraud] is extremely rare … Elections are more secure, more accurate than they have ever been,” adds Mann. “Election officials and your friends and neighbors who are out working the polls are working incredibly hard. They are very dedicated to make sure the election is safe, secure, accurate.”

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