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内塔尼亚胡面临联盟对决,对手角逐组建以色列下一届政府Netanyahu faces coalition showdown as rivals maneuver to form Israel's next government

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特拉维夫,以色列:以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的权力地位将于周三接受考验,届时总统以撒克·赫尔佐格将开始与当选第26届议会的所有党派领袖进行磋商,然后再决定委任哪位议员组建下一届政府。

TEL AVIV, Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power in Israel will be tested Wednesday as President Isaac Herzog begins consultations with leaders of all parties elected to the 26th Knesset before deciding which lawmaker to task with forming the next government.

以色列中央选举委员会上周五公布的最终计票结果显示,内塔尼亚胡的阵营在120个议席的议会中获得53席,而由加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派联盟获得48席,组建政府需要61个议席。

The final vote count, published last Friday by Israel's Central Elections Committee, gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 48 for the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot — 61 seats are needed to form a government.

周一,内塔尼亚胡在X上发帖称:“以色列公众不想要一个依赖拉姆党和共同名单的政府——这些政党支持恐怖主义,否认犹太国家的存在。”“犹太公众中的绝大多数选择利库德党作为最大政党,并选择我作为总理来领导下一届政府。我们希望与我们的伙伴以及任何愿意这样做且不支持恐怖主义的政党组建一个广泛的政府。我愿意就此事进行讨论,”他补充道。

On Monday, Netanyahu posted to X that "the public in Israel does not want a government that depends on Ra'am and the Joint List—parties that support terrorism and reject the existence of the Jewish state." "A clear majority in the Jewish public chose the Likud as the largest party and me, as prime minister, to lead the next government. We aspire to form a broad government with our partners and with any party that wishes to do so and does not support terrorism. I am open to holding discussions on the matter," he added.

他批评的两个主要阿拉伯政党是共同名单和拉姆党,这两个政党共同赢得了历史性的19个议席,可能在政府组建过程中成为关键人物。

The two predominantly Arab parties he pointed his criticism at are the Joint List and Ra'am who secured a historic combined total of 19 seats, potentially positioning them as kingmakers in the government formation process.

共同名单的一位消息人士告诉福克斯新闻数字版,该联盟可能会支持艾森科特成为第一位被委任组建政府的议员。如果两个主要阿拉伯政党都支持他,他将获得代表超过61个议席所需数量的政党的推荐。

A Joint List source told Fox News Digital that the alliance is likely to endorse Eisenkot to be the first lawmaker tasked with forming a government. If both predominantly Arab parties were to back him, he would receive recommendations from parties representing more than the 61 seats needed.

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡于周日(2025年7月27日)在耶路撒冷举行的一次会议上向听众发表讲话。(美联社照片/Ohad Zwigenberg摄)Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to the audience at a conference in Jerusalem, Sunday, July 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

被委任组建政府的议员将有28天的时间完成任务,总统有权批准最多14天的延期。

The lawmaker tasked with forming a government will have 28 days to do so, with the president authorized to grant an extension of up to 14 additional days.

磋商将按照议席数量从少到多的顺序进行,首先是各赢得六个议席的宗教犹太复国主义-泽胡特党和沙斯党,接着是获得七个议席的以色列家园党。

Consultations will be held in ascending order of seat count, beginning with Religious Zionism-Zehut and Shas, which each won six seats, followed by Yisrael Beiteinu, which secured seven.

周四,赫尔佐格将分别会晤犹太经文妥拉党和犹太力量党领导人,这两个政党各赢得七席,接着是民主党和拉姆党,各赢得八席,以及共同名单(11席)、贝亚哈德党(12席)、亚沙尔党(21席)和利库德党(27席)。

On Thursday, Herzog will meet with the leaders of United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit, which each won seven seats, followed by The Democrats and Ra'am, which each won eight, the Joint List (11), BeYachad (12), Yashar (21) and Likud (27).

国防和政府事务评论员阿米尔·奥伦对福克斯新闻数字版表示,虽然赫尔佐格在形式上可以自由选择任命谁来组建政府,但他倾向于选择提名获得议会多数席位政党支持的候选人。

Defense and government affairs commentator Amir Oren told Fox News Digital that while Herzog is formally free to choose whom to task with forming a government, he would be inclined to select the candidate whose nomination is backed by parties representing a majority of Knesset seats.

以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格在耶路撒冷接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访。(Yoav Dudkevitch/TPS-IL for Fox News Digital摄)Israeli President Isaac Herzog during an interview with Fox News Digital in Jerusalem, Israel. (Yoav Dudkevitch/TPS-IL for Fox News Digital)

“然后他必须任命艾森科特组建下一届政府。这并不意味着艾森科特会成功。如果他失败,就必须将组阁权交还给总统,”奥伦说。

"He must then task Eisenkot with forming the next government. That does not mean Eisenkot will succeed. If he fails, he will have to return the mandate to the president," Oren said.

实际上,鉴于反对派阵营内部存在利益分歧,艾森科特可能难以组建一个拥有61席的执政联盟。贝亚哈德党领袖纳夫塔利·贝内特和以色列贝特努党领袖阿维格多尔·利伯曼不太可能同意加入一个依赖共同名单支持的政府,因为后者持亲巴勒斯坦立场并反对犹太复国主义。

Eisenkot may, in fact, struggle to assemble a 61-seat governing coalition, given competing interests within the opposition bloc. BeYachad leader Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beiteinu chief Avigdor Liberman are unlikely to agree to serve in a government reliant on the Joint List, given the latter’s pro-Palestinian positions and opposition to Zionism.

然而,理论上,反对派阵营有可能同意组建一个少数派政府,由阿拉伯政党在联盟之外提供支持。

It is theoretically possible, however, that the opposition bloc could agree to form a minority government with the Arab parties providing support from outside the coalition.

虽然以色列没有在选举后立即组建少数派政府的先例,但此类安排在议会任期内曾出现过。最近一次是在内塔尼亚胡现任任期内,一个极端正统派政党因兵役问题退出联盟,但继续在联盟之外支持政府。

While Israel has no precedent for forming a minority government immediately following an election, such arrangements have occurred during a Knesset term. Most recently, during Netanyahu’s current term, one of the ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew from the coalition over a dispute related to military conscription but continued to support the government from outside.

宗教犹太复国主义-泽胡特党、犹太力量党和沙斯党周二晚间各自向福克斯新闻数字版确认,他们将在组建政府的磋商期间向赫尔佐格推荐内塔尼亚胡。

Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit and Shas each confirmed to Fox News Digital on Tuesday night that they would recommend Netanyahu to Herzog during consultations on forming a government.

耶路撒冷安全与外交事务中心总裁丹·迪克(Dan Diker)告诉福克斯新闻数字版,贝内特和利伯曼最近对艾森科特的支持表明,他们正在远离组建全国统一政府的前景。

Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told Fox News Digital that Bennett and Liberman’s recent endorsement of Eisenkot suggests they are moving away from the prospect of a national unity government.

雅沙尔党领袖加迪·艾森科特于2026年8月12日在耶路撒冷出席耶路撒冷居民大会。这位以色列国防军退役参谋长、现雅沙尔党领袖加迪·艾森科特已成为本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在10月大选前最主要的挑战者。Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot attends the Jerusalem Residents Conference on Aug. 12, 2026 in Jerusalem. Gadi Eisenkot, a retired chief of the Israel Defense Forces and current leader of the Yashar party, has emerged as the foremost challenger to Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of October's general elec

“考虑到即将与被称为伊朗政权的末日死亡邪教、以色列以及由此延伸的西方世界其余部分发生冲突,我认为内塔尼亚胡、艾森科特、前总理贝内特和前国防部长利伯曼现在应该找到一种合作方式,”他说。

"I think it would behoove Netanyahu, Eisenkot, former Prime Minister Bennett and former Defense Minister Liberman to find a way to work together now, given the imminent clash between the apocalyptic death cult known as the Iranian regime, Israel and, by extension, the rest of the Western world," he said.

给内塔尼亚胡带来麻烦的是,第26届议会定于11月10日宣誓就职。新当选的议员预计将开始组建委员会并推动立法,而现任总理和部长仍留任,并在新议会的监督下继续履行职责,以确保政府延续性。

Complicating matters for Netanyahu, the 26th Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on Nov. 10. Its newly elected members are expected to begin forming committees and advancing legislation, while the current prime minister and ministers remain in office and continue carrying out their duties under the oversight of the new parliament, ensuring continuity of government.

“他们正在竭尽全力将内塔尼亚胡赶下台,我们现在正在看到关于更换议长的讨论。然后他们可以开始试图在一个由阿拉伯政党占据19个席位的议会中推动立法,这对内塔尼亚胡来说将非常不舒服,”迪克说。

"They are doing everything they can to push Netanyahu out of office, and we are seeing that now with discussions about replacing the Knesset speaker. They can then begin trying to advance legislation in a Knesset with 19 seats held by Arab parties that would be very uncomfortable for Netanyahu," Diker said.

2026年10月27日晚,在以色列特拉维夫的雅沙尔党竞选总部,前军方首脑、雅沙尔党领袖加迪·艾森科特的一名支持者对出口民调做出反应。路透社/Shir Torem摄(Shir Torem/路透社)A supporter of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, reacts to the exit poll at his party headquarters, on the evening of Israel's national election, in Tel Aviv, Israel October 27, 2026. REUTERS/Shir Torem (Shir Torem/Reuters)

奥伦指出了另一个潜在挑战,暗示看守政府发动军事行动的能力可能面临政治限制,这可能会使任何与伊朗重启敌对行动变得复杂,即使美国总统唐纳德·特朗普发起此类行动。

Oren highlighted another potential challenge, suggesting that the caretaker government's ability to launch military operations could face political constraints, potentially complicating any resumption of hostilities with Iran, even if U.S. President Donald Trump were to initiate such action.

前议会议员多夫·利普曼(Dov Lipman)告诉福克斯新闻数字版,艾森科特似乎很可能成为第一个被委托组建政府的立法者,但他表示,大多数以色列人倾向于一个以利库德党、亚希杜和贝亚哈德为基础的全国统一政府,并可能有一个或多个较小的政党加入。

Former Knesset member Dov Lipman told Fox News Digital that Eisenkot appears likely to be the first lawmaker tasked with forming a government, but suggested that most Israelis favor a national unity government built around Likud, Yashar and BeYachad, with one or more smaller parties also joining.

利普曼表示:“作为第一步,艾森科特可能会接触利库德集团,邀请其加入由他领导的政府,而利库德集团将予以拒绝。随后艾森科特将不得不做出决定,因为利伯曼不太可能同意与阿拉伯政党共同组阁。”

"As a first step, Eisenkot may approach Likud and ask it to join a government under his leadership, which Likud will reject. Eisenkot will then have to make a decision, as Liberman is unlikely to agree to serve in a government alongside Arab parties," Lipman said.

“艾森科特很可能组阁失败,随后授权将移交给内塔尼亚胡,后者也很可能失败。”这将触发一个为期21天的时期,在此期间任何议会议员均可在至少61名议员支持下尝试组阁。利普曼称,如果进程发展到这一阶段,艾森科特可能同意在内塔尼亚胡手下任职两年,以避免国家陷入再一次大选。

"Eisenkot will likely fail to form a government, after which the mandate will pass to Netanyahu, who will also likely fail." That would trigger a 21-day period during which any Knesset member could attempt to form a government with the backing of at least 61 lawmakers. If the process reaches that stage, Eisenkot might agree to serve under Netanyahu for two years to avoid sending the country to another election, Lipman said.

拉阿姆党领袖曼苏尔·阿巴斯于2026年7月13日在耶路撒冷的以色列议会(克内塞特)全体会议上发言。(Ronen Zvulun/路透社摄)Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, speaks at the plenum at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem, July 13, 2026 (Ronen Zvulun/Reuters)

以色列民主研究所高级研究员吉迪翁·拉哈特教授对福克斯新闻数字版表示,鉴于反对派领袖在2020年与时任“蓝白党”领袖本尼·甘茨达成的权力分享协议中的经历,内塔尼亚胡需要做出让步,以说服他们相信他会信守承诺。

Prof. Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, told Fox News Digital that Netanyahu would need to make concessions to persuade opposition leaders that he would honor his commitments, given their experience with the 2020 power-sharing agreement with then-Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz.

根据该协议,内塔尼亚胡担任总理前18个月,甘茨担任轮值总理兼国防部长,随后于2021年11月17日接任总理。然而,因政府未能在2020年12月截止日期前通过国家预算,该安排告吹,触发议会自动解散并重新大选。甘茨从未就任总理。

Under the agreement, Netanyahu was to serve as prime minister for the first 18 months, with Gantz serving as alternate prime minister and defense minister before taking over as premier on Nov. 17, 2021. However, the arrangement unraveled after the government failed to pass a state budget by the December 2020 deadline, triggering the Knesset's automatic dissolution and new elections. Gantz never assumed the premiership.

拉哈特援引以色列1984年至1988年的民族团结政府作为先例,称类似安排可行。

Rahat pointed to Israel’s 1984-1988 national unity government as a precedent, saying a similar arrangement could work.

他说:“当时以色列仍陷入黎巴嫩战争,以色列国防军部队驻扎在该国,经济面临严重危机,年通胀率超过400%。在此背景下,利库德集团和工党根据轮换协议组建民族团结政府,由佩雷斯担任总理前两年,随后由沙米尔担任接下来两年的总理。”

"At the time, Israel was still embroiled in the Lebanon War, with IDF forces deployed in the country, while the economy was facing a severe crisis, with annual inflation exceeding 400%. Against that backdrop, Likud and Labor formed a national unity government under a rotation agreement, with Shimon Peres serving as prime minister for the first two years, followed by Yitzhak Shamir for the next two," he said.

拉哈特表示,虽然公众的大部分人可能会支持这一点,但仍存在一些可能引发紧张局势的问题。

While large parts of the public would likely support it, Rahat said, there are still issues that may create tension.

“他们将不得不冻结内塔尼亚胡政府发起的司法改革,找到一种调查10月7日事件的方式,正如反对党所要求的那样,并就内塔尼亚胡在适当时候离职的机制达成一致。但在重大安全和经济问题上,团结政府可能相当有效,”拉哈特说。

"They will have to freeze the judicial overhaul launched by Netanyahu’s government, find a way to investigate Oct. 7, as demanded by opposition parties and agree on a mechanism for Netanyahu to leave office when the time comes. But when it comes to major issues of security and the economy, unity governments can be quite effective," Rahat said.

“然而,一旦他们解决了主要挑战,就会开始内斗,奇迹也就结束了。”

"Once they resolve the major challenges, however, they start fighting among themselves and the magic is over."

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