“这是特朗普主义的终结！”“保守派民粹主义，安息吧。”“再见了，MAGA！”如果这些断言听起来似曾相识，那是因为它们确实如此。如今在专栏文章、网络和播客中作此预测的同一拨人，在特朗普第一次弹劾案后、2020年大选中、1月6日事件后、第二次弹劾案后，以及针对他的每一项刑事起诉之后，都曾作出过同样的预测。他们的一厢情愿和以前一样愚蠢。
"This is the end of Trumpism!" "Conservative Populism, RIP." "Goodbye, MAGA!" If these pronouncements sound familiar, it’s because they are. The same people predicting this now in op-eds, online and in podcasts predicted the same after Trump’s first impeachment, after the 2020 election, after January 6th, after the second impeachment, and after every criminal indictment filed against him. Their wishful thinking is as dim-witted now as it was then.
任何公正的政治分析人士都会承认，在过去十年里，唐纳德·特朗普一直是世界上最具影响力的领导人，他所取得的成就超过了至少过去100年里任何一位共和党总统。不应该根据中期选举的结果来评判他的政绩，而应根据他的实际成果来评判。如果当前讨论的问题是“特朗普的政策应该继续吗？”，那么记录给出的答案是肯定的——无论在政治、经济、地缘政治还是文化方面。
Any fair-minded political analyst would admit that over the past decade, Donald Trump has been the most consequential leader in the world, and that he has accomplished more than any Republican president in at least the past 100 years. His record should not be judged on midterm results but on what it has delivered. And if the question on the table is "Should Trump’s policies continue?" the record says yes — politically, economically, geopolitically and culturally.
批评人士曾预测特朗普会摧毁共和党并让美国保守主义倒退。事实恰恰相反。在整个西方，右翼要么已经崩溃，要么已经向执政共识妥协。加拿大自2015年以来就没有过保守派总理。英国保守党在下议院650个席位中仅占据118席。玛丽娜·勒庞在法国总统选举中的得票率从未超过百分之四十二。德国保守党与社会民主党联合执政，而在意大利，《经济学人》最近称赞焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼“向中间路线靠拢”。
Critics predicted Trump would destroy the Republican Party and set back American conservatism. The opposite happened. Across the West, the right has either collapsed or made its peace with the governing consensus. Canada hasn't had a conservative prime minister since 2015. Britain's Conservatives hold just 118 of 650 seats in the House of Commons. Marine Le Pen has never cleared 42 percent of the vote in a French presidential election. Germany's conservatives govern in coalition with the Social Democrats, and in Italy, The Economist recently praised Giorgia Meloni for "tacking to the middle."
唯独在美国，右翼一直奉行低税收、放松监管、社会保守主义和强大军事力量的政策——并且不断赢得胜利。民主党人击败约翰·麦凯恩和米特·罗姆尼这样的温和派共和党人易如反掌。特朗普却在近十年的大部分时间里让民主党人感到困惑。西方右翼没有其他任何领导人能这样说。我们被告知民粹主义会破坏经济。事实并非如此。
Only in America has the right governed on low taxes, lighter regulation, social conservatism and a strong military — and kept winning. Democrats had little trouble beating moderate Republicans like John McCain and Mitt Romney. Trump has confounded them for most of a decade. No other leader on the Western right can say that. re told populism would wreck the economy. It hasn't.
特朗普与国会合作减税并取消规管，他还精简了一个臃肿的官僚机构：《华盛顿邮报》的数据显示，2024年12月至2026年6月期间，联邦公务员队伍缩减了25.5万人，即12%。
Trump worked with Congress to cut taxes and roll back regulation, and he has trimmed a bloated bureaucracy: Between December 2024 and June 2026, the federal workforce shrank by 255,000 employees, or 12 percent, according to The Washington Post.
普通家庭已经受益。以2025年美元币值计算，经通胀调整后的美国家庭实际收入中位数从2016年的77,230美元上升至去年的创纪录水平87,460美元，这两个数字都代表处于正中间的家庭。对20世纪80年代和90年代的怀念是可以理解的，但美国中产阶级从未像今天这样富有。
Ordinary families have benefited. Real median household income rose from $77,230 in 2016 to a record $87,460 last year, both measured in 2025 dollars. Those figures are adjusted for inflation and describe the household squarely in the middle. Nostalgia for the '80s and '90s is understandable, but the American middle class has never been richer than it is today.
曾是拜登政府决定性败笔的通胀已被遏制。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心通胀率在2022年9月达到6.6%的峰值，到2024年11月仍为3.3%。今年9月，该数字为2.6%。3.7%的整体通胀率与欧元区的3.8%和英国的3.5%持平。美国人并非受到独特的挤压。
Inflation, the defining failure of the Biden years, has been tamed. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, peaked at 6.6 percent in September 2022 and was still 3.3 percent in November 2024. This September it stood at 2.6 percent. Headline inflation of 3.7 percent is in line with the eurozone's 3.8 percent and Britain's 3.5 percent. Americans are not uniquely squeezed.
经济增长正在超越我们的同类国家。经合组织在9月预测，美国2026年实际GDP增长率为2.2%，为七国集团（G7）最高。最新数据甚至更为强劲：第三季度经济以按年率计算的3.4%的速度增长，相比之下，欧盟为0.5%，加拿大约为1.3%。
Growth is outpacing our peers. In September, the OECD projected U.S. real GDP growth of 2.2 percent for 2026, the highest in the G7. The latest data are stronger still: the economy grew at a 3.4 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, compared with 0.5 percent for the EU and roughly 1.3 percent for Canada.
结果就是，美国人是所有主要经济体中最富有的人，而且优势巨大。国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，2026年美国的人均GDP将达到95,212美元，而德国为65,699美元，英国为61,108美元，加拿大为60,105美元，法国为51,448美元，日本为35,400美元，中国为15,371美元。美国不仅是地球上最富有的主要国家，而且正在拉开与西方其他国家的差距。
The upshot is that Americans are by far the wealthiest people of any major economy. The IMF projects 2026 GDP per capita of $95,212 in the United States, against $65,699 in Germany, $61,108 in Britain, $60,105 in Canada, $51,448 in France, $35,400 in Japan and $15,371 in China. The United States is not merely the richest major country on earth; it is pulling away from the rest of the West.
批评人士曾警告称，特朗普的外交政策将使美国陷入孤立和软弱。然而，他正在开辟一条战胜中国（我们唯一的严肃地缘政治对手）的道路。
Critics warned that Trump's foreign policy would leave America isolated and weak. Instead, he is charting a course to victory over China, our only serious geopolitical rival.
为什么特朗普将目光锁定在大部分被冰雪覆盖的世界最大岛屿——格陵兰岛：3张图表在特朗普之前，华盛顿的建制派坚信中国的崛起对美国有利，奥巴马政府直至2012年仍表达过这一观点。特朗普则采取了更具现实主义的视角。他的关税政策阻止了国家补贴的中国汽车摧毁我们的汽车产业。他在巴拿马运河和格陵兰岛的举动剥夺了北京在我们西半球获得立足点的机会。
WHY TRUMP ZEROED IN ON GREENLAND, THE WORLD’S LARGEST ISLAND, MOSTLY COVERED IN ICE — IN 3 CHARTS Before Trump, Washington's establishment insisted that China's rise was good for America, a view the Obama administration voiced as late as 2012. Trump took a more realistic view. His tariffs kept state-subsidized Chinese cars from gutting our auto industry. His moves on the Panama Canal and Greenland denied Beijing footholds in our hemisphere.
他正在重建一支因意识形态而变得危险虚弱且分心的军队。我们的经济领先优势仍在不断扩大：2016年，美国GDP比中国多7.3万亿美元；去年，这一差距达到11.3万亿美元。
He is rebuilding a military that had grown dangerously weak and distracted by ideology. And our economic lead keeps widening: in 2016, U.S. GDP exceeded China's by $7.3 trillion; last year, the gap was $11.3 trillion.
在中东，特朗普严重削弱了威胁整个地区的伊朗军队。批评人士曾预测霍尔木兹海峡将被关闭。事实并非如此：《华尔街日报》报道称，波斯湾的石油出口（包括霍尔木兹海峡的运量和替代路线）目前已超过战前水平。所有这一切的实现都没有通过入侵或派遣地面部队。随着军队更加强大、经济蓬勃发展，美国在海外的影响力很可能达到了2000年代初以来的最高水平。
In the Middle East, Trump has severely degraded an Iranian military that threatened the entire region. Critics predicted the Strait of Hormuz would be closed. It hasn't been: The Wall Street Journal reports that Persian Gulf oil exports, counting both Hormuz shipments and alternative routes, now exceed prewar levels. All of this has been achieved without an invasion or boots on the ground. With a stronger military and a booming economy, American leverage abroad is likely the greatest it has been since the early 2000s.
丽兹·皮克：毫无疑问——民主党赢得中期选举将带来混乱而非“负担能力”一些人曾警告社会保守派，特朗普并不真正认同他们的优先事项，支持他会让他们后悔。看看他取得了什么成果。
LIZ PEEK: GUARANTEED — DEMOCRAT MIDTERM WIN WOULD DELIVER CHAOS NOT 'AFFORDABILITY' Some warned social conservatives that Trump didn't really share their priorities and that they would regret backing him. Consider what he delivered.
四十年以来，共和党领导人承诺要对罗诉韦德案采取行动。特朗普兑现了这一承诺，罗诉韦德案已被废除。与过去的共和党总统不同，他没有任命那些向左倾斜的大法官，并且在大多数关键宪法问题上，最高法院自20世纪30年代初以来首次拥有了稳固的保守派多数。
For four decades, Republican leaders promised to do something about Roe v. Wade. Trump kept that promise, and Roe is gone. Unlike past Republican presidents, he has not appointed justices who drift left, and on most key constitutional questions the Supreme Court now has a solid conservative majority for the first time since the early 1930s.
边境对非法移民关闭了——这是另一个几十年来只有特朗普兑现的共和党承诺。我们曾被告知这将破坏经济。上面的数据证明并非如此。
The border is closed to illegal immigration — another decades-old Republican promise that only Trump fulfilled. We were told this would devastate the economy. The data above say otherwise.
无论按照哪种严肃的标准来衡量，特朗普运动都是美国历史上最成功的运动之一，而且国家因此变得更好了——无论是与我们的过去相比，还是与我们海外的同类国家相比。
By any serious measure, the Trump movement ranks among the most successful in American history, and the country is better off for it — compared both with where we were and with our peers abroad.
耐人寻味的是，民主党人并没有认真地主张他们会带来更强劲的经济、更坚定的外交政策或更安全的街道。选民只要看看加拿大和西欧，就能看出他们的方法会产生什么样的结果。相反，他们的竞选建立在一个单一的承诺之上：针对特朗普以及所有曾与他共事过的人。这是一场关于报复而非繁荣的竞选。
Tellingly, Democrats aren't seriously arguing that they would deliver a stronger economy, a firmer foreign policy or safer streets. Voters can see what their approach produces by looking at Canada and Western Europe. Instead, their campaign rests on a single promise: to go after Trump and everyone who has worked with him. It is a campaign of retribution, not prosperity.
当然，包括本文作者在内的选民对伊朗冲突感到沮丧，他们希望油价更低。另一些人则只是对政治感到厌倦，还有一些人可能希望民主党获胜至少能给美国带来一些平静。但请记住里根总统说过的话：“自由距离灭绝永远不过只有一代人的距离。”自由来之不易。今天的美国人比几十年来任何时候都更强、更富有、更安全、更自由，而那些希望看到这个国家受挫、甚至受辱的人心知肚明。
Of course, voters, including this one, are frustrated with the Iran conflict, and they want lower gas prices. Others are simply tired of politics, and some may hope a Democratic win would at least bring some calm to America. But remember what President Reagan said: "Freedom is never more than one generation from extinction." Freedom does not come cheap. Americans today are stronger, richer, safer and freer than we have been in decades, and those who want to see this country humbled, even humiliated, know it.
社会主义者、马克思主义者、甚至是平庸的民主党人今年参选并不是为了让你的生活变得更好。他们参选是为了惩罚你，因为你想要的东西超过了政治建制派过去施舍给你的残羹冷炙。
The socialists, Marxists, and even run-of-the-mill Democrats did not run this year to make your life better. They ran to punish you for wanting more than the scraps the political establishment used to toss you.
不要上当。你能想象共和党人因为里根在1986年失去了8个参议院席位而抛弃他吗？民主党人在奥巴马于2014年失去了9个参议院席位后抛弃他了吗？当然没有。
Do not fall for it. Can you imagine Republicans abandoning Reagan because he lost eight Senate seats in 1986? Did the Democrats abandon Obama after he lost nine Senate seats in 2014? Of course not.
我们知道哪些政策有效。我们知道哪些政策是一场灾难。我们知道如何为我们自己和我们的孩子建设一个更好的国家。我们知道民主党人是如何险些摧毁美国的，以及如果他们有机会，他们打算对我们的宪法做些什么。
We know which policies work. We know which policies have been a disaster. We know how to build a better country for ourselves and our children. We know how Democrats almost destroyed America and what they intend to do to our Constitution if they get the chance.
我们可能无法拥有一切想要的东西——我们可能永远都不会拥有——但我们已经取得了巨大的进步，我们只需要继续不懈地为我们想要的国家奋斗。
We may not have everything we want — we probably never will — but we have already made huge progress, and we just need to keep relentlessly fighting for the type of country we want.