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特朗普押注自己的直觉——却引发了一场蓝色浪潮Trump bet on his instincts – and triggered a blue wave

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2026年11月1日,总统唐纳德·特朗普在艾奥瓦州迪比克的五旗中心举行的中期选举竞选集会上发表讲话。President Donald Trump speaks at a midterm campaign rally at Five Flags Center on Nov. 1, 2026, in Dubuque, Iowa.

在周二选举前的数月里,唐纳德·特朗普总统在一次又一次的集会上反复提出一个简单的请求:假装我就在选票上。

For months leading up to Tuesday’s election, President Donald Trump repeatedly delivered a simple ask in rally after rally: pretend I’m on the ballot.

周二,全国各地的选民似乎遵循了他的指导,但方式并非总统所期望的那样。

Voters across the nation appeared to follow his guidance on Tuesday, but not in the way the president intended.

民主党在一场惊人的胜利中夺取了众议院和参议院的控制权,这场胜利有望动摇华盛顿的权力平衡,并对2028年选举产生早期影响。

Democrats wrested control of the House and Senate in a stunning victory poised to shake up the balance of power in Washington and have an early impact on the 2028 elections.

尽管总统在竞选路上一再恳请人们像他参选一样投票,但到周二晚上,特朗普已在Truth Social上发帖称自己并未在选票上——他声称,如果他在选票上,共和党将以“压倒性优势”获胜。他的助手们承认,民主党在选举中遭遇了响亮而广泛的失利,并辩称,MAGA选民没有出现在投票站,是因为特朗普实际上并不在选票上。

Despite the president’s pleas on the campaign trail for people to vote as if he were running, by Tuesday night, Trump was dashing off Truth Social posts saying he had not been on the ballot — if he had been, he claimed, Republicans would have won “IN A LANDSLIDE.”His aides, acknowledging the resounding and widespread losses to Democrats, argued that MAGA voters didn’t show up at the polls because Trump wasn’t actually on the ticket.

周二晚,随着选举结果陆续公布,一名白宫官员表示:“这几乎是最坏的情况。”该人士获准匿名,以便坦率谈论白宫内部的情绪,称许多特朗普助手对多个州级竞选中的差距感到“震惊”,这些差距在许多情况下甚至超过了衡量共和党支持率的最悲观民调。

“This is pretty much worst-case scenario,” one White House official said late Tuesday as the results rolled in. This person, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the mood inside the White House, said many Trump aides were “shocked” by the margins in numerous statewide races, which in many cases surpassed even the most pessimistic polls gauging Republican support.

但周二晚上,当白宫官员在沮丧的东厅观票会上关注选举结果时,他们试图改写历史,将总统与他此前的言论和决定划清界限。

But as White House officials tracked returns inside a downbeat East Room watch party Tuesday night, they sought to rewrite history and distance the president from his prior statements and decisions.

“特朗普总统并未在选票上,事实证明,特朗普选民只有在他参选时才会出现投票,”另一名白宫官员表示,该官员要求匿名,以便坦率谈论选举结果。“此外,候选人的质量很重要,特朗普总统在推动许多在选票上的候选人方面,比这些候选人自己做得更好。”当然,特朗普将永远不会再出现在选票上,这一现实开始让那些试图收拾残局的其党成员意识到。

“President Trump was not on the ballot, and it’s proven that Trump voters show up when he is on the ballot,” another White House official said, requesting anonymity to talk candidly about the results. “Also, candidate quality matters, and President Trump did a better job promoting many of the candidates on the ballot than the candidates did themselves.”Of course, Trump will never be on the ballot again, a reality that began to sink in for members of his party who were looking to pick up the pieces.

“低调的党派理应得到这个,”一名支持特朗普的竞选团队工作人员说,该人要求匿名以便坦率谈论。“我们把胜利视为理所当然。”“我希望党派能从中吸取正确的教训,”该助手补充道。“是时候让鲁比奥当总统,重新致力于赢得选举,而不仅仅是‘怼自由派’了,”他们补充道,指的是国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥,一位可能的2028年竞选者。

“Low-key the party deserves this,” said one staffer on a losing campaign that Trump backed, granted anonymity to talk candidly. “We took our victories for granted.”“I hope the party learns the right lessons from this,” the aide added. “Time for a President Rubio and get back to trying to win elections instead of just owning the libs” they added referring to the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a possible 2028 contender.

鉴于席卷全国的“蓝色浪潮”规模看似巨大,共和党人无论特朗普是否参与,都可能面临一次清算。民主党似乎在众议院至少赢得30个席位,并在红州翻转七个席位,从而夺得参议院多数席位。民主党的胜利将动摇华盛顿,并将影响2028年总统竞选。

There is likely to be a reckoning for Republicans, whether or not Trump participates, given the apparent scale of the blue wave that washed over the country. Democrats appear to have picked up at least 30 House seats and flipped seven seats in red states to capture the Senate majority. The Democratic victories will shake up Washington and reverberate into the 2028 presidential campaign.

事实上,共和党的惨败有望成为现代史上执政党最惨重的中期选举失利之一。共和党的失败规模必然会激发对总统的国会调查,动摇白宫工作人员,并渗透到州政府,这些都可能在特朗普总统任期最后两年重塑他的遗产。

In fact, the Republican drubbing is on track to become one of the worst midterm losses for a party in power in modern history. The scale of the GOP’s defeat is certain to energize congressional investigations of the president, shake up the White House staff and seep through state governments in ways that could reshape Trump’s legacy during the last two years of his presidency.

随着选举结果陆续公布,白宫助手们迅速开始互相指责——私下里攻击同事的战略失误,并将高油价归咎于伊朗战争等因素。但最初对这种做法抱怨的人谨慎地避免指责特朗普本人。

White House aides had quickly started engaging in the blame game as the results poured in – privately attacking their own colleagues for strategic errors and blaming the Iran war for high gas prices, among other factors. But those who complained about the approach were initially careful not to blame Trump himself.

在民主党显然将掌控众议院和参议院之后,一名白宫官员承认:“总统确实缺乏信息纪律。”特朗普本人在事发后立即显得毫不道歉。午夜刚过,他在福克斯新闻频道发言,指责一些候选人的竞选方式,同时为伊朗战争辩护。他确实承认油价在选民的考量中起到了关键作用。

After it became clear Democrats would gain control of both the House and Senate, one White House official acknowledged: “There certainly was a lack of message discipline by the president.”Trump himself appeared unapologetic in the immediate aftermath. Just after midnight, he spoke on Fox News and blamed some of the candidates for how they campaigned, while defending the war in Iran. He did acknowledge that gas prices played a key role in voters’ calculations.

“我认为是汽油价格的问题。人们赞同我在伊朗问题上所做的,但他们可能真的不愿承担短期后果……为汽油支付更多费用,而你知道,我理解这一点。也就是说,我不赞同,”总统在福克斯新闻频道上说。

“I think it’s the gasoline price. People agree with what I’m doing on Iran, but they really probably weren’t willing to do the short-term consequence of…paying more for gasoline, and that you know, I understand that. That’s, it’s like I don’t agree with it,” the president said on Fox.

尽管此前曾试图事先对选举结果表示怀疑,但特朗普表示他会接受结果,甚至祝贺民主党度过了一个强势的夜晚。“他们做得不错,”他说。“他们等了11年终于等到了这次,但我不认为这是对我的打击。我认为,在经济方面,在我们所做的所有事情方面,我们经历了总统任期历史上最伟大的两年。”特朗普确实投入了大量政治资本。

Despite previous attempts to preemptively cast doubt on the results, Trump said he would accept them, even congratulating Democrats on their strong night. “They did a good job,” he said. “They’ve been looking for this one for 11 years and they finally got it, but I don’t view it as a hit on me. I think we’ve had the greatest two years in the history of the presidency, in terms of the economy, in terms of all the things that we’ve done.”Trump did put a lot of his political skin in the game.

特朗普推动了关键决策,从而改变了参议院的控制权。在得克萨斯州,他帮助击败了一位连任四届的现任共和党参议员,支持了一位甚至连共和党人也认为存在深刻缺陷的候选人。在北卡罗来纳州,他攻击一位现任共和党参议员,并用一名前共和党州委员会主席取代了他,这位候选人在整个竞选中都举步维艰。在南卡罗来纳州——该州近一个世纪以来没有向参议院输送过民主党人——他迅速支持了一位政治新手,即已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的妹妹,并帮助翻转了另一个稳固的红州席位。

Trump drove critical decisions that flipped the Senate. In Texas, he helped knock out a sitting four-term Republican senator in a primary for a candidate even Republicans saw as deeply flawed. In North Carolina, he attacked a sitting GOP senator and replaced him with a former Republican party chair who struggled throughout the race. In South Carolina, which hadn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century, he quickly backed a political novice – the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham – and helped flip another reliably red seat.

5月,有人问及他决定支持得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿——帕克斯顿面临众多丑闻和法律争议——而非现任参议员约翰·科宁,以及参议院领导层是否支持这一策略,总统说:“他们会接受的。他们想赢。我知道如何获胜。”

Asked in May about his decision to endorse Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — who faced numerous scandals and legal controversies — over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and whether Senate leadership was on board with the strategy the president said, “they’ll be alright with it. They wanna win. I know how to win.”

特朗普在真实社交上表达了同样的信心,谈到詹姆斯·塔拉里科时写道:“我相信,任何与他竞选的人,无论是生病的、无能的、垂死之人,甚至是一个孩子,都能赢。”

Trump echoed that confidence on Truth Social writing about James Talarico, “I believe that any human being running against him, sick, incompetent, close to death or, even a child would win.”

在北卡罗来纳州,总统威胁要对共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯发起初选挑战,此前蒂利斯打破党派界限,投票反对“一项宏大美丽法案”。蒂利斯宣布不再寻求连任,特朗普指定了前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·何利参选该席位。上个月在该州的一次集会上,特朗普告诉支持者:“你知道,我说,迈克尔,我很希望你参选参议员。是我让他进入这个局面。我希望,我希望这能奏效。”

In North Carolina the president threatened GOP Sen.Thom Tillis with a primary challenge after Tillis broke party lines to vote against the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”Tillis announced he would not seek re-election and Trump handpicked Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee to run for the seat. At a rally in the state last month, Trump told supporters, “And you know, I said, Michael, I’d love you to run for the Senate. I’m the one that got him into this. I hope, I hope it works.”

在时任参议员林赛·格雷厄姆突然去世后,总统说,他在格雷厄姆的妹妹达琳访问椭圆形办公室期间,亲自请她参选该席位。特朗普在真实社交上写道:“在她访问期间,我请达琳,为了我们国家的利益,于2026年8月11日星期二的共和党特别初选中参选美国参议员。”总统亲自干预挑选候选人,并坚信特朗普品牌的力量将推动他的MAGA基本盘拯救他的政党。

Following the sudden death of then-Sen. Lindsey Graham, the president said he personally asked his sister Darline to run for the seat during her visit to the Oval Office. Trump wrote on Truth Social, “During her visit, I asked Darline, for the Good of our Nation, to run for the U.S. Senate in the Special Republican Primary on Tuesday, August 11, 2026.”As he personally intervened to select candidates to run, the president maintained the power of the Trump brand would propel his MAGA base to save his party.

在密西西比州的一次集会上,总统上个月告诉支持者:“所以在这次选举中,如果可以的话,我请你们假装我在选票上。”

Rallying in Mississippi the president told supporters last month, “So in this election, if you would, I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot.”

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