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共和党究竟(严重)错在哪里What Went (Terribly) Wrong for the GOP

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欢迎收看金·斯特拉塞尔的《万物纵横》,本节目对华盛顿(及之外)的运作进行新闻式分析。为您提供本周那些被过度炒作和被忽视的事件的内幕。点击此处,阅读本周内容。

Welcome to All Things with Kim Strassel, a newsy analysis of the workings of D.C. (and beyond). Get the inside track on both the overhyped and overlooked events of the week. here, and read this week’s edition below.

这是一场血洗。共和党人进入周二晚间时对民调不屑一顾,而结果证明民调高估了他们的实力。共和党至少失去了七个参议院席位(包括在明显的红州),至少25个众议院席位(情况还会更糟),至少五个州长职位(这是自2010年以来民主党首次占据多数),以及至少六个州立法机构的控制权(很可能还会有更多)。

It was a bloodbath. Republicans went into Tuesday night dismissing the polls, and the polls turned out to overestimate their strength. The GOP lost at least seven Senate seats (including in notably red states), at least 25 House seats (it will get worse), at least five governorships (marking the first time since 2010 that Democrats hold a majority), and control over at least six chambers in state legislatures (more likely to come).

这不是寻常的中期选举“失利”,引人注目的是,这几乎完全是自找的。唐纳德·特朗普和他的政党在2024年赢得了一场令人印象深刻的胜利,却因一连串糟糕的政策、糟糕的形象和糟糕的候选人而挥霍了选民的好感。来看看更大的错误:余波将持续数月(议长迈克·约翰逊已计划辞去领导职务),对2028年共和党总统竞选可能产生巨大影响。

This was no usual midterm “loss,” and what’s striking is that it was almost entirely self-inflicted. Donald Trump and his party won an impressive victory in 2024, only to squander the good grace of voters with a raft of bad policy, bad optics and bad candidates. A look at the bigger mistakes: The fallout will continue for months (Speaker Mike Johnson already plans to step down from the leadership), with potentially huge implications for the 2028 GOP presidential race.

民主党人也面临重大抉择,因为结果显示,这次选举更多是对共和党人的斥责,而非对左翼议程的拥护。我们至少都能同意一件事:政治不会变得无聊。

Democrats also face big choices, since the results show that this election was more a rebuke of Republicans than an embrace of the left’s agenda. We can at least all agree on one thing: Politics isn’t getting dull.

政治迷们可能还记得,民主党全国委员会在2023年与法律斗牛犬马克·埃利亚斯断绝了关系,此前这位诉讼打手积累了一连串丑闻。较少被注意到的是,显然所有过去的罪过都已被原谅,各方又回到了同一(强硬)阵线。埃利亚斯正处于持续发酵的阿拉斯加参议院乱局的核心——这场竞选尚未有结果。

Political junkies may remember how the Democratic National Committee in 2023 cut ties with legal pit bull Marc Elias, after the litigation hit man racked up a string of scandals. Less noticed is that apparently all past sins have been forgiven, and all sides are back on the same (hardball) page. Elias is front and center in the ongoing Alaska Senate mess—a race that hasn’t been called.

《纽约时报》关于阿拉斯加州民主党参议员候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉竞选活动的两篇重磅报道中,都出现了“埃利亚斯”这个名字。《纽约时报》9月的一篇报道详述了佩尔托拉对工作人员的虐待行为,并说明竞选团队曾一度请来其“律师事务所——埃利亚斯法律集团”来解雇或调岗助手:“其中两人安东·麦克帕兰和埃莉萨·里奥斯,已在三个竞选周期中负责佩尔托拉女士的政治运作。她的竞选经理里奥斯女士被解雇,她的幕僚长麦克帕兰先生被降职。”里奥斯最终接受了《纽约时报》的采访。

The Elias name featured in both of the New York Times’s bombshells about Alaska Democratic Senate nominee Mary Peltola’s campaign. A Times story in September detailed Peltola’s abusive behavior toward staff and explained that the campaign at one point pulled in its ‘law firm, the Elias Law Group” to terminate or reassign aides: “Two of them, Anton McParland and Elisa Rios, had been running Ms. Peltola’s political operation through three campaign cycles. Ms. Rios, her campaign manager, was fired, and Mr. McParland, her chief of staff, was demoted.”Rios ultimately talked to the Times.

《纽约时报》上周的报道讲述了佩尔托拉竞选团队如何与民主党参议院竞选委员会合作,招募一名名叫丹·沙利文的诱饵候选人,以便在真正的参议员丹·沙利文与佩尔托拉的对决中拉走他的选票。《纽约时报》指出,他们混淆选举的计谋之一涉及一位名叫杰奎琳·洛佩斯的女性,“她是埃利亚斯法律集团的律师,该律所同时代表该委员会和佩尔托拉竞选团队”。

Last week’s Times story about how the Peltola campaign worked with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to recruit a decoy candidate named Dan Sullivan to pull votes away from the real Sen. Dan Sullivan in his race against Peltola. The Times notes that part of their scheming to confuse the election involved a woman named Jacquelyn Lopez, “an attorney with the Elias Law Group, the firm that represents both the committee and the Peltola campaign.”

《纽约时报》的报道援引联邦选举委员会记录显示,一个支持佩尔托拉的超级政治行动委员会向一家公司支付了款项,该公司由一名与佩尔托拉团队合作招募诱饵候选人的民主党操盘手共同拥有。在下面的播客中,卡尔·罗夫问道,鉴于政治行动委员会与竞选团队之间的协调违反联邦法律,埃利亚斯律所扮演了什么角色。

The Times story cites Federal Election Commission records showing that a pro-Peltola super PAC paid money to a firm co-owned by the Democratic operative who worked with the Peltola team to recruit the decoy. In my podcast below, Karl Rove asks what role the Elias firm was playing, given that coordination between PACs and campaigns is a violation of federal law.

答案或许是,这家律所向来不择手段——有时站到法官的对立面,甚至招致制裁。这意味着民主党人对他求之若渴,因为他们如今越来越多地转向法庭来赢得政治斗争。尽管2023年与民主党全国委员会分道扬镳,埃利亚斯还是在2024年被卡玛拉·哈里斯的竞选团队聘用,以备选举相关诉讼之需。如今,除了在民主党参议院竞选委员会和佩尔托拉竞选团队的工作之外,埃利亚斯最近还夸口说自己“目前正在42个州外加华盛顿特区打92起投票和选举官司”。

The answer might be that the firm has always played for keeps—at times landing on the wrong side of judges, even drawing sanctions. That means Democrats just can’t get enough of him, now that they are turning more to the courtroom to win political battles. Despite the split with the DNC in 2023, Elias was retained by Kamala Harris’s campaign in 2024 in case of election-related litigation. Now, in addition to his work at the DSCC and Peltola campaign, Elias recently bragged that he is “currently litigating 92 voting and election cases in 42 states plus D.C.”

《政治报》报道称,埃利亚斯是收到司法部信函的20多人之一,信中告知他们“可能成为与阿拉斯加参议院竞选有关的刑事调查目标”。今年夏天,阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德(他昨晚赢得了密歇根州参议院竞选)描述了他将如何把非进步派人士从民主党中清除出去。“理想情况下,你把一个怪物挑上尖桩,然后其他人就都明白了,突然间听起来就大不一样了,”他在谈到自己赶走宾夕法尼亚州参议员约翰·费特曼的目标时说道。他甚至不必等到费特曼2028年的初选;他的党已经把尖桩递给了众议员海莉·史蒂文斯。

Politico reports Elias is among more than 20 people who received letters from the Justice Department informing them that “they could be targets of a criminal investigation related to the Alaska Senate race.”This summer, Abdul El-Sayed (who won Michigan’s Senate race last night) described how he’d go about excising nonprogressives from the Democratic Party. “Ideally you put one ogre on a pike, and then everyone else gets the message, and all of a sudden starts to sound a lot different,” he said of his goal of ousting Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman. He didn’t even have to wait for Fetterman’s 2028 primary; his party is already giving Rep. Haley Stevens the pike.

周日早上,史蒂文斯出人意料地背书了埃尔-赛义德的对手、共和党人迈克·罗杰斯,震惊了政坛。史蒂文斯于上午8点30分发布了她的背书。《国会山报》的社论专栏指出,参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默迅速予以谴责,称这一背书是“卑鄙的背叛”。到上午9点45分,密歇根州民主党主席柯蒂斯·赫特尔已经发文称,史蒂文斯不再是“密歇根民主党的成员,将来也不会是”。

Stevens shocked the political world on Sunday morning by endorsing El-Sayed’s opponent, Republican Mike Rogers. Stevens posted her endorsement at 8:30 a.m. Our editorial columns noted the quick condemnation by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who described the endorsement as a “despicable betrayal.”By 9:45 am, Curtis Hertel, head of the Michigan state party, had already posted that Stevens was no longer a “member of the Michigan Democratic Party, nor will she be in the future.”

前议长南希·佩洛西称这一背书“令人发指”,社会主义者、参议员伯尼·桑德斯则表示她的幕僚“愤而辞职是正确的”。就连密歇根州民主党参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金也谴责了史蒂文斯——两年前,斯洛特金曾称赞利兹·切尼对她的背书,称这证明这位前共和党国会议员只是在乎让“正直体面的普通人”担任公职。其他民主党人纷纷附和,暗示史蒂文斯“情绪不稳定”。

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi labeled the endorsement “horrific,” and socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders said her staff was “right to resign in disgust.”Even Michigan’s Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin—who two years ago praised Liz Cheney’s endorsement of her as proof the former GOP congresswoman simply cared about having “decent, normal people of integrity in office”—condemned Stevens. Other Democrats piled on to suggest Stevens was “unstable.”

更离奇的批评来自资深民主党策略师詹姆斯·卡维尔,他拿出他那套“愤怒的卡津人”做派,在一段视频中对着史蒂文斯大发雷霆,称共和党人会像丢弃“用过的避孕套”一样抛弃她,还补充说:“民主党人甚至觉得你连用过的避孕套都不如,但你差不多就是这个水平。”正是这位卡维尔,今年夏天曾表示,如果像哈桑·皮克这样的左翼网红兼埃尔-赛义德代理人帮助领导民主党,他就会退出民主党:“我无意与那个人同处一个政党。”皮克对埃尔-赛义德的影响力,正是史蒂文斯改变背书的原因之一。

An even more bizarre bit of criticism came from long-time Democratic strategist James Carville, who did his ragin’ Cajun thing, ranting at Stevens in a video that Republicans would discard her like “a used condom” and adding: “The Democrats don’t even think you’re worth a used condom, but that’s about where you are.”This is the same Carville who this summer said that he’d leave the Democratic Party if the likes of Hasan Piker—a left-wing influencer and El-Sayed surrogate—was helping lead it: “I have no intention of ever being in the same political party with that guy.”Piker’s influence with El-Sayed was among the reasons Stevens changed endorsements.

在这些声明中,民主党人始终没有提及史蒂文斯改变 endorsement 的原因——埃勒-赛义德对以色列和支持该国的美国犹太人的恶劣态度,以及她担心自己的政党正在失去一个长期支持群体。这在一定程度上说明了新进步派激进主义的特点。民主党人多少次告诫共和党人应当把“国家”置于特朗普之上?对史蒂文斯的对待(她曾两次投票弹劾特朗普)进一步证明,进步派意图排挤任何不严格循规蹈矩的人。这不仅仅是彭博社平淡地称之为“恩怨”那么简单。

Nowhere in any of these statements did Democrats address the reason Stevens switched her endorsement—El-Sayed’s nasty attitude toward Israel and American Jews who support the country, and her worry her party is losing a longtime constituency. Which says something about the new progressive militancy. How many times have Democrats lectured Republicans that they ought to put “country” over Trump? The treatment of Stevens (who voted twice to impeach Trump) is more proof that progressives are intent on blackballing anyone who doesn’t keep his toes precisely on the line. This is more than a “feud,” as Bloomberg blandly calls it.

前参议员乔·曼钦和基尔斯滕·西内马在党内将他们赶走之前就离开了参议院。史蒂文斯将于明年1月结束国会生涯。但这一事件对有意竞选民主党总统候选人的潜在“温和派”人选来说是个不祥之兆——前芝加哥市长拉姆·伊曼纽尔、宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗、肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔。很难想象埃勒-赛义德和派克所在的政党会对他们的主张有任何容忍。

Former Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema left the Senate before their party could run them out. Stevens will be finished with Congress in January. But the episode bodes ill for would-be “moderate” candidates eyeing a Democratic presidential run—former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. It’s hard to think the party of El-Sayed and Piker will have any tolerance for their message.

在《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院对七场关键参议院竞选的最后一轮民调中,迟做决定的选民(那些在最后一个月才做出选择的选民)偏向共和党的百分点差距。在已经决出结果的六场竞选中,这都不足以改变结果。

Point margin by which late-deciding voters (those who chose in the last month) favored Republicans in a final set of New York Times/Siena polls of seven key Senate races. It wasn’t enough in any of the six that have been decided.

告诉盖洛普自己在今年中期选举中“比平时更有投票热情”的登记选民比例。该机构表示,自1994年以来,只有一次出现过更高的水平——2018年,当时69%的人表示比平时更有热情。猜猜哪一方更有热情?

Share of registered voters who told Gallup they were “more enthusiastic about voting than usual” in this year’s midterms. The outlet says that it has only once since 1994 found a higher level—2018, when 69% reported higher enthusiasm than usual. Any guesses as to which side was more enthusiastic?

据《Punchbowl》报道,议长迈克·约翰逊在“仅过去一个月内,就在24个州的90多场活动中”为其站台助选的候选人和现任议员人数。这远不足以保住多数党地位。

Number of candidates and incumbents Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned with “at more than 90 events across 24 states in the last month alone,” says Punchbowl. It didn’t come close to saving the majority.

据Cal Matters报道,数百万美元被用于反对加州拟议的财富税(第40号提案),以及支持两项相互竞争的措施(第41号和第42号提案)。目前,对财富税的“反对”票以55比44领先,已统计60%的选票。这至少是周二晚上的一个好消息。

Millions of dollars spent to oppose California’s proposed wealth tax (Proposition 40), as well as to support two competing measures (Props 41 and 42), reports Cal Matters. The “no” votes to the wealth tax are currently leading 55-44, with 60% of the votes in. That would be at least one piece of good news from Tuesday night.

“某些地方会出现排长队投票的情况。取决于他们所在的位置,CNN会报道这些队伍。”——公共利益法律基金会律师克里斯蒂安·亚当斯在PJ Media上撰文,谈及在一个不确定的选举日必定会发生的五件事。在这次情况下,这些队伍似乎确实都有利于民主党。

“Somewhere there will be long lines to vote. Depending on where they are, CNN will cover them.” —Public Interest Legal Foundation lawyer Christian Adams, writing in PJ Media about five things that were certain to happen on an uncertain Election Day. In this case, the lines did all seem to favor Democrats.

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