美国股市周三收盘上涨，此前盘中一度下跌，投资者评估中期选举结果后重新调整了投资策略。摩根大通交易台预计科技股将反弹，市场上涨行情将超越少数巨型科技股的范畴。
US stocks climbed Wednesday after reversing earlier losses as investors assessed the outcome of the midterm elections, with JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk expecting technology stocks to rebound and a market rally to broaden beyond a narrow group of megacap winners.
摩根大通美国市场情报团队保持战术看多立场，认为近期科技股抛售可能为短期反弹创造机会，尽管投资者对人工智能赢家与输家变得更加挑剔。
The bank’s US Market Intelligence team remains tactically bullish, arguing that the recent selloff in technology shares may create an opportunity for a near-term recovery, even as investors become more selective about artificial intelligence winners and losers.
该团队由Andrew Tyler领导，在周三致客户的报告中写道：“我们不会放弃科技交易，而是押注战术性反弹。”团队同时偏好将科技股和周期性股票组合起来的杠铃策略，其中周期性股票权重更大。
“We would not abandon the Tech trade and would play for a tactical rebound,” the team led by Andrew Tyler wrote in a Wednesday note, adding that they favor a barbell strategy combining tech and cyclical shares, with a heavier weight on cyclicals.
投资者一直在权衡民主党控制国会对科技板块的影响，尤其是人工智能基础设施支出前景。得克萨斯州当选州长Gina Hinojosa提议在制定额外法规之前立即暂停新建数据中心建设，这一提案引发市场恐慌，导致科技股隔夜大幅抛售。纳斯达克100指数上涨1.8%。
Investors have been weighing the implications of Democratic control of Congress for the tech sector, particularly the outlook for AI infrastructure spending. Concerns about Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa’s proposal for an immediate moratorium on new data center construction until additional regulations are established helped fuel an overnight selloff. The tech heavy Nasdaq 100 Index advanced 1.8%.
摩根大通交易台表示，对得克萨斯州政策可能发生转变的担忧可能被夸大了，因为数据中心可以在其他各州建设，新规则也不会完全阻止建设。
JPMorgan’s trading desk said concerns about a potential shift in Texas policy may be overstated, given the number of other states where data centers could be built, noting that new rules wouldn’t completely halt construction.
不过，该团队并未给予人工智能交易绿灯。投资者在增加敞口之前需要等待多个信号，包括仓位出清、超大规模云服务商资本支出计划确认、半导体和存储公司业绩向好以及资本市场活动改善。
Still, the team stopped short of giving the AI trade a green light. Investors have been looking for several signals before increasing exposure again, including a washout in positioning, confirmation of hyperscaler capital spending plans, positive earnings from semiconductor and memory companies, and improved capital-markets activity.
巴克莱银行也在周三早上发出警告称，选举结果不会为股票年底前继续上涨扫清道路。
Barclays also warned Wednesday morning that the election outcome will not clear the way for stocks to rally through the rest of the year.
除科技板块外，投资者还在关注民主党是否会寻求强制结束与伊朗的冲突。一旦新国会于1月就职，议员们可能会采取行动撤回资金，或寻求撤回在未经国会批准的情况下部署在持续超过90天的冲突中的部队。该银行表示，市场似乎越来越将达成协议的可能性计入定价。
Beyond tech, investors are watching whether Democrats will seek to force an end to the conflict with Iran. Once the new Congress takes office in January, lawmakers could move to withdraw funding or seek to recall troops deployed in a conflict lasting more than 90 days without congressional approval. Markets appear to be increasingly pricing in the possibility of a deal, according to the bank.
历史规律提供了另一个乐观的理由。该报告引用摩根大通的克雷格·科恩（Craig Cohen）的话称，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数在每次中期选举后的下一年都有所上涨，平均涨幅约为15%。
Historical patterns provide another reason for optimism. The S&P 500 Index has risen the year after every midterm election since 1950, with an average gain of about 15%, the note said citing JPMorgan’s Craig Cohen.
该银行的市场情报团队补充称，该指数在中期选举后的三个月内历史上平均上涨5.4%，六个月上涨11.4%，九个月上涨12.5%。
The bank’s Market Intelligence team added that the index has historically gained an average of 5.4% in the three months following midterm elections, 11.4% over six months, 12.5% over nine months.
该团队认为涨幅将扩大到各个板块，但能源板块的涨幅较小，科技板块的下跌空间也较小。消费和金融股是其偏好的周期性板块之一，尤其是如果收益率曲线继续陡峭化的话。
The team sees gains broadening across sectors, but with less appreciation in energy and less downside in tech. Consumer and financial stocks are among its preferred cyclical sectors, particularly if the yield curve continues to steepen.