民主党在周二的选举中取得了历史性胜利，席卷了国会两院，并在共和党深厚的领地中取得了进展。
Democrats had a historic night Tuesday, sweeping both chambers of Congress and making gains deep into Republican territory.
该党在几乎所有预期之地获胜，并在许多人认为没有机会的地方取得了胜利。到周三下午，Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）已预测27名众议院现任议员将失去席位，另外还有八名议员在计票中落后且未被预测。
The party won nearly everywhere they were expected to and places people never thought they had a chance. As of Wednesday afternoon, 27 House incumbents had been projected to lose their seats by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), and eight more were trailing in the count with no projection.
北卡罗来纳州是给共和党带来最大震惊和失败的州，该州已失去五个席位——其中一个是空缺席位——并在另一个席位上落后。
No state was a greater source of shock and defeat for Republicans than North Carolina, where the party has already lost five seats — one of them open — and trails in another.
北卡罗来纳州第13选区的众议员布拉德·诺特（Brad Knott）输给了民主党人保罗·巴林格（Paul Barringer）。在第14选区，众议员蒂姆·摩尔（Tim Moore）输给了民主党人拉凯莎·沃马克（LaKesha Womack）。民主党还翻盘了第6选区，众议员阿迪森·麦克道威尔（Addison McDowell）输给了民主党人西里尔·杰斐逊（Cyril Jefferson）。
Rep. Brad Knott lost to Democrat Paul Barringer in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District. In the 14th Congressional District, Rep. Tim Moore lost to Democrat LaKesha Womack. Democrats flipped the 6th Congressional District as well, with Rep. Addison McDowell losing to Democrat Cyril Jefferson.
在第9选区，国家共和党众议员委员会主席理查德·哈德森（Richard Hudson）输给了民主党人理查德·奥杰达（Richard Ojeda）。每一次失败的差距都在2个百分点左右。
And in the 9th Congressional District, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Rep. Richard Hudson, lost to Democrat Richard Ojeda. Each defeat was by 2 points or just over that.
在这四场竞选中，DDHQ的选前预测显示民主党获胜的概率不到25%。
In all four of those races, Democrats had less than a 25 percent chance of winning in DDHQ’s preelection forecast.
在第5选区，众议员弗吉尼亚·福克斯（Virginia Foxx）仅以99票之差落后于民主党人查尔斯·哈伯德（Charles Hubbard）。DDHQ尚未预测该竞选的胜者。宾夕法尼亚州的共和党人也遭遇了惨败，四名现任议员被击败。
In the 5th Congressional District, Rep. Virginia Foxx trails by just 99 votes to Democrat Charles Hubbard. DDHQ has not projected a winner in that race. Pennsylvania Republicans also had a rough go of it as four incumbents were defeated.
众议员瑞安·麦肯齐（Ryan Mackenzie）在第7选区以13个百分点的差距输给了民主党人罗伯特·布鲁克斯（Robert Brooks）。在第7选区北部，民主党人佩奇·科格尼蒂（Paige Cognetti）以不到9个百分点的差距击败了第8选区的众议员罗布·布雷斯纳汉（Rob Bresnahan）。麦肯齐和布雷斯纳汉都在2024年赢得了席位。
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie lost to Democrat Robert Brooks in the 7th Congressional District by a 13-point margin. Just north of the 7th, Democrat Paige Cognetti defeated 8th District Rep. Rob Bresnahan by just under 9 points. Both Mackenzie and Bresnahan won their seats in 2024.
两位此前曾抵御过多轮选举浪潮的现任议员同样落败。宾夕法尼亚州第1国会选区的温和派共和党众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克（Brian Fitzpatrick）不敌民主党人鲍勃·哈维（Bob Harvie）；菲茨帕特里克有时会公开与特朗普意见相左。在哈里斯堡地区，曾任自由核心小组主席、2020年投票反对认证大选结果的共和党众议员斯科特·佩里（Scott Perry）以10个百分点的差距败给民主党人贾内尔·斯泰尔森（Janelle Stelson）。
Two incumbents who have resisted waves before also fell to defeat. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate member who sometimes publicly disagrees with Trump, lost to Democrat Bob Harvie in the 1st Congressional District. And in the Harrisburg area, Rep. Scott Perry — a former Freedom Caucus chairman who voted not to certify the election in 2020 — lost to Democrat Janelle Stelson by a 10-point margin.
就在特拉华河对岸的新泽西州，也有两名现任议员落败。共和党众议员汤姆·基恩（Tom Kean Jr.）因不明原因缺席众议院工作数月，最终以近16个百分点的劣势不敌民主党人丽贝卡·贝内特（Rebecca Bennett）。基恩最终透露自己正与抑郁症作斗争。在南新泽西，共和党众议员杰夫·范德鲁（Jeff Van Drew）在一场大冷门中败给民主党人扎克·马洛克（Zack Mullock）。范德鲁最初于2018年以民主党人身份赢下一个共和党把持的席位，但于2019年转投共和党。
Just across the Delaware River, two incumbents lost in New Jersey. Rep. Tom Kean Jr., a Republican who was absent from the House for months without explanation, lost to Democrat Rebecca Bennett by nearly 16 points. Kean ultimately revealed he was struggling with depression. And in South Jersey, Rep. Jeff Van Drew was defeated by Democrat Zack Mullock in a big upset. Van Drew initially flipped a GOP-held seat in 2018 as a Democrat but switched parties in 2019.
在纽约州哈德逊河谷地区，第17国会选区的共和党众议员迈克·劳勒（Mike Lawler）落后民主党人凯特·康利（Cait Conley），不过决策台总部（DDHQ）尚未宣布该选区结果。该选区一关键县份因选票扫描问题导致周二计票延误。尽管如此，劳勒已认输。
In New York’s Hudson Valley, Rep. Mike Lawler trails Democrat Cait Conley in the 17th Congressional District, though DDHQ has not called the race. A ballot scanning issue in a key county in the district delayed counting Tuesday. Lawler, though, has conceded.
在弗吉尼亚州，第2国会选区的共和党众议员珍·基根斯（Jen Kiggans）以近9个百分点的差距不敌前众议员伊莱恩·卢里亚（Elaine Luria）。基根斯在2022年曾击败卢里亚，但因伊朗战争在军事主导的该选区面临逆风。在第1国会选区，民主党人香农·泰勒（Shannon Taylor）以略超1个百分点的优势击败共和党众议员罗布·维特曼（Rob Wittman）。
In Virginia, Rep. Jen Kiggans lost to former Rep. Elaine Luria by nearly 9 points in the 2nd Congressional District. Kiggans beat Luria back in 2022 but faced headwinds due to the Iran war in the military-dominated district. And in the 1st Congressional District, Democrat Shannon Taylor defeated Rep. Rob Wittman by just over 1 point.
俄亥俄州民主党人度过了一个强势的夜晚，赢下备受瞩目的全州性选举，并击败了三名众议院现任议员。第7国会选区的共和党众议员马克斯·米勒（Max Miller）以近10个百分点的劣势败给民主党人布赖恩·波因德克斯特（Brian Poindexter）。米勒的竞选因针对其女儿和前妻的家暴指控而陷入瘫痪，而他的前妻恰好是俄亥俄州共和党联邦参议员伯尼·莫雷诺（Bernie Moreno）的女儿。
Democrats in Ohio had a strong night, winning the marquee statewide races and defeating three House incumbents. Rep. Max Miller lost to Democrat Brian Poindexter in the 7th Congressional District by nearly 10 points. Miller’s campaign was blown up by allegations of domestic abuse against his daughter and ex-wife, who happens to be the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno (R).
温和派众议员迈克·特纳在俄亥俄州第10国会选区以不到2个百分点的差距败给民主党人克里斯蒂娜·尼克博克。在相邻的第15国会选区，众议员迈克·凯里以超过6个百分点的差距败给民主党人唐·伦纳德。
Rep. Mike Turner, a moderate congressman in the 10th Congressional District, lost to Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker by just under 2 points. In the neighboring 15th Congressional District, Rep. Mike Carey lost to Democrat Don Leonard by more than 6 points.
就在北边的密歇根州，一名共和党现任议员落败，另一名则落后。在第7国会选区，众议员汤姆·巴雷特以刚刚超过3个百分点的差距在连任竞选中败给民主党人威廉·劳伦斯。在第4国会选区，众议员比尔·海岑加以略低于2个百分点的差距落后于民主党人肖恩·麦坎，但DDHQ尚未预测胜者。
Just north in Michigan, one Republican incumbent was defeated and another one trails. Rep. Tom Barrett lost reelection to Democrat William Lawrence in the 7th Congressional District by just over 3 points. In the 4th Congressional District, Rep. Bill Huizenga trails Democrat Sean McCann by a little under 2 points, but DDHQ has not yet projected a winner.
威斯康星州民主党人在该州第1和第3国会选区击败了两名共和党现任议员。在第1选区，众议员德里克·范奥登以刚刚超过6个百分点的差距败给民主党人丽贝卡·库克。众议员布莱恩·斯泰尔在第1选区以近4个百分点的差距败给民主党人米切尔·伯曼。
Wisconsin Democrats defeated two GOP incumbents, in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts. In the 1st, Rep. Derrick Van Orden lost to Democrat Rebecca Cooke by just over 6 points. Rep. Bryan Steil lost to Democrat Mitchell Berman in the 1st district by nearly 4 points.
爱荷华州有两名共和党现任议员落败：第1国会选区的玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯和第3国会选区的扎克·纳恩。米勒-米克斯曾在2020年仅以6票优势当选国会议员，这是她第三次与民主党人克里斯蒂娜·博汉纳交锋，此次以超过9个百分点的差距落败。纳恩以7个百分点的差距败给民主党人莎拉·加里奥特。
Two Republican incumbents lost in Iowa: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st Congressional District, and Rep. Zach Nunn in the 3rd Congressional District. Miller-Meeks, who won election to Congress by just six votes in 2020, lost to Democrat Christina Bohannan — their third time facing each other — by more than 9 points. Nunn lost to Democrat Sarah Garriott by 7 points.
在密苏里州第2国会选区，众议员安·瓦格纳以近5个百分点的差距败给民主党人弗雷德·韦尔曼。密苏里州共和党人曾试图重绘选区地图，但在最后关头因法院裁决而被叫停，使第2选区重新回到地图上。
In Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Ann Wagner lost to Democrat Fred Wellman by nearly five points. Missouri Republicans attempted to redraw the maps, but were stopped last minute from doing so by a court decision, putting the 2nd district back on the map.
印第安纳波利斯郊区的第5国会选区同样易主，众议员维多利亚·斯帕茨以超过3个百分点的差距败给民主党人JD·福特。
The suburban Indianapolis 5th Congressional District changed hands as well, with Rep. Victoria Spartz losing to Democrat JD Ford by more than three points.
在德克萨斯州南部，众议员莫尼卡·德拉克鲁兹在该州第15国会选区以超过22个百分点的差距败给民主党人博比·普利多。特朗普在2024年曾在该选区以近20个百分点的优势获胜，标志着这个拉美裔占绝大多数的选区出现了向民主党的巨大转向。
In South Texas, Rep. Monica De La Cruz lost to Democrat Bobby Pulido by more than 22 points in the state’s 15th Congressional District. Trump won the 15th by nearly 20 points in 2024, marking a huge shift to the Democrats in the heavily Latino district.
在亚利桑那州，民主党击败了一名共和党现任议员，众议员胡安·西斯科马尼在国会第6选区败给民主党人乔安娜·门多萨。众议员伊莱·克兰在国会第2选区也落后于民主党人乔纳森·内兹，尽管DDHQ尚未宣布该选区结果。
In Arizona, Democrats defeated one GOP incumbent with Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s loss to Democrat Joanna Mendoza in the 6th Congressional District. Rep. Eli Crane also trails Democrat Jonathan Nez in the 2nd Congressional District, though DDHQ has not called the race.
加利福尼亚州民主党利用重新划分的选区地图成功击败了两名现任议员，这是对得克萨斯州共和党通过的杰利蝾螈式划区的回应。在国会第1选区，众议员詹姆斯·加拉格尔败给民主党人迈克·麦奎尔；在国会第22选区，众议员大卫·瓦拉达奥败给民主党人兰迪·维莱加斯。
California Democrats successfully defeated two incumbents using their redrawn map, a response to a gerrymander passed by Texas Republicans. In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. James Gallagher lost to Democrat Mike McGuire, and in the 22nd Congressional District, Rep. David Valadao lost to Democrat Randy Villegas.
科罗拉多州目前仅有一名现任议员落败，但这一数字有可能增加。众议员盖布·埃文斯在国会第8选区竞选连任失败，败给民主党人曼尼·鲁蒂内尔；但众议员劳伦·博伯特和杰夫·克兰克分别在国会第4和第5选区落后于其民主党挑战者。博伯特在2022年曾在国会第3选区险些落败，随后转战被认为对她更有利的第4选区。
Only one incumbent has lost so far in Colorado, but that number has the potential to grow. Rep. Gabe Evans lost reelection to Democrat Manny Rutinel in the 8th Congressional District, but Reps. Lauren Boebert and Jeff Crank both trail their Democratic challengers in the 4th and 5th Congressional Districts, respectively. Boebert nearly lost in the 3rd Congressional District in 2022, and moved to the 4th, thought to be a safer district for her to run in.
一些潜在的冷门正在酝酿——但DDHQ尚未宣布胜者——出现在明尼苏达州和田纳西州。在明尼苏达州国会第1选区，众议员布拉德·芬斯塔德落后其民主党对手杰克·约翰逊不到500票。在田纳西州国会第4选区，众议员斯科特·德贾莱斯落后民主党人维多利亚·布罗德里克不到300票，而特朗普在2024年曾在该选区以近25个百分点的优势获胜。DDHQ的赛前预测给布罗德里克的获胜几率仅为3%。
Some potential upsets brewing — but where DDHQ has not yet called a winner — come in Minnesota and Tennessee. In Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Brad Finstad trails his Democratic opponent, Jake Johnson, by less than 500 votes. And in Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District, Rep. Scott DesJarlais trails Democrat Victoria Broderick by fewer than 300 votes in a district Trump won by nearly 25 points in 2024. DDHQ’s preelection forecast gave Broderick just a 3 percent chance of winning.
DDHQ在对某场竞选的把握超过99%时才会做出预测。迟到的邮寄选票或临时选票可能会改变最胶着竞选的最终差距。
DDHQ makes a projection in a race when it has greater than 99 percent certainty of the call. Late arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots could shift the final margins in the closest races.