民调确实未能捕捉到某一点：民主党浪潮的规模。在周二大选前的几天里，预测者们发出了惯例性的警告，称民调可能存在系统性误差。而确实，民调未能捕捉到某一点：民主党浪潮的规模。
Polls did fail to capture something: the scale of the Democratic wave. In the days leading up to Tuesday’s election, prognosticators issued the obligatory warning that polls could be subject to systematic error. And indeed, polls did fail to capture something: the scale of the Democratic wave.
民主党不仅赢得了众议院（正如预期），还赢得了参议院（这似乎是可能的），而且20年来首次赢得了多数州长职位。他们横扫了《库克政治报告》评为“势均力敌”的六个参议院席位中的至少五个（阿拉斯加仍在计票中），甚至在南卡罗来纳州赢得了一个自1964年斯特罗姆·瑟蒙德转投共和党以来一直由共和党把持的席位。
Not only did Democrats win the House (as expected), and the Senate (as seemed possible), but they secured a majority of governorships for the first time in 20 years. They swept at least five of the six Senate seats rated as toss-ups by The Cook Political Report (with votes still being counted in Alaska), and even picked off a seat in South Carolina that had been in Republican hands since Strom Thurmond switched parties in 1964.
自乔治·W·布什灾难性的第二个任期末期以来，从未出现过这种规模的共和党崩盘，也从未出现过民主党拥有如此清晰的执政机遇。这些结果推翻了自唐纳德·特朗普十年前亲自打破规则以来主导美国政治的许多传统认知。
Not since the waning days of George W. Bush’s disastrous second term has there been a Republican collapse of this scale, nor such a clear set of opportunities to lead for the Democratic Party. The results have upended much of the conventional wisdom that has dominated American politics since Donald Trump himself tore up the rulebook a decade ago.
虽然结果背后的含义必将在下一次大选前持续引发辩论，但这是一个足够具有决定性的夜晚，使得几个故事几乎立即清晰浮现。
While the meaning behind the results will surely be debated through the next election, it was a decisive enough evening for a few stories to come into focus almost immediately.
民主党能够——也应该——在各地竞争。该党迅速在五个州——爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、俄亥俄州、得克萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州——赢得了参议院席位，而唐纳德·特朗普在2024年曾在这些州以两位数优势获胜。但或许更引人注目的是民主党意外逼近胜利的州份：在日益深红的佛罗里达州，民主社会主义者安吉·尼克松仅以三个百分点之差落败，未能赢得参议院席位。
Democrats can—and should—compete everywhere. The party swiftly picked up Senate seats in five states—Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas, and South Carolina—where Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. But perhaps more remarkable were the states where Democrats came unexpectedly close: In increasingly ruby-red Florida, democratic socialist Angie Nixon fell short of winning a Senate seat by just three points.
在高度两极分化的路易斯安那州，杰米·戴维斯的差距甚至更小——截至发稿时，斯科特·科隆在密西西比州的竞选仍过于胶着，难以判定胜负。这三位均为黑人候选人，尽管获得全国党部有限的投入，却取得了历史性成绩。尽管民主党在深红地区度过了成功的一晚，但若在被视为无望的竞选中投入更多资源，该党或许本可逼近超级多数席位。
Even closer was Jamie Davis in hyper-polarized Louisiana—and, as of writing, Scott Colom’s race in Mississippi is still too close to call. All three were Black candidates who put up historic results despite limited investment from the national party. As successful a night as the party had in deep-red territory, Democrats may have approached a supermajority with a little more investment in races dismissed as unreachable.
民主党的代际更迭已成现实，且带有民粹主义色彩。七个关键摇摆州选出了50岁以下的民主党参议员，分别是佩吉·弗拉纳根（47岁）、乔什·图雷克（47岁）、克里斯·帕帕斯（46岁）、安妮·安德鲁斯（46岁）、阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（42岁）、乔恩·奥索夫（39岁）和詹姆斯·塔拉里科（37岁）。不仅候选人本身面貌一新，他们的理念也是如此。
The generational shift in the Democratic Party is here, and it’s populist. Seven battleground states elected Democratic senators under the age of 50, in Peggy Flanagan (47), Josh Turek (47), Chris Pappas (46), Annie Andrews (46), Abdul El-Sayed (42), Jon Ossoff (39), and James Talarico (37). And it’s not just the candidates themselves that are fresh and new; it’s their ideas.
在科罗拉多州第一国会选区，29岁的民主社会主义者梅拉特·基罗斯成为首位当选国会议员的Z世代女性。而在蒙大拿州，工会领袖、前野地消防员萨姆·福斯塔格看来将赢得蒙大拿州第一国会选区（MT-1）席位。这与两年前民主党寄望于乔·拜登的精力与活力来激发青年选民形成鲜明对比。人才梯队的深厚并非偶然：这是由“Run for Something”等组织培育的成果，该组织不仅在周二斩获近百场地方胜利（且仍在增加），还从近十年前开始支持塔拉里科等候选人，为全州范围的胜利播下了种子。
In Colorado’s First Congressional District, 29-year-old democratic socialist Melat Kiros became the first woman from Generation Z elected to Congress. And in Montana, it looks like Sam Forstag, a union leader and former wildland firefighter, will flip MT-1. It’s a far cry from the Democratic Party that, two years ago, hoped to invigorate the youth vote with the vim and vigor of Joe Biden. And the depth of the bench is no accident: It was cultivated by organizations like Run for Something, which not only notched nearly a hundred local victories and counting Tuesday but planted the seeds for statewide wins by backing candidates like Talarico starting nearly a decade ago.
共和党的选区划分伎俩适得其反。在得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州、北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州——这四个州都在本届任期中期重新划分选区地图，以边缘化民主党选民——民主党守住了本预计会失去的席位，甚至在某些情况下还赢得了席位。此外，在对剥夺选举权的又一打击中，最高法院削弱《投票权法案》后，黑人选民成群结队地前去投票。除其他胜利外，他们帮助选出了美国历史上首位黑人女性州长。尽管面临一切困难，选民依然在选择他们的政治家；而非政治家选择选民。
The GOP’s gerrymandering gambit backfired. In Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio—all of which redrew their maps mid-decade to marginalize Democratic voters—Democrats held on to seats they were projected to lose, and in some cases even picked up seats. What’s more, in another blow for disenfranchisement, Black voters showed up in droves in the wake of the Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act. Among other victories, they helped elect the first Black woman governor in American history. In spite of everything, voters continue to choose their politicians; not the other way around.
美国人确实关心外交政策。特朗普总统在选举日向选民发出了一个令人惊讶的最后呼吁，承诺暂停向以色列提供40亿美元援助——这一承诺存疑——并承认其政府对该国的财政支持“是共和党的一个糟糕谈资”。这是对美国人强烈反对其国际议程的一种承认——而且，随着中期选举后可能对伊朗发动更多打击，这也是对新近掌权的民主党人的一种提醒：选民要求打破外交政策的现状。就在不到20年前，参议员巴拉克·奥巴马发起了一场以反对伊拉克战争为核心的总统竞选；这或许能提供借鉴。
Americans do care about foreign policy. President Trump made a surprising final pitch to voters on Election Day, with a dubious vow to suspend $4 billion in aid to Israel and an admission that his administration’s financial support of the country is “a bad talking point” for Republicans. It was an acknowledgment of Americans’ deep opposition to his international agenda—and, with more strikes on Iran potentially coming after the midterms, it’s also a reminder to newly empowered Democrats that voters are demanding a break with the foreign policy status quo. It was just under 20 years ago that Senator Barack Obama launched a presidential campaign built around his opposition to the Iraq War; that could be instructive.
选民发泄了对人工智能的焦虑。全国范围内，选民对至少40项数据中心相关措施进行了表决，从缅因州到俄亥俄州再到堪萨斯州，社区以压倒性优势投票决定对数据中心建设进行监管和限制。数据中心行业的宠儿达琳·格雷厄姆和臭名昭著的AI立场反复无常者格雷格·阿博特均遭遇挫折。与此同时，大型科技公司已将目光投向未来的总统大选：“我们已经知道2028年总统大选的头号议题，”一位主要行业游说者在备忘录中写道：“人工智能。”
Voters vented their AI agita. Voters weighed in on at least 40 data center measures nationwide, and, overwhelmingly, communities from Maine to Ohio to Kansas voted to regulate and restrict data center construction. Data center industry darling Darline Graham and infamous AI flip-flopper Greg Abbott faltered. Meanwhile, Big Tech already has its eyes on the presidential matchup ahead: “We already know the number-one issue of the 2028 presidential election,” reads a memo by a leading industry lobbyist: “AI.” (One potential candidate—Jon Ossoff—directly addressed those risks in his victory speech.) Money doesn’t change everything.
（一位潜在候选人——乔恩·奥索夫——在胜选演讲中直接回应了这些风险。）金钱并非改变一切。这是美国历史上花费最昂贵的中期选举——没有任何单一捐赠者的捐款超过世界首富埃隆·马斯克，他在家乡得克萨斯州向共和党注入巨资。民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科和吉娜·伊诺霍萨将马斯克试图用金钱买下他们参选席位的行为，作为竞选收官联合集会的核心议题。
This was the most expensive midterm election in US history—and no single donor gave more than the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, who funneled huge sums to Republicans in his home state of Texas. Democratic hopefuls James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa made Musk’s attempts to buy their races a centerpiece of the joint rally that closed their campaigns.
“这将是一个属于人民、为人民的得克萨斯州吗？”伊诺霍萨问道，“还是这是亿万富翁的世界，我们只是生活在这里？”最终，得克萨斯州人选择了人民，而非 plutocrat（寡头/富豪统治者）。
“Is this going to be a Texas that is by and for the people?” asked Hinojosa, “Or this is the billionaires’ world and we just live here?”In the end, Texans picked the people, not the plutocrat.
MAGA 运动可能已走到尽头。选民最关心的许多问题，实质上构成了一场针对特朗普执政表现的公投。他曾承诺绝不发动的中东战争极其不得人心，导致油价、可负担性和国家安全均受挤压。他赤裸裸的利益输送将贫富差距凸显得淋漓尽致，使政治腐败成为选民首要关切之一。而在无数就业岗位和经济健康都系于少数日益缺乏问责的科技巨头一念之间之际，特朗普未能监管 AI，又在公众中引发一阵不满。
MAGA may have reached the end of the line. Many of the issues top of mind for voters amounted to a referendum on Trump’s governance. Gas prices, affordability, and national security have been squeezed by the profoundly unpopular Middle East war he promised he’d never start. His naked self-dealing has thrown the wealth gap into stark relief and made political corruption one of voters’ chief concerns. And with countless jobs and the health of the economy riding on the whims of a few increasingly unaccountable tech companies, Trump’s failure to regulate AI has sounded yet another sour note with the public.
他还亲自挑选了一批灾难性的候选人，让本可赢下的选举白白溜走：贪腐的肯·帕克斯顿、厚颜无耻的维韦克·拉马斯瓦米、资历极浅的达琳·格雷厄姆，不胜枚举。美国人以如此戏剧性的方式剥夺了其党籍在众参两院的多数地位，这或许就是对特朗普——乃至整个 MAGA 运动——的最终审判，而后者将在 2028 年接受大选的检验。
He also handpicked a number of disastrous candidates who fumbled winnable races: the corrupt Ken Paxton, the shameless Vivek Ramaswamy, the grossly underqualified Darline Graham, and on and on. In stripping his party of both the House and Senate in such dramatic fashion, Americans may have just rendered their final verdict on Trump—and the MAGA movement at large will stand trial in 2028.
各党内派系都有庆贺的理由。这种团结能否持久仍待观察。从激进左翼到温和中间，几乎没有任何候选人——无论在选票的何处——在周二表现不佳。派系分歧让位于对唐纳德·特朗普毫不含糊的谴责；一股上涨的蓝色浪潮托起了所有船只。但对于一个依然处于历史性低支持率的民主党而言，即将迎来 13 年来首场特朗普不在选票上的总统大选，艰巨任务在前。
Every party faction had something to celebrate. It remains to be seen if that unity can last. From the insurgent left to the moderate middle, hardly any candidate up or down the ballot underperformed on Tuesday. The factional divides faded away in favor of an unambiguous rebuke of Donald Trump; a rising blue wave lifted all boats. But for a Democratic Party that remains historically unpopular, approaching what will be the first presidential election in 13 years without Trump on the ballot, hard work lies ahead.
正如一位新当选的进步派众议员昨晚深夜发短信告诉我的：“哇哇！我希望哈基姆和查克明白，这股能量有多么反建制、民粹、厌倦现状、渴望变革。”
As one of the new progressive House members texted me late last night, “Wow Wow! I hope Hakeem and Chuck understand how much this is anti-establishment, populist, fed-up energy for change.”
在任何选票被统计之前，罗伯特·赖克就曾表示：“我们必须继续组织、动员、激励身边的每一个人，向国会施压——哪怕是由民主党控制的国会——以保护和巩固我们的民主。”
As Robert Reich said before any votes were counted, “We’re going to have to continue to organize, mobilize, and energize everyone around us to put pressure on Congress—even a Congress controlled by the Democrats—to protect and strengthen our democracy.”