美国民主党夺取美国国会参众两院控制权，给美国总统唐纳德·特朗普造成重大打击——这一结果可能对印度和巴基斯坦都产生影响。对印度而言，特朗普实力削弱可能意味着其关税和移民政策受到更严格的审视，也可能为谈判达成有利的贸易协议提供更多空间。对巴基斯坦而言，这一变化可能使其与特朗普核心圈子推进的加密货币和防务交易受到令人不安的审查。这反过来又帮助巴基斯坦赢得了特朗普的关注。
The Democratic Party's takeover of both chambers of the US Congress has dealt a major blow to US President Donald Trump - a result that is likely to have implications for India as well as Pakistan. For India, a weakened Trump could mean greater scrutiny of his tariff and immigration policies, and possibly more room to negotiate a favourable trade deal. For Pakistan, the change could bring uncomfortable scrutiny into crypto and defence deals it has pursued with Trump's inner circle. This, in turn, has helped Pakistan win Trump's attention.
尽管特朗普将执政至2029年1月，但他将不再能够按照自己的意愿推动立法和推行议程。在总统任期的最后两年，他将面对一个更具敌意的国会。民主党已示意将调查特朗普的外交政策决定及其家族商业利益。
While Trump will be in office till January 2029, he will no longer be able to push through legislation and pursue his agenda as per his will. He will face a more hostile Congress in the final two years of his presidency. The Democrats have already signalled they would investigate Trump's foreign policy decisions as well as his family's business interests.
然而，对印度和巴基斯坦而言，影响可能截然不同。请继续关注我们，我们将解释原因。美国中期选举结果：如何影响印度？遭受惨败后，特朗普将急于取得一项重大外交政策胜利，以向他的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）基本盘展示实力。与印度快速达成贸易协议很可能是他的重要议程。
For India and Pakistan, however, the implications could be quite different. Stay with us, and we will explain why. US MIDTERM RESULTS: HOW IT MAY IMPACT INDIA? Following the drubbing, Trump will be eager for a major foreign policy win to project strength to his MAGA base. A swift trade deal with India is likely to be high on his agenda.
另一方面，印度很可能会将中期选举结果视为推动达成一项有利协议的机会，该协议已陷入僵局数月。事实上，印度一直坚持等到获得保证，确保自己将得到比中国和越南等竞争对手更优惠的关税条件。
India, on the other hand, will likely see the midterm result as an opportunity to push through a favourable deal, which has been deadlocked for months. India, in fact, has been holding out until it receives an assurance that it will secure better tariff terms than its competitors like China and Vietnam.
另外，特朗普政府目前还在根据《贸易法》第301条对印度和其他国家进行调查，以确定它们是否利用战略性过剩产能损害美国经济。这些问题已成为达成贸易协议的绊脚石。
Separately, the Trump administration is also currently investigating India and other countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act to determine whether they are using strategic excess manufacturing capacity to hurt the US economy. These issues have become a stumbling block in securing a trade deal.
如今，特朗普实力受挫可能会给印度谈判代表一些喘息空间，他们可能会感到急于达成协议的压力有所减轻。
Now, a weakened Trump might give Indian negotiators some breathing room, and they may feel less pressure to rush into an agreement.
然而，另一方面，这并不一定会让加强关系之路变得更容易。别误会。特朗普可以继续动用其行政权力征收关税。由民主党控制的国会无法自动推翻这些决定。它能做的是审视特朗普的关税如何影响美国企业和消费者，从而增加对政府纠正方向的压力。尽管莫迪与特朗普之间私人关系良好，但印美关系在贸易和关税问题上一直动荡不安。
However, on the flip side, it would not necessarily make the road to stronger ties any easier. Make no mistake. Trump can continue to wield his executive powers to impose tariffs. A Democrat-controlled Congress cannot automatically undo these decisions. What it can do is examine how Trump's tariffs might be affecting American businesses and consumers, increasing pressure on the administration to course correct. Despite the personal rapport between Modi and Trump, India-US ties have been rocky over trade and tariffsH-1B VISAS: CAN INDIA EXPECT SOME RELIEF?
H-1B签证：印度能否期待一些缓解？权力平衡的变化可能对印度产生影响的另一个领域是移民。特朗普对熟练外籍工人的打击，特别是H-1B签证计划，给依赖他们的印度专业人士和美国科技公司带来了不确定性。该政府不仅对H-1B签证征收了高达10万美元的费用，还指示联邦机构审查裁员美国工人的公司提交的H-1B签证申请。
Another area where the change in the balance of power could matter to India is immigration. Trump's crackdown on skilled foreign workers, particularly the H-1B visa program, has caused uncertainty for Indian professionals and American technology companies that depend on them. The administration has not only imposed a stiff USD 1,00,000 fee for H-1B visas, but also directed federal agencies to scrutinise H-1B visa applications from companies laying off American workers.
这两项举措间接影响了印度技术工人，他们主导着H-1B签证计划。事实上，每四个获批的H-1B签证中，约有三个被印度国民拿下，使他们成为美国科技部门的中坚力量。几位民主党议员抨击了特朗普的H-1B举措。随着民主党即将控制国会，对限制熟练移民的经济后果的审查可能会加强，尤其是对美国科技公司而言。虽然短期内可能没有缓解，但从长远来看，这可能对印度技术工人是个好消息。
Both the moves have indirectly impacted Indian techies, who dominate the H-1B visa program. In fact, around three out of every four approved H-1B visas are cornered by Indian nationals, making them the backbone of America's tech sector. Several Democratic lawmakers have slammed Trump's H-1B moves. With Democrats now set to control Congress, there is likely to be increased scrutiny of the economic consequences of restricting skilled immigration, particularly for US tech firms. While there may be no short-term relief, this may spell good news for Indian techies in the longer run.
然而，对印度来说，情况未必全然乐观。民主党历来批评印度的人权记录——这一指控引来了新德里的反驳。
However, all might not be rosy for India. Democrats have historically been critical of India's human rights record - a charge that has invited pushback from New Delhi.
预计民主党将更加密切关注印度的宗教自由状况以及少数群体的待遇。特朗普与巴基斯坦的交易会否受到审查？对于巴基斯坦来说，民主党控制美国国会可能会带来另一种麻烦。过去一年半以来，伊斯兰堡一直在通过奉承和迎合特朗普膨胀的自尊心来与其建立更紧密的联系。其中一些努力涉及与特朗普家族有关的商业交易。
Democrats are expected to focus more closely on the state of religious freedom and the treatment of minority groups in India.COULD TRUMP'S DEALS WITH PAK COME UNDER SCRUTINY? For Pakistan, the takeover of the US Congress by the Democrats could create a different kind of headache. Islamabad has spent the past year-and-a-half building closer ties with Trump, mostly through flattery and by massaging his inflated ego. Some of that effort ran through business deals with links to Trump's family.
其中包括与世界自由金融（World Liberty Financial）的附属机构署的一份谅解备忘录，该公司是特朗普家族的主要加密货币业务。美国特使史蒂夫·威特科夫是其联合创始人之一。今年早些时候，巴基斯坦还与美国公司Powerus签署了一份购买未公告数量无人机系统的协议，该公司与特朗普的儿子们关系密切。巴基斯坦陆军参谋长阿西姆·穆尼尔一直在努力与特朗普建立密切关系。
It includes an MoU with an affiliate of World Liberty Financial, the Trump family's main cryptocurrency business. US special envoy Steve Witkoff is one of its co-founders. Then, earlier this year, Pakistan signed a deal for an unspecified number of unmanned aerial systems with US-based company Powerus, which has close ties to the sons of Trump.
从巴基斯坦方面来看，这两项交易均由无处不在的陆军参谋长阿西姆·穆尼尔主导，特朗普曾称他为“我最喜欢的元帅”。去年9月，巴基斯坦还与美国公司美国战略金属（US Strategic Metals，USSM）签署了一份5亿美元的谅解备忘录，用于开发关键矿产。此外，还有翻新纽约罗斯福酒店的交易，该酒店由巴基斯坦国家航空公司所有。
Pakistan army chief Asim Munir has sought to cultivate close ties with TrumpFrom the Pakistani side, both deals were spearheaded by the ubiquitous army chief Asim Munir, whom Trump has called "my favourite field marshal".Last September, Pakistan also signed a $500 million MoU with the US firm US Strategic Metals (USSM) to develop critical minerals. There is also the deal for the renovation of the Roosevelt Hotel in New York, which is owned by Pakistan's national airline.
据报道，威特科夫在促成该安排方面发挥了关键作用。现在，民主党控制国会两院将意味着对特朗普及其核心圈子进行更多调查和听证会。民主党已经表示将调查特朗普家族的股票交易和加密货币业务。特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳和儿子小唐纳德·特朗普的商业往来。
As per reports, Witkoff played a crucial role in facilitating the arrangement. Now, a takeover of both chambers of Congress by Democrats will mean more investigations and hearings against Trump and his inner circle. The Democrats have already signalled they would investigate the Trump family's stock trading and cryptocurrency ventures. The business dealings of Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and son Donald Trump Jr. will likely face greater scrutiny.
可能会面临更严格的审查。在这种情况下，这可能将巴基斯坦军方拖入调查的大网之中。大局观美国国会权力平衡的变化，可能对印度和巴基斯坦产生不同的影响。对印度而言，共和党的惨败可能为其与特朗普就贸易进行谈判提供更大的空间，而无需感到被迫接受不利条件。然而，这可能并不会结束印美关系的动荡期。对巴基斯坦而言，其担忧更多在于美国国会可能审查其与特朗普核心圈子建立的商业关系。——完
In such a scenario, it may drag the Pakistan military into the dragnet of investigations.THE BIG PICTUREA change in the balance of power in the US Congress might have different implications for India and Pakistan. For India, the drubbing of the Republicans could provide greater room to negotiate with Trump on trade without feeling compelled to accept unfavourable terms. It, however, may not end the turbulent period of India-US ties. For Pakistan, the concern is more about the possibility of US Congress scrutiny of the business relationships it has built with Trump's inner circle.- Ends