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彭博社

美国中期选举后,印度看到部分贸易缓解及新风险India Sees Some Trade Relief, New Risks After US Midterm Vote

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印度将美国视为其最大的出口市场。摄影:苏米特·达亚尔(Sumit Dayal)/彭博社India counts the US as its biggest export market. Photographer: Sumit Dayal/Bloomberg

印度官员对美国中期选举结果持谨慎态度,称这缓解了部分贸易紧张局势带来的压力,但在本已脆弱的双边关系中增添了新的一层不确定性。

Indian officials were cautious on the US midterm election results, saying it eases some of the pressure over trade tensions but creates a new layer of uncertainty in an already fragile relationship.

民主党周二在美国国会参众两院均取得压倒性胜利,是对总统唐纳德·特朗普政策的严厉斥责。他的贸易关税和对伊朗的战争对印度等国造成了特别严重的破坏,美国是印度的最大出口市场,印度则是中东石油的主要进口国。

The Democrats won a landslide victory in both chambers of the US Congress on Tuesday in a sharp rebuke of President Donald Trump’s policies. His trade tariffs and war with Iran have been particularly damaging for countries like India, which counts the US as its biggest export market and is a major importer of oil from the Middle East.

新德里的官员表示,选举结果意味着对特朗普政策的更多监督,以及对总统单方面施加对等关税能力的限制。由于未被授权就此事公开表态,这些官员要求匿名。他们称,这是一个重要的进展,对印度等国而言是积极的。

The election result means more oversight of Trump’s policies and restrictions on the ability of the president to unilaterally impose reciprocal tariffs. That’s an important development and a positive for countries like India, officials in New Delhi said, asking not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

官员们表示,受到打击的特朗普也让印度在贸易协议谈判中获得了一些喘息空间,减轻了新德里同意其认为不利条款的压力。

A bruised Trump also gives India some breathing room in negotiations over a trade deal, reducing pressure on New Delhi to agree to terms it sees as unfavorable, the officials said.

不过,他们表示,特朗普在9月签署了一项俄罗斯石油制裁法案后,仍然拥有征收更高关税的筹码,该法案赋予他向俄罗斯能源最大买家征收高达100%关税的权力。他们还表示,来自正在进行的美国贸易调查的关税威胁依然存在。印度商务部没有立即回应置评请求。

However, Trump still has leverage to impose higher tariffs after he signed into law a Russia oil sanctions bill in September, giving him the ability to impose levies of as much as 100% on the top buyers of Russian energy, they said. There’s also the threat of tariffs from ongoing US trade investigations, they said. India’s Ministry of Commerce didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

在去年双边关系出现裂痕之后,美印两国数月来一直试图达成贸易协议,让双边关系重回正轨。美国官员最近对贸易协议表达了乐观态度,称协议已接近最终敲定。

The US and India have been trying to clinch a trade deal for months and get relations back on track after a fraying in ties last year. US officials have recently expressed optimism over a trade deal, saying an agreement was close to being finalized.

分析人士和前官员表示,现在断言本周的选举结果对印度等国会有何影响还为时过早。

Analysts and former officials said it’s too early to say how the election result this week would play out for countries like India.

曾在2015年至2016年担任印度驻美国大使的阿伦·库马尔·辛格表示:“我们必须观察特朗普与国会的互动动态将如何演变。”他说,时间将证明“特朗普总统将如何消化选举结果的信息,以及他如何看待自己为2028年及以后共和党留下的政治遗产”。

“We must watch how the dynamics of Trump and the Congress evolves,” said Arun Kumar Singh, who served as India’s ambassador to the US in 2015-16. Time will tell “how President Trump absorbs the message of the electoral verdict and how he looks at his legacy for 2028 and beyond for the Republican Party,” he said.

前印度外交政策官员、战略咨询公司亚洲集团现任合伙人阿肖克·马利克表示,很大程度上将取决于民主党控制的国会限制特朗普的能力。

Ashok Malik, a former Indian foreign policy official and currently a partner at the strategic advisory firm Asia Group, said much will depend on the ability of the Democratic-controlled Congress to curtail Trump.

他说:“特朗普在近期及余下总统任期内的行动将是一个重要的衡量标准。这适用于伊朗冲突,更普遍地也适用于特朗普注入贸易、关税和外交政策中的单边主义。这已经破坏了全球体系的稳定。”选举结果还可能对美国移民政策产生影响,这是印度极为关注的一个大问题。特朗普政府一直试图限制其H-1B签证计划,该计划主要用于雇用印度IT人员在美国工作。微软公司以及塔塔咨询服务有限公司和印孚瑟斯有限公司等印度最大的几家IT企业,在很大程度上都依赖该计划来获取熟练劳动力。

“Trump’s actions in the near term and the rest of his presidency will be an important metric,” he said. “This is true of the Iran conflict, but more generally for the unilateralism Trump has injected into trade, tariffs and foreign policy. This has destabilized the global system.”The election result also has likely implications for US immigration policy, a major issue of concern for India. The Trump administration has sought to curb its H-1B visa program, used predominantly to hire Indian IT workers to work in the US. Firms like Microsoft Corp. as well as some of India’s biggest IT businesses, like Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. and Infosys Ltd., rely heavily on the program for skilled labor.

班加罗尔智库塔克夏希拉研究所创始人尼廷·帕伊表示,尽管他仍然相对悲观,但很难预测美洲-印度关系下一步会走向何方。

Nitin Pai, founder of Takshashila Institution, a think tank based in Bengaluru, said it was difficult to predict what comes next for US-India relations, although he remained relatively pessimistic.

他说:“我的评估是,印度应该为过去两年经历的艰难旅程做好准备。无论选举结果如何,我们都必须追求符合国家利益的事情。”美国体制赋予了总统和行政部门巨大权力,“因此,即便民主党拥有一些权力,也并不意味着他无法做自己想做的事”。

“My assessment is India should prepare for the rough ride we have had for the last two years,” he said. “We have to pursue what’s in our national interest regardless of the election results.”The US system gives significant power to the president and executive, “so even if Democrats have some power it doesn’t mean he can’t do what he wants.”

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