很难想象，如此巨大的选举浪潮仍然可能出现。但在表面之下，已经发生了非同寻常的变化。
It was hard to imagine that an electoral wave this big was still possible. But there have been extraordinary changes just beneath the surface.
在今年中期选举竞选开始时，民主党人要想赢得参议院，似乎一切环节都必须毫无差错。周二，对民主党人来说，一切都很顺利，甚至超出预期。
At the beginning of this year’s midterm campaign, it seemed that everything would have to go right for Democrats to win the Senate. On Tuesday, everything went right for Democrats, and more.
这是一场选举海啸：共和党联盟的彻底崩溃，以及半个世纪以来两党中任何一方取得的最大胜利。
This was an electoral tsunami: a complete collapse of the Republican coalition and the largest victory by either party in half a century.
据我们的估计，当所有选票都投出并统计完毕后，民主党将在所有众议院选区的全国普选票总和中以13个百分点的优势获胜。这将是自1974年和1976年水门事件后的选举以来最大的获胜优势。
When all the vote is in and counted, Democrats will win the national popular vote in all House races combined by 13 percentage points, according to our estimates. That would be the largest margin of victory since the post-Watergate elections in 1974 and 1976.
而且从一项指标来看，优势甚至更大：民主党人可能翻转多达七个参议院席位，这些席位在上次总统选举中曾以超过10个百分点的优势偏向共和党。
And by one measure, it’s even larger: Democrats could flip as many as seven Senate seats that leaned Republican by more than 10 points in the previous presidential election.
现代史上没有任何先例表明，两党中任何一方能在如此严重偏向对方的州表现得如此出色。
There’s simply no modern precedent for either party to do so well in states that had leaned so heavily toward the other side.
更有甚者，民主党人不仅在任何红州获胜——他们还在得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州获胜，这两个州在一代人的时间里一直是共和党牢牢掌控腹地的典型代表。而且他们不只是勉强取胜——他们赢得漂亮，包括在得克萨斯州以两位数的优势获胜。
For good measure, the Democrats didn’t just win in any red states — they won in Texas and Kansas, two states that have epitomized the Republican hold on the heartland for a generation. And they didn’t just eke out victories — they won big, including by double digits in Texas.
很难想象，在美国政治这个两极分化的时代，这种海啸仍然可能出现。然而，尽管过去几十年里所有势均力敌的选举结果都给人一种印象，即美国政治分歧难以弥合，但在表面之下，已经发生了非同寻常的变化。
It was hard to imagine that this kind of tsunami was still possible in this polarized era of American politics. But while all of the close election results over the last few decades have given the impression that America’s political divides are intractable, there have been extraordinary changes just beneath the surface.
在过去十年里，特朗普总统摧毁了我们曾经熟悉的共和党。他用一个更年轻、更多元、更不富裕、政治参与度更低、以工人阶级为基础的政党取而代之——这个政党不那么保守，投票意愿更低，对经济问题更加敏感。在第二个任期内，特朗普先生一点一点地拆散了自己的联盟。
Over the last decade, President Trump destroyed the Republican Party as we once knew it. He replaced it with a younger, more diverse, less affluent, less politically engaged, working-class party — one that was less conservative, less likely to vote and more sensitive to economic concerns. In his second term, Mr. Trump dismantled his coalition, piece by piece.
他的关税政策以及在他任内出现的高油价，疏远了那些工薪阶层选民——他们当初被他第一个任期的经济管理成绩以及降低生活成本的承诺所吸引。
His tariffs and the high gas prices under his watch alienated the working-class voters who were drawn to him by his record of economic stewardship in his first term and his promise to lower costs.
他决定对伊朗开战，疏远了一代在哀叹伊拉克和阿富汗无休止战争中成长起来的选民。成为竞选议题的腐败问题以及他对爱泼斯坦档案的处理方式，排斥了那些对华盛顿精英心存疑虑的反建制选民。
His decision to go to war with Iran alienated a generation of voters who grew up bemoaning the forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The corruption that became a campaign issue and his handling of the Epstein files repelled the anti-establishment voters who were suspicious of the Washington elite.
特朗普先生移民政策的过度做法，帮助疏远了那些在2024年大量涌向他的西班牙裔选民——也正是这些选民独自撑住了得克萨斯州的红州地位，尽管民主党在该州大都市白人选民中有所斩获。
The excesses of Mr. Trump’s immigration policies helped alienate the Hispanic voters who had surged to him in 2024 — and who had been singularly responsible for keeping Texas a red state, despite Democratic gains among the state’s metropolitan white voters.
今天上午，我们发布了《纽约时报》选民趋势分析，这是一种评估全国各人口群体投票情况的新方法。根据初步估计，民主党在年轻选民和非白人选民中取得了非同寻常的进展。
This morning, we published our Times Voter Trends analysis, a new way of assessing how demographic groups voted across the country. According to the preliminary estimates, Democrats made extraordinary gains with young and nonwhite voters.
在全国众议院选举投票中，民主党以70%对28%赢得年轻选民，高于卡玛拉·哈里斯在其中53%对44%的胜利。
In the nationwide House vote, Democrats won young voters, 70 percent to 28 percent, up from Kamala Harris’s 53-44 victory among them.
西班牙裔选民的变化幅度同样大。根据我们的估计，民主党以69%对30%赢得他们，高于哈里斯女士2024年的54%对44%。
Hispanic voters swung just as much. Democrats won them, 69-30, according to our estimates, up from 54-44 for Ms. Harris in 2024.
但民主党不仅仅在传统上属于民主党的选民群体中取得进展。在这些初步估计中，他们赢得了48%的白人选民。他们在男性选民中获胜。没有大学学位的白人选民转向左翼的幅度大于大学毕业生。
But Democrats didn’t just make gains among traditionally Democratic constituencies. In these preliminary estimates, they won 48 percent of white voters. They won among men. White voters without a degree swung more toward the left than college graduates.
而民主党在从堪萨斯州威奇托到南卡罗来纳州格林维尔等传统共和党地区的突破之所以可能，只是因为一小部分关键性的倾向共和党选民决定投票给民主党。他们可能一直对特朗普先生心存疑虑，但过去总是投票给他和他的政党。这一次，他们没有。
And the Democratic breakthroughs in traditionally Republican areas, from Wichita, Kan., to Greenville, S.C., were possible only because a crucial sliver of Republican-leaning voters decided to vote for Democrats. They may have been skeptical of Mr. Trump all along, but they always voted for him and his party. This time, they did not.
您可以在这里查看我们按人口统计群体对众议院和参议院选举结果的估算。图表由雷切尔·布伊加斯-洛佩斯制作。
You can explore our estimates for the results by demographic group for House and Senate here. Graphics by Rachel Buigas-Lopez.
内特·科恩是《纽约时报》的首席政治分析师。他报道选举、公众舆论、人口统计和民调。
Nate Cohn is The Times’s chief political analyst. He covers elections, public opinion, demographics and polling.