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特朗普的羞辱为美国提供了机遇Donald Trump’s humiliation offers America an opportunity

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冲浪者称之为“洗衣机”。当巨浪把你从冲浪板上掀翻、卷入水下时,你会完全失去方向感。11月3日,唐纳德·特朗普及其政党就遭遇了这样的境况,他们被数千万美国选民猛烈冲击。他们至今仍未认清自己的国家已经发生了多大的变化。

URFERS CALL it the washing machine. When a giant wave throws you off your board and plunges you underwater, you lose all sense of where you are. That is what befell Donald Trump and his party on November 3rd, as they were slammed by tens of millions of American voters. They have still to grasp just how much their country has changed.

已经很清楚的是,这不是一次针对在任总统的寻常中期选举摆动,而是自50多年前水门事件余波以来最大的浪潮式选举。民主党赢得了国会两院的控制权,将席位翻转深入曾经稳固的红色水域,从南卡罗来纳州到得克萨斯州。

Already it is clear this was not a normal midterm swing against a sitting president, but the biggest wave-election since the aftermath of Watergate more than 50 years ago. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, flipping seats deep into once-safe red waters, from South Carolina to Texas.

未来几天将揭示另外两个教训。其一,这不仅是民主党的胜利,也是美国民主的胜利。选民不能被视作理所当然。如果他们愤怒,他们就会转而反对自己长期支持的政党。由此得出的另一个教训是,两党现在都需要找到一种新的政治运作方式——少花时间激怒自己的选民,多花时间为他们把事情办成。

The coming days will spell out two further lessons. One is that this is not just a triumph for Democrats, but also for American democracy. Voters cannot be taken for granted. If they are angry, they will turn against parties they have long supported. The other lesson, which follows from this, is that both parties now need to find a new way of doing politics—one that spends less time riling up their constituents and more getting things done on their behalf.

这股浪潮席卷了美国。在一些竞选结果尚未揭晓的情况下,民主党拥有54个参议院席位(包括两名独立人士)和大约260个众议院席位,高于此前的47席和214席。他们有望在众议院普选票上以13个百分点的优势获胜。他们还至少多赢得了五个州长职位。堪萨斯州自新政以来首次迎来民主党参议员。在得克萨斯州,民主党人赢得了近40年来的首个参议院席位,并将一位连任三届的州长赶下了台。

The wave has swept across America. With some races still uncalled, the Democrats have 54 Senate seats (including two independents) and around 260 in the House, up from 47 and 214. They are set to win the popular vote for the House by 13 points. They have also taken at least five more governors’ mansions. Kansas has its first Democratic senator since the New Deal. In Texas Democrats won their first Senate seat in almost 40 years and kicked out a three-term governor.

事实证明,选民并不喜欢一位总统:他当选时承诺降低物价、避免战争,上任后却发动关税十字军东征并攻击伊朗——从而推高了物价。如果这位总统不断自我吹嘘、让家人和朋友发财,嘲弄选民自身的艰难处境,选民更是深恶痛绝。盖洛普民调显示,在特朗普的美国,十分之九的成年人抱怨政府腐败普遍存在——这一比例与尼日利亚大致相当。

It turns out that voters do not much like a president who is elected on a promise to lower prices and stay out of wars, but who then goes on to launch a tariff crusade and attack Iran—thereby driving up prices. And they hate it if that president’s relentless self-glorification and enrichment of his family and friends mocks their own hardship. In Mr Trump’s America, Gallup finds, nine in ten adults complain that corruption in their government is widespread—about as many as in Nigeria.

因此,这次投票是对总统的一次审判。但两党政客也应反思选民对现代党派斗争丑陋机制的否定。共和党操纵选区划分,却未能获得席位增益。亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克在得克萨斯州的一场竞选中投入超过1.5亿美元,但他支持的候选人惨败。共和党候选人煽动对穆斯林和跨性别者的恐惧,结果落败。俄亥俄州一名候选人支持一则广告,广告中一位母亲指责他的对手:她自己受虐待的女儿。这锁定了他的失败。

The vote was thus a verdict on the president. But politicians from both parties should also reflect on voters’ rejection of the ugly mechanics of modern partisanship. Republicans gerrymandered seats, but failed to make gains. Elon Musk, a multi-billionaire, poured more than $150m into a race in Texas, but his candidate was trounced. Republican candidates stoked fears over Muslims and transgender people, and lost. One in Ohio backed an ad in which a mother damned his opponent: her own abused daughter. It sealed his defeat.

传递出的信息清晰且充满希望。长期以来,似乎两极分化强于确保民主问责的选举反馈机制。这次不是。选民要求政客将国家繁荣置于对权力的卑鄙追逐之上。据民调显示,就在大选前,80%的美国人呼吁对美国的治理方式进行“实质性变革”或“彻底颠覆”。

The message from this is clear and it is hopeful. It has often seemed as if polarisation was stronger than the electoral feedback that ensures democratic accountability. Not this time. Voters demanded that politicians put the nation’s prosperity above the grubby pursuit of power. Just before the election, polls say, 80% of Americans called for “substantial change” or “complete and total upheaval” in how America is run.

选民已尽其责,政治家现在必须尽其责。当务之急落在共和党身上。特朗普掌控该党后,抛弃了其价值观。大多数老派共和党政客要么被迫离职,要么为求政治生存而出卖原则。选民以其变革呼声,给了共和党第二次机会。有人可能继续追随总统,冒着在未来选举中再次惨败的风险;更勇敢者将为本党注入新生,哪怕这会招致特朗普的报复。他令人畏惧多于爱戴。他们可能会发现,一旦老国王的权力开始衰退,便会以惊人的速度流失。

Voters have done their job. Politicians must now do theirs. The immediate task falls to the Republicans. When Mr Trump took control of the party, he ditched its values. Most old-guard Republican politicians were either forced out of office or traded their principles for political survival. With their call for change, voters have given Republicans a second chance. Some may stick with the president, risking further drubbings in future elections. Braver souls will breathe new life into their party, even if that courts Mr Trump’s vengeance. He is more feared than loved. They may discover that, once the old king’s power begins to ebb, it drains away surprisingly fast.

许多事情都可能出错——包括因成功而得意忘形的民主党。民主党仅比特朗普稍受欢迎。其竞选承诺降低成本、打击腐败和无能,二者缺一不可,但要把握平衡极难。

Plenty could go wrong—including with Democrats flushed by success. Their party is only a bit more popular than Mr Trump. Their campaign succeeded by pairing a promise to lower costs with one to crack down on corruption and incompetence. Both are vital, but the balance will be hard to strike.

若民主党无视腐败,只会加深选民对华盛顿联邦政府的愤世嫉俗和绝望。但若传票和弹劾耗尽其精力,却未能改善民生,选民将觉得再次受骗。与政府的持续对抗也将使通过立法更加困难,例如恢复医疗资金的立法。

If Democrats ignore the rot, they will only deepen voters’ cynicism and despair at the federal government in Washington. But if subpoenas and impeachments consume all of their efforts and they fail to improve people’s lives, voters will feel that they have been hoodwinked once again. A running fight with the administration will also make it harder to pass legislation that would, say, restore funding for health care.

这一切之上,将笼罩着痴迷于留下政治遗产的特朗普身影。有人寄望他余下任期只在白宫闲逛、给高尔夫球镀金、评论花岗岩。这低估了总统行善作恶的能力。

Above it all will loom the legacy-obsessed figure of Mr Trump. Some hold out hope that he will spend the rest of his presidency pottering about the White House, gilding golf balls and opining on granite. That underestimates the president’s capacity, for good and ill.

在国内,特朗普可能专注于赦免朋友、惩罚敌人。任期仅剩两年,他及其亲信和意识形态同调者可能试图从掌权时间中榨取更多利益,无论是通过有利可图的国家支持采矿项目,还是更多驱逐行动。

At home Mr Trump may focus on pardoning his friends and punishing his enemies. With only two years left, he and his cronies and ideologues may try to wring what more they can from their time in power, be that through lucrative state-supported mining ventures or more deportations.

总统在外交政策上依然保有巨大权力。他或许还会对伊朗发动更多打击,试图逼迫乌克兰与俄罗斯达成一份糟糕的协议,甚至入侵古巴。随着白宫更多得力员工盼望离职,人手短缺的行政部门可能会更加受制于总统的心血来潮,对危机的应对准备将极不充分。

The president also retains enormous authority over foreign policy. He may yet pursue further strikes on Iran, try to bully Ukraine into a bad deal with Russia, or invade Cuba. As the White House’s more talented staff eye the exits, a depleted executive branch may find itself even more subject to the president’s whims. It will be ill-prepared for a crisis.

喘息之机 不过,政客们认真履行责任仍存有一线希望。国会共和党或许会考虑与民主党合作,反之亦然(试想一下)。他们可以追究严重腐败,甚至弹劾政府中最鲁莽的内阁成员,包括战争部长皮特·赫格塞斯。他们可以制定人工智能规则,在防范灾难性后果的同时不扼杀创新。

Coming up for air There is a glimmer of a possibility, however, that politicians will take their responsibility seriously. Republicans in Congress may consider working with Democrats, and vice versa (imagine that). They could pursue egregious corruption or even impeach the administration’s most reckless cabinet members, including Pete Hegseth, the secretary of war. They could develop rules for artificial intelligence that guard against disastrous outcomes without crippling innovation.

特朗普不是一个甘愿被冷落的人。他可能会判断,与国会合作比践踏国会更能改善他的历史遗产。我们承认,这并非最可能出现的情景。但正如选民所表明的,无视选民的政客冒着陷入极大困境的风险。■ 仅限订阅用户:想了解我们如何设计每周 ,请订阅我们的每周 故事通讯

Mr Trump is not a man who enjoys being left out. He may judge that he could improve his legacy by working with Congress, rather than trampling on it. That is not the likeliest scenario, we admit. But, as the voters have shown, politicians who ignore them risk ending up in very deep water. ■ For subscribers only: to see how we design each week’s cover, sign up to our weekly Cover Story newsletter

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