字号·· | 护眼
纽约时报

以色列关于伊朗化学武器的说法在美国官员中引发分歧Israeli Claims of Iranian Chemical Weapons Divide U.S. Officials

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

以色列称伊朗正考虑使用化学武器,美方官员意见分歧。一些美国政府官员暗示,以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡正试图把特朗普总统重新拖入军事行动。

Israeli Claims of Iranian Chemical Weapons Divide U.S. Officials Some administration officials suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to draw President Trump back into military action.

据美国和地区官员透露,以色列已与美国分享情报,声称伊朗正在考虑对其对手使用化学武器。这些信息在一些美国官员中引发警觉,另一些人则深表怀疑。

Israel has shared intelligence with the United States asserting that Iran is considering the use of chemical weapons against its adversaries, information met with alarm by some American officials and deep skepticism by others, according to U.S. and regional officials.

一些美国官员认为,这份以色列情报是内塔尼亚胡政府施压行动的一部分,目的是说服特朗普政府重新对伊朗展开大规模作战行动。

Some American officials see the Israeli intelligence as part of a pressure campaign by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to persuade the Trump administration to return to major combat operations against Iran.

另一些官员则认为,鉴于近期出现了一系列关于伊朗准备袭击美国利益的警告,这些威胁应当认真对待。

Other officials believe the threats should be taken seriously, given the recent array of warnings about Iran’s preparations to attack American interests.

以色列已向海湾国家官员分享了部分信息。其中数人怀疑伊朗正在制定使用化学武器的计划,并认为以色列试图推动美国及其伙伴重返战争更激烈的阶段。

Israel has shared some of the information with officials in Gulf countries. Several doubted that Iran was developing plans to use chemical weapons and believe Israel is trying to push the United States and its partners to return to a more intense phase of the war.

美国关于伊朗化学武器或其意图制造化学武器的说法可以追溯到几十年前。2003年,伊朗承认曾在20世纪80年代的两伊战争期间发展过化学能力,但表示后来已将其拆除。

American claims about Iran’s chemical weapons, or its intent to build them, go back decades. In 2003, Iran acknowledged it had developed chemical capabilities during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s but said it later dismantled them.

近年来,美国在年度非机密情报评估中公开断言,伊朗“很可能旨在”继续其化学武器的研发。

In recent years, the United States has publicly asserted in its annual unclassified intelligence assessments that Iran “likely aims” to continue its research and development of chemical weapons.

伊朗公开否认拥有化学武器,此前曾将此类指控称为以色列和内塔尼亚胡发动的心理战。

Iran has publicly denied having chemical weapons and previously described such allegations as psychological war waged by Israel and Mr. Netanyahu.

鉴于以色列情报的机密性质、伊朗计划的敏感性以及美国讨论的保密性,本文所有受访者均要求匿名。

All of the people interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity, given the secret nature of the Israeli intelligence, the sensitivity of Iranian planning and the classified American discussions.

经过八个月的战争,美国和伊朗处于某种僵持状态,正在探索外交突破的可能性,同时也在为重燃战火做准备。

After eight months of war, the United States and Iran are in something of a holding pattern, exploring the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough and preparing for renewed warfare.

关于新情报的争论显示了当前局势的紧张程度以及发生严重误判的可能性。美国官员表示,特朗普政府无意使用核武器,但伊朗官员对此并不确信。

The debate over the new intelligence shows how tense the moment is and the potential for grave miscalculation. U.S. officials have said the Trump administration has no intention of using a nuclear weapon, but Iranian officials are not so sure.

内塔尼亚胡正为其政治生存而战,因为他在上周的选举中未能确保组建政府的明确路径。一些分析人士认为,这位资深领导人可能正在寻求利用安全紧急状态作为筹码,迫使反对派领导人与他组建联合政府。

Mr. Netanyahu is fighting for his political survival after he failed to secure a clear path to forming a government in elections last week. Some analysts believe that the veteran leader may be seeking to use a security emergency as leverage to compel opposition leaders to join him in a coalition.

在过去两周与美国情报机构和其他官员的近期对话中,以色列官员将化学武器威胁描述为比伊朗发展核武器的野心更为紧迫。

In recent conversations with U.S. spy agencies and other officials over the past two weeks, Israeli officials have portrayed the chemical weapon threat as more urgent than Iran’s ambitions to develop a nuclear weapon.

负责应急响应和向平民发布指导的以色列军事单位“内部战线司令部”本周正在以色列各地进行演习,但并未将化学武器防范作为演习的主要部分。

The Home Front Command, the Israeli military unit responsible for emergency response and issuing guidance to civilians, is running drills across Israel this week but is not including chemical weapons preparation as a major part of the exercises.

据两名该单位官员透露,该司令部也没有就此类可能性向其军官或公众发布广泛的安全指南提醒。这两名官员因未获授权接受新闻媒体采访,要求匿名。以色列军方拒绝置评。

The command has also not issued widespread reminders to its officers or the public regarding safety guidelines for such a possibility, according to two unit officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the news media. The Israeli military declined to comment.

在最近几周,美军已在该地区集结了庞大的军火库,拥有海军舰艇、战斗机和轰炸机,准备在中期选举后发动一场相对短暂的高强度打击行动,前提是特朗普总统授权行动。

In recent weeks, the U.S. military has built up a vast arsenal in the region, with naval ships, fighter planes and bombers ready to launch a relatively short campaign of intense strikes after the midterm elections, should President Trump authorize action.

与此同时,美国及其他外交官正试图与伊朗达成一项协议,以重新开放霍尔木兹海峡、解决德黑兰的核计划问题,并推迟进一步的军事行动。这种兵力集结既可能是为了支持这一外交推动,也可能是为重返战争做准备。

At the same time U.S. and other diplomats are trying to forge an agreement with Iran which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Tehran’s nuclear program and put off further military action. The buildup of forces could be intended as much to support that diplomatic push as it is to prepare for a return to war.

伊朗加强了对霍尔木兹海峡商船的袭击,希望在美国周二大选前对美国施加最大经济压力。

Iran has intensified attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, hoping to exert maximum economic pressure on the United States ahead of its elections on Tuesday.

化学武器的使用对伊朗而言是一个特别棘手的问题,伊朗是少数遭受过化学武器之害的国家之一。在两伊战争期间,萨达姆·侯赛因部署化学武器,造成数千人死亡,并导致约10万名伊朗退伍军人和平民出现数十年的健康问题,据伊朗专家称。

The use of chemical weapons is a particularly fraught issue for Iran, one of a few countries that have suffered the effects of them. During the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein deployed chemical weapons, killing thousands and leading to decades of health problems among some 100,000 Iranian veterans and civilians, according to Iranian experts.

美国情报机构长期追踪伊朗化学武器的研发情况,化学武器在国际法下属于禁用武器。据美国官员透露,以色列情报机构已告知美国同行,他们认为伊朗正在迅速推进技术研发,以便将此类武器装载在导弹上,或将其偷运入以色列或另一国发动袭击。

U.S. intelligence agencies have long tracked Iran’s development of chemical weapons, which are banned under international law. Israeli intelligence agencies have told U.S. counterparts that they believe Iran is moving rapidly to develop the technology to put such weapons on a missile or to sneak them into Israel or another country to use in an attack, according to American officials.

对一些美国官员而言,关于伊朗化学武器威胁的言论唤起了人们对2002年美国关于伊拉克大规模杀伤性武器情报失误的记忆。当时伊拉克已基本放弃或冻结了其核、化学和生物计划,但美国情报机构却向小布什总统的白宫表示,他们认定伊拉克拥有此类武器的评估是“铁板钉钉”的。

For some American officials, the talk of chemical weapons threats from Iran has evoked the flawed U.S. intelligence in 2002 about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. Iraq had largely abandoned or frozen its nuclear, chemical and biological programs by then, but U.S. intelligence agencies told President George W. Bush’s White House that their assessment that Iraq had such weapons was ironclad.

知情人士对伊朗部署化学武器的速度——或有效性——持有不同看法。据武器专家和美国官员称,将化学武器装载在弹道导弹上并不困难,但要确保武器能有效散布化学制剂则很难。将炸弹偷运过境也面临挑战。使用无人机投送化学武器也是一种可能性。

People briefed on the new intelligence had different views on how quickly — or effectively — Iran could deploy a chemical weapon. While mounting a chemical weapon on a ballistic missile is not difficult, ensuring that the weapon can effectively disperse a chemical agent is, according to weapons experts and U.S. officials. Smuggling a bomb across a border also poses challenges. Using a drone to deliver a chemical weapon is also a possibility.

一位地区官员表示,以色列曾向海湾国家提出指控,称伊朗正致力于使其化学武器具备实战能力。以色列官员未分享证据,仅向这些官员通报了他们的评估,该官员称海湾国家政府认为这些评估不严肃。

A regional official said Israel had presented Gulf countries with claims that Iran was working to make its chemical weapons operational. Israeli officials did not share evidence but briefed the officials on their assessments, which the official said Gulf governments found unserious.

白宫未予置评,但一位美国官员表示,特朗普将保护美国及其盟友免受任何潜在威胁。美国中央情报局拒绝置评。

The White House did not comment, but a U.S. official said Mr. Trump would keep America and its allies safe from any potential threat. The C.I.A. declined to comment.

内塔尼亚胡办公室发言人表示:“以色列密切追踪伊朗恐怖政权构成的每一种威胁,并已做好应对准备。”伊朗驻联合国代表团发言人未回复置评请求。

A spokesman for Mr. Netanyahu’s office said that “Israel closely tracks every threat posed by the Iranian terror regime and is prepared to deal with it.”A spokesman for Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not return a request for comment.

虽然美国情报界几乎无人质疑伊朗正在研发化学武器,但对于其领导人是否会真正使用这些武器,尤其是在未遭受进一步袭击的情况下,存在重大分歧。

While there is little debate in the U.S. intelligence community that Iran is developing chemical weapons, there is significant debate over whether its leaders would ever use those weapons, especially if not provoked by further attacks.

美国国家情报总监曾在2024年警告称:“伊朗很可能旨在继续为进攻目的研发化学和生物制剂。”拜登政府时期五角大楼中东政策最高官员达娜·斯特劳尔表示,伊朗储存化学武器组分的情况已为人所知超过二十年,但德黑兰从未部署过这些武器。

The U.S. director of national intelligence warned in 2024 that “Iran probably aims to continue research and development of chemical and biological agents for offensive purposes.”Dana Stroul, the Pentagon’s top Middle East policy official in the Biden administration, said it had been known for more than two decades that Iran stockpiled components for chemical weapons but that Tehran has never deployed them.

但斯特劳尔表示,伊朗可能会感到“生存受到威胁,并可能跨越红线,直接进攻性地使用这些非常规武器”。她现任职于华盛顿近东政策研究所。

But Iran might feel “existentially pressured and potentially crossed the line to direct offensive use of these unconventional weapons,” said Ms. Stroul, who is now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

美国一直在监测来自伊朗的各类威胁,在发现伊朗密谋袭击美军战机使用的英国一军事基地后,情报收集工作进一步加强。

The United States has monitored a variety of threats from Iran, as intelligence collection intensified after the discovery of an Iranian plot to attack a military base in Britain used by American warplanes.

10月23日,国家情报总监杰伊·克莱顿向国务卿兼国家安全顾问马尔科·鲁比奥发送了一份备忘录,警告伊朗发动袭击的威胁。随后,美国外交官和其他人员进入高度戒备状态。

On Oct. 23, Jay Clayton, the director of national intelligence, sent Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser, a memo warning of the threat of Iranian attacks. U.S. diplomats and other personnel were then put on high alert.

美国官员表示,美国情报机构评估认为,针对中东地区及其他几个国家美国人的威胁处于自2月战争爆发以来的最高水平。

U.S. agencies assess that the threat against Americans in the Middle East and several other countries is at its highest level since the war started in February, U.S. officials said.

据美国官员透露,美国中央司令部已制定计划,最早于周三开始打击伊朗,时间点在美国中期选举之后、且三艘航空母舰部署在该地区之际。

U.S. Central Command has a plan to strike Iran beginning as early as Wednesday, after the U.S. midterm elections and when three aircraft carriers are in the region, according to U.S. officials.

军方拟定的这类军事行动所需的理想条件仅能维持很短时间。11月初后,其中一艘航母将需返回母港。11月初也是无月之夜时期,这种深度黑暗是美军发动袭击所青睐的。

The ideal conditions for the type of campaign the military has laid out will last only a short time. After early November, one of the aircraft carriers will need to return to its home port. Early November is also a period of moonless nights, the kind of deep darkness the U.S. military likes to use for its attacks.

部分特朗普内阁成员主张争取更多时间,让经济施压战略发挥作用。他们表示,美国对伊朗的封锁和制裁最终将推翻伊朗政府。

Some Trump cabinet members have argued for more time to let a campaign of economic pressure work. They say a U.S. blockade and sanctions on the country will eventually bring down the Iranian government.

但一些官员指出,伊朗一直能够抵御施压战略,几乎没有迹象表明,在没有额外军事打击的情况下伊朗政府会垮台。

But some officials point out that Iran has been able to weather the pressure campaign and that there is little indication that the Iranian government will collapse without additional military attacks.

联邦调查局高级国家安全和情报官员斯蒂芬妮·沃克上周表示,伊朗对美国利益的威胁“是目前整个美国政府的重中之重”。沃克女士说,德黑兰的目标包括间谍活动、影响力行动和网络攻击。今夏,与伊朗有关的黑客瞄准了美国各地数十个供水系统,导致一些县发布了烧开水饮用通告。

Stephanie Walker, a senior national security and intelligence official at the F.B.I., said last week that the Iranian threat to U.S. interests was “a top focus right now for the entirety of the U.S. government.”Tehran’s goals, Ms. Walker said, included espionage, influence and cyberattacks. Iran-linked hackers targeted scores of water systems across the United States this summer, leading some counties to issue boil-water advisories.

伊朗还试图在网上冒充他人,以欺骗其同事与其分享敏感信息的访问权限。她表示,人工智能使这种欺骗手段变得容易得多,“尤其是语音钓鱼攻击”,她指的是基于语音的网络钓鱼攻击。

Iran has also attempted to impersonate people online in order to dupe their associates into sharing access to sensitive information with them. Artificial intelligence has made this form of trickery far easier, “especially with vishing,” she said, referring to voice-based phishing attacks.

沃克女士上周在佐治亚州西岛举行的一次国家安全会议上表示,这场战争“改变了伊朗对其愿意为对付我们而采取何种行动的考量”。

The war “changed Iran’s calculus for what they were willing to do here against us,” Ms. Walker said last week at a national security conference in Sea Island, Ga.

朱利安·E·巴恩斯为《纽约时报》撰稿,报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全议题已逾二十年。

Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades.

纳坦·奥登海默是《纽约时报》驻耶路撒冷记者,报道以色列和巴勒斯坦事务。

Natan Odenheimer is a Times reporter in Jerusalem, covering Israeli and Palestinian affairs.

达斯汀·沃尔兹为《纽约时报》撰稿,报道网络安全和情报事务。他驻扎华盛顿。

Dustin Volz writes about cybersecurity and intelligence for The Times. He is based in Washington.

阅读媒体原文 ↗