The COP31 climate summit might count as a success if there is a commitment from all countries attending to significantly boost the electrification of their economies, according to the event’s head of negotiations.

One of the main goals of the organizers of the United Nations climate conference starting next week in Antalya, Turkey, is to have countries party to the Paris Agreement to sign up to a goal to increase the global share of final energy demand coming from electricity to 35% by 2035, from about 20% today. So far, however, the ambition remains only a voluntary one for countries to commit to.

“I would like to see a strong outcome on electrification in our presidency-led decision,” said Chris Bowen, Australia’s climate change and energy minister and COP31’s president of negotiations, on the podcast. That decision would have to be signed off by all countries attending the summit, which starts on Nov. 9.

The rise in oil and gas prices linked to ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East has forced fossil-fuel importing countries — which make up three-fourths of the world’s population — to find ways to reduce consumption and find alternatives. Electrification is part of the solution. With costs falling for solar panels and batteries, many countries have opted to speed up the transition to electric cars and heat pumps.

“Electrification is an unquestionably good thing,” Bowen said. “Even if your grid is powered by coal and you don’t have solar panels at home, if you’re just charging [an electric car] off a coal-fired grid, you are reducing emissions by something like 60%.”

Primary energy is how fuel is found in nature, like crude oil; final energy is how fuel is consumed, for example as gasoline or electricity; and useful energy is the fraction of final energy that is converted into work, such as motion or cooling.

While it’s true that about 80% of the world’s primary energy comes from fossil fuels, only about 65% of its final energy is derived from coal, oil or gas. Thus electrification is foremost an energy efficiency solution, because it reduces primary energy demand without cutting the useful outcomes that citizens want.

The electrification goal for COP31 got a boost when China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the biggest manufacturer of electricity technologies, indicated in October that it supports the target. Bowen is hoping it can be pushed further.

COP summits often feature voluntary goals from countries willing to act faster on tackling climate change. At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, for example, countries signed off on a goal to triple nuclear power by 2050. As of March, some 38 countries endorsed the goal, but the amount of nuclear power in the world has not increased substantially so far.

Also at COP28, the presidency-led decision included a goal to double energy efficiency and triple renewable energy by 2030. While progress on energy efficiency has been limited, there are strong indications that the world will get close to the renewable energy target.

But this push for more ambition to electrify and cut emissions is coming at a difficult time for most citizens who are grappling with affordability issues. While electrification can offer lower cost energy in the long term, it needs large upfront investments in infrastructure.

However, Bowen tamped down expectations that rich countries will provide any additional finance at COP31. “This is not a finance COP” to set new targets, he said. “It’s about how we’re going on meeting those targets, and what do we need to do to get the finance that is already there.”