
全球可再生能源正在兴起,从配备电池储能的太阳能电池板到电动汽车的快速普及。与化石燃料相比,各国正在扩大这些更清洁能源的占比,尤其是在美国以外的地区。
Renewable sources of energy are on the rise around the world, from solar panels paired with battery storage to rapid electric vehicle adoption. Countries are expanding the share of energy coming from these cleaner sources when compared to fossil fuels, particularly outside of the US.
但清洁能源转型的速度与进展,与气候外交的缓慢步伐之间,呈现出一种“分屏”状态。当世界各国于11月9日在土耳其安塔利亚聚会,参加今年的联合国气候峰会——即第31届缔约方大会(COP31)时,它们很可能会发现自己陷入由长期张力驱动的谈判中:一方是工业化国家(迄今为止对全球变暖负主要责任),另一方是发展中国家。
But there is a split screen between the speed and progress of the clean energy transition and the slow pace of climate diplomacy. When countries around the world gather in Antalya, Turkey, on Nov. 9 for this year’s UN climate summit, known as COP31, they’re likely to find themselves in talks driven by longstanding tensions between industrialized nations (which are responsible for most global warming to date) and the developing world.
专家表示,谈判与行动之间的平衡,比初看起来要少一些“失衡”。无论是在谈判桌上还是在现实世界中,都取得了进展。他们说,谈判为日益增长的可再生能源依赖奠定了部分基础,并提供了减少碳和甲烷排放的急需推动力。
Experts say that balance between talks and action is less out-of-whack than it may initially appear, however. There’s progress being made, both at the negotiating table and in the real world. The talks lay some of the foundation for the growing reliance on renewables and provide a much-needed push to reduce carbon and methane emissions, they said.
今年COP的重点是落实现有协议,例如《巴黎气候协定》,这很可能会给谈判代表施加压力,要求他们在帮助发展中国家为其能源转型融资、以及为气候损失提供赔偿方面做出承诺。这两个问题是这些会议上尤为棘手的议题,此前几年在它们上面取得的进展相对有限。
The focus this year at COP is on implementing existing agreements, such as the Paris Climate Agreement, which is likely to put pressure on negotiators to make commitments on helping developing nations to finance their energy transition and compensate them for climate damages. These are two especially thorny issues at these meetings, with relatively scant progress made on them in previous years.
这并不意味着COP会议不重要。专家表示,此类峰会对于推动各国制定减少温室气体排放的计划尤为宝贵。
This doesn’t mean that COP meetings are unimportant. Experts say such summits are especially valuable for pushing countries to carve out their plans for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
曾在拜登政府时期担任美国气候变化副特使的里克·杜克表示:“《巴黎协定》在两条轨道上运行——谈判和行动——并且在这两方面都取得了重要进展。”他说:“例如在行动方面,2021年有100多个国家加入了‘全球甲烷承诺’和一项终止森林砍伐的宣言。”
“The Paris Agreement operates on two tracks — negotiations and action — and it has delivered important progress on both,” said Rick Duke, who served as the deputy US special envoy for climate change during the Biden administration. “On the action front, for example, in 2021 over 100 countries joined the Global Methane Pledge and a declaration to end deforestation,” he said.
杜克说,尤其是中国和巴西取得了进展。中国现在将甲烷纳入其国家目标,而新当选的巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦正在推进终止亚马逊森林砍伐的计划。他说:“尽管如此,这一进程需要更好地追究各国对其国家目标的责任,并将注意力集中在甲烷和森林等能够最快减少变暖的‘紧急刹车’解决方案上。”
China and Brazil, in particular, have made progress, Duke said. China now includes methane in its national targets and newly-reelected Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is pushing forward on plans to end Amazon deforestation. “That said, the process needs to do a better job holding countries accountable for their national targets and focusing attention on the “emergency brake” solutions like methane and forests that can cut warming fastest,” he said.
伯克利地球气候科学家、Stripe气候研究负责人泽克·豪斯法瑟表示,与几年前做出的预测相比,清洁能源成本的急剧下降有助于降低未来几十年预期变暖的严重程度。
Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth and climate research lead at Stripe, said the steep decline in the costs of clean energy sources has helped to lower the severity of expected warming during the coming decades compared to projections made just a few years ago.
但他说,这其中有多少是数十届缔约方会议取得的成就,而不是有利的经济因素和各国无论如何都会采取的行动,目前并不完全清楚。
But how much of this was an achievement of decades of COP meetings, as opposed to favorable economic factors and actions countries would have taken anyway, is not entirely clear, he said.
豪斯法瑟说:“很难将这一进展与各国可能针对气候谈判本身采取的行动,以及可再生能源随着时间推移变得越来越便宜这一简单经济因素区分开来。”“缔约方会议进程有点像所有实际正在进行的艰苦工作之上的一个挂名招牌。”归根结底,无论是土耳其的政策讨论,还是全球可再生能源的部署,其速度都不足以避免进一步变暖的危险程度。
“It is difficult to separate out this progress from action countries may have taken in relation to the climate talks themselves, and simply the economics of renewables becoming far cheaper over time,” Hausfather said. “The COP process is sort of like the figurehead on top of all of the hard work that’s actually happening.”The bottom line is that neither the policy discussions in Turkey nor global renewables deployment are happening fast enough to avert perilous amounts of further warming.
例如,上个月发布的一份联合国报告警告称,全球将很快突破《巴黎协定》中设定的1.5摄氏度升温目标,而我们最大的希望是限制进一步升温、大幅削减排放,并尽快让气温回落。
A UN report released last month, for example, warned that the world will soon overshoot the 1.5-degree Celsius warming target contained in the Paris Agreement, and that our best hope is to limit further warming, slash emissions and cool temperatures back down as quickly as possible.