
东京/曼谷——随着全球努力遏制气候变化,太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机已成为摆脱化石燃料转型最显眼的标志。但更清洁的电力只是挑战的一半。
TOKYO/BANGKOK -- Solar panels and wind turbines have become the most visible symbols of the shift from fossil fuels as the world strives to keep climate change in check. But cleaner electricity is only half the challenge.
从人们驾驶的汽车到工厂制造商品的方式,全球消耗的能源仍有很大一部分直接来自推动全球变暖的化石燃料。
From the cars people drive to the way factories make goods, much of the energy the world consumes still comes directly from the fossil fuels driving global warming.
土耳其是下周一开始的联合国COP31气候变化大会主席国,它表示“下一个合乎逻辑的步骤”是加速电气化。它为本届峰会设定了一个自愿目标:到2035年,将电力在最终能源消费(即终端用户消费的能源量)中的占比从23%提高到35%。
Turkey, president of the United Nations' COP31 climate change conference beginning Monday, says the "next logical step" is accelerating electrification. It has set a voluntary target for the summit of increasing electricity's share of final energy consumption -- the amount consumed by end users -- from 23% to 35% by 2035.
亚洲占全球二氧化碳排放量的一半,处于这场电气化浪潮的核心。除气候变化之外,今年因美国与以色列对伊朗的战争而引发的能源危机——本十年内的第二次——也增添了动力,因为电气化的经济和商业理由更加充分。
Asia, which accounts for half of global carbon dioxide emissions, sits at the heart of this electrification drive. Beyond climate change, this year's energy crisis -- the second this decade -- stemming from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran has added impetus as the economic and business case for electrification strengthens.
支撑电气化的技术——芯片、电池、电力电子、电机和传感器——同样处于人工智能、机器人技术及其他信息技术的核心。能源智库Ember称,将这些技术结合起来,有望使制造成本降低40%至70%,同时最大限度地利用可再生能源和电池。
The tech underpinning electrification -- chips, batteries, power electronics, motors and sensors -- also sits at the heart of artificial intelligence, robotics and other information technologies. Combining them promises to bring down manufacturing costs by between 40% and 70%, according to the energy think tank Ember, while maximizing the use of renewables and batteries.
电气化还有望带来高得多的效率。国际能源署称,纯电动汽车每公里能耗通常比同类内燃机汽车低70%至80%,因为其产生的废热少得多。在工厂中,感应加热和红外加热等技术可以让制造商更精确地控制热量,在某些情况下还能缩短生产线并改善工作条件。
Electrification also promises far greater efficiency. Battery electric vehicles typically use 70% to 80% less energy per kilometer than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles as they generate much less waste heat, according to the International Energy Agency. In factories, technologies such as induction and infrared can offer manufacturers more precise control over heat, in some cases allowing them to shorten production lines and improve working conditions.
根据国际能源署(IEA)的数据,电力提供了实际可用能源的37%。占国内生产总值(GDP)47%的经济活动由电力驱动。
Electricity provides 37% of actually useful energy, according to the IEA. Economic activities accounting for 47% of gross domestic product were powered by electricity.
虽然印度和日本等国在电气化技术方面具有优势,但中国已成为公认的领导者。能源与清洁空气研究中心(Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air)估计,中国今年出口的太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机、电池和电动汽车,将使其境外每年的碳排放量减少的量,相当于巴西每年从化石燃料中产生的排放总量。
Although countries such as India and Japan have strengths in electrification technology, China has emerged as the undisputed leader. Its exports of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and EVs this year will cut annual emissions outside its borders by the same amount as Brazil's annual total from fossil fuels, estimates the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
中国的技术主导地位和国内推广,使分析人士将其称为第一个“电力国家”——与更为熟悉的“石油国家”形成对比。中国国家能源管理局预计,随着家庭转向使用热泵、电动汽车在道路上的占比增加以及电网升级支出较过去五年平均水平上升39%,达到每年约1万亿元(1500亿美元),到2030年电气化率将达到35%。
China's technological dominance and domestic rollout has seen analysts dub it the first "electrostate" -- in contrast to the more familiar petrostate. The country's National Energy Administration expects it to reach an electrification rate of 35% by 2030 as homes turn to heat pumps, EVs make up more of the cars on the road and grid upgrade spending rises 39% from the past five-year average to reach an estimated 1 trillion yuan ($150 billion) per year.
北京在其发布于COP31之前的年度气候变化报告中,强调了其在全球气候治理中“日益增长的领导力”,这一表述比去年更为强硬。
In its annual report on climate change published ahead of COP31, Beijing highlighted its "growing leadership" in global climate governance which represented stronger language than last year.
在亚洲其他地区,前景则较为黯淡。在气候与能源组织“我们意味着商业联盟”(We Mean Business Coalition)最近编制的电气化竞争力指数中,印度尼西亚和菲律宾被列为“早期采用”阶段,而韩国被描述为“面临停滞风险”。印度勉强被列为“具备起飞潜力”,而中国是唯一被评估为拥有“坚实基础”的亚洲国家。位于亚洲电气化光谱两端的日本和泰国,凸显了该地区各经济体面临的共同与不同的挑战。
Elsewhere in Asia, prospects are weaker. In a recent electrification competitiveness index compiled by the We Mean Business Coalition climate and energy group, Indonesia and the Philippines landed in the "early-stage adoption" segment, while South Korea was described as at "risk of stalling." India narrowly ranked as having "potential for take-off," while China was the only Asian nation assessed that was described as having a "solid foundation." Japan and Thailand, at opposite ends of Asia's electrification spectrum, highlight the shared and differing challenges for the region's varied economies.
前者需要解决经济中更难以电气化的部分,而后者则表明,疲软的增长和传统化石燃料体系可能会阻碍进展。
The former will need to tackle harder-to-electrify parts of the economy, while the latter shows how weak growth and legacy fossil-fuel systems can hold back progress.
日本的电气化率在国际能源署(IEA)追踪的亚洲国家中最高,在全球也处于较高水平。建筑电气化帮助推高了这一比率,但现在的挑战是应对更难的工业应用,并在交通领域取得更大进展。
's electrification rate is the highest among Asian countries tracked by the IEA and among the highest globally. Electrification of buildings has helped push that rate up, but the challenge now is to confront harder industrial applications and make greater progress in transportation.
住宅部门的电气化率从1990年不到40%上升至55%。但这与其说是一项宏大的政府主导电气化战略的结果,不如说是数十年来平凡的家庭决策所致。随着收入增长,电器普及,取代了燃烧化石燃料的设备。
The residential sector saw its electrification rate rise from just under 40% in 1990 to 55%. But that reflects less a grand government-led electrification strategy than decades of mundane household decisions. As incomes rose, electric appliances became ubiquitous, replacing equipment that burned fossil fuels.
首当其冲的是空调,它也能供暖,其普及得益于20世纪90年代末开始的逐步加强的能效计划。这一转变也更容易,因为日本家庭通常不依赖欧洲部分地区常见的燃气中央供暖系统。
Foremost has been air conditioning, which can also provide heat, with uptake buoyed by a progressively stronger energy efficiency program that began in the late 1990s. The shift was also easier because Japanese homes typically do not rely on the gas-fired central heating systems common in parts of Europe.
2000年代,热水供应也开始出现类似转变。热水约占家庭能源消耗的四分之一,原因是文化上偏好泡澡而非淋浴,使其成为最大的能源消耗来源之一。
A similar shift began in water heating in the 2000s. Hot water accounts for about a quarter of household energy consumption, due to the cultural preference for baths over showers, making it one of the biggest sources.
“使用热泵热水器(如EcoCute)的情况有所增加,因此家庭热需求正逐渐向电力转变,”中央电力研究所(CRIEPI)高级研究经理西尾健一郎表示。
"The use of heat pump water heaters such as EcoCute has increased, so there has been a gradual shift in household heat demand toward electricity," said Kenichiro Nishio, senior research manager at the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).
然而,相对轻松的电气化在其他领域难以复制。工业占该国最终能源消耗的最大份额,不到30%,是一个典型例子:其电气化率自1990年以来仅上升了2.3个百分点,2024年仅为36.8%。
Yet the relatively painless electrification is harder to replicate elsewhere. Industry, accounting for the biggest portion of the country's final energy consumption at just under 30%, is a case in point: Its electrification rate has only risen 2.3 percentage points since 1990, and stood at only 36.8% in 2024.
电气化已在某些工艺中取得进展。在占日本二氧化碳排放量13%的钢铁行业,日本制铁和JFE钢铁等公司正投入数十亿美元,将高炉改造为电炉。此外,专家表示,其他领域的干燥和灭菌等工业过程也可采用热泵完成。
Electrification has made inroads into certain processes. In the steel industry, which accounts for 13% of Japan's CO2 emissions, companies like Nippon Steel and JFE Steel are investing billions of dollars to turn their blast furnaces into electric furnaces. In addition, industrial processes like drying and sterilization in other sectors can be done with heat pumps, experts say.
另见新加坡气候科技初创企业搭乘政府绿色能源雄心的快车 但热泵通常适用于最高约200摄氏度的低温和中温应用。
See also Singapore's climate tech startups ride government's green energy ambitions But heat pumps are generally suited to low- and medium-temperature applications of up to around 200 C.
即使技术可用,转换也并非简单地用一台设备替换另一台。工厂在燃气锅炉和蒸汽系统运行方面拥有数十年经验,但往往缺乏整合热泵的专业知识。外部支持也不够完善。
Even where the technology can be used, switching is not as simple as replacing one piece of equipment with another. Factories have decades of experience operating gas boilers and steam systems, but often lack the expertise in integrating heat pumps. Outside support is also underdeveloped.
“你必须以与生产线紧密结合的方式改变能源供应,”可再生能源研究所(REI)电气化与热能高级经理山本明表示。
"You have to change the energy supply in a way that is closely integrated with the production line," said Akira Yamamoto, senior manager for electrification and heat at the Renewable Energy Institute (REI).
“除非有需求,否则热泵制造商无法投资开发服务,”他补充道。“但工厂不一定认为需要转换,因此供应商也难以投资。”政府已开始采取措施,2023年修订的《节约能源法》要求大型能源消费者提交非化石能源转型的中期和长期计划。然而,专家表示,尽管日本自2022年以来为汽油补贴预算了超过10万亿日元(630亿美元),电气化的推动力仍然薄弱。
"Heat pump manufacturers can't invest in developing services unless there is demand," he added. "But factories don't necessarily think they need to make the switch, so suppliers find it difficult to invest as well." The government has begun taking steps, with the Revised Energy Conservation Act of 2023 requiring large-scale energy consumers to submit mid- to long-term plans for non-fossil energy transition. Yet experts said the impetus for electrification has been weak, despite the country budgeting more than 10 trillion yen ($63 billion) for gasoline subsidies since 2022.
交通运输就是一个典型例子,它是第二大能源消费领域,也是电气化程度最低的领域。虽然本十年来电动汽车销量在全球大幅增长,中东冲突也为其提供了额外推动,但在日本,汽油补贴让消费者几乎没有转换动力。政府正计划因成本问题逐步取消这项支持,但也在考虑取消电动汽车补贴。
This is exemplified by transportation, the second-largest energy consuming sector and the least electrified. While EV sales have ramped up globally this decade, with an extra boost coming from the Middle East conflict, in Japan, gasoline subsidies have given consumers little incentive to shift. The government is planning to wind down that support due to the cost, but it is also contemplating ending EV subsidies.
REI呼吁日本支持35%的目标。该组织表示,设定“热泵部署目标并引入激励措施以实现这些目标”,将能刺激需求,并为投资该技术的公司增加可预测性。不过,电气化技术本身的益处可能也会促进进一步采用。
The REI is calling for Japan to endorse the 35% target. It said that setting "heat pump deployment targets and introducing incentives to achieve them" would stimulate demand and increase predictability for companies investing in the technology. Still, the benefits of electric technologies may themselves encourage further adoption.
“减少温室气体排放、提高能源效率和减少对进口化石燃料的依赖都很重要,但我认为,同样重要的是要看电气化如何改善工业流程本身,”西尾表示。
"Cutting greenhouse gas emissions, improving energy efficiency and reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels are important, but I think it is also essential to look at how electrification can improve industrial processes themselves," Nishio said.
低电气化率反映了以化石燃料车辆为主的车队、各领域根深蒂固的天然气使用以及缓慢的增长。
's low electrification rate reflects a predominantly fossil-fuel vehicle fleet, entrenched gas use across sectors and slow growth.
“我们希望电动汽车能成为泰国电气化的主要驱动力,”泰国能源部能源政策与规划办公室总干事瓦塔纳蓬·库罗瓦特表示。
"We hope that EVs could be the main driver of electrification in Thailand," said Wattanapong Kurovat, director general of the Energy Policy and Planning Office at the Ministry of Energy.
电气化车辆销量正在激增。据普华永道(PwC)统计,各类电池电动汽车和混合动力车型占泰国上半年汽车销量的53%,在主要东盟经济体中,泰国的占比和销量均居首。
Electrified vehicle sales are surging. Battery electric vehicles and hybrid models of all kinds accounted for 53% of Thai auto sales in the first half of 2026, according to PwC. The country had the highest share and volume among major ASEAN economies.
保持这一势头,或许有赖于中国电动汽车品牌在泰国的制造设施。这些品牌受泰国庞大的现有汽车工业吸引而来,以其价格亲民的车辆而闻名。
Maintaining that momentum could be helped by the presence of manufacturing facilities of Chinese EV brands, which were drawn to Thailand by its large existing auto industry and are known for their affordable vehicles.
伊朗战争爆发后,泰国政府推进2000亿泰铢(约合60亿美元)的新借款,用于资助包括电网升级在内的措施。另在曼谷,交通管理部门将用1520辆电动公交车替换燃气和柴油公交车,而该地区的电力公司将承担中小企业将现有燃料供暖设备更换为热泵费用的25%。
In the wake of the Iran war, the Thai government moved ahead with 200 billion baht ($6 billion) in new borrowing to fund measures including grid upgrades. Separately in Bangkok, the transport authority will replace gas and diesel buses with 1,520 electric counterparts, while the region's electricity company will cover 25% of the cost for small and medium-size enterprises to replace existing fuel-based heating equipment with heat pumps.
在泰国庞大的水泥行业,一些资金雄厚、投资视野长远的大型财团——例如泰国最大水泥制造商暹罗水泥集团——正在引领远离天然气的转型,而天然气仍占主导地位。据Kasikorn Bank可持续发展研究负责人Krit Sitathani表示,这使得该行业成为电气化进程最快的领域之一,但这只是相对于其他领域进展缓慢而言。
In the country's large cement industry, a few capital-rich conglomerates with long investment horizons -- such as Siam Cement Group, Thailand's largest cement maker -- are leading a shift away from use of gas, which still dominates. This has made it one of the fastest sectors to electrify, according to Krit Sitathani, Kasikorn Bank's sustainability research lead, but only compared with slow progress elsewhere.
“很多企业只是在设备寿命结束时,从天然气转向电力,”Krit表示。
"A lot of them are just swapping from gas to electric when there's end of life," Krit said.
电力仅占该行业最终能源消耗的13%。据5月发表的一项泰德研究显示,要加快进展,还需要实施大幅的碳定价、税制改革和基础设施升级。
Electricity only accounts for 13% of the sector's final energy consumption. Substantial CO2 pricing, tax reforms and infrastructure upgrades are needed to speed up progress, according to a Thai-German study published in May.
在交通运输领域,大多数泰国车辆仍使用内燃机。据替代能源开发与效率部数据显示,1月至7月期间,电力仅占交通运输领域能源消耗的0.3%。
And within transportation, most Thai vehicles still have internal combustion engines. Electricity accounted for just 0.3% of transport-sector consumption in the January-July period, Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency data showed.
由于泰国对进口电动汽车征收35%的关税以保护其内燃机汽车产业,电动汽车普及可能受到阻碍。其到2030年实现零排放车辆占国内汽车产量至少30%的目标看起来充满不确定性。
EV adoption could be held back as Thailand seeks to protect its combustion-engine industry through a 35% duty on imported EVs. Its target for zero-emission vehicles to comprise at least 30% of domestic vehicle production by 2030 looks uncertain.
“我实际上认为政府政策应该稍作审查。……我们可能会延长目标,”瓦塔纳蓬表示,并指出人们对过度依赖中国电气化技术的更广泛担忧。“我们对此非常担忧。……我们认为这将在未来成为一个非常大的问题。”3月23日,曼谷国际车展上,中国品牌小鹏汽车的一款电动汽车。中国电动汽车的涌入引发了泰国的担忧,尽管该国正着眼于道路运输的电气化。
"I actually think the government policy should be reviewed a little bit. ... We'll maybe extend the target," Wattanapong said, noting wider concerns about overreliance on Chinese electrification tech. "We are very concerned about that. ... We think this would be a very big problem in the future." An electric vehicle from Chinese brand Xpeng at the Bangkok International Motor Show on March 23. The influx of Chinese EVs has caused concern in Thailand even as the country eyes the electrification of road transport.
其他障碍包括城市外充电基础设施有限,以及缺乏泰国人偏好的四轮驱动汽车的电动选项,克里特表示。天然气的使用在多个领域也根深蒂固。
Other obstacles include limited charging infrastructure outside cities and few electric options for Thais' preferred four-wheel drive cars, Krit said. Natural gas use is also deeply entrenched in a number of sectors.
“从某种意义上说,泰国是一个传统经济体,”东南亚聚焦咨询公司Vector Energy Advisory的合伙人杰克·尼兰德表示。
"Thailand is, in some ways, a legacy economy," said Jack Kneeland, partner at Vector Energy Advisory, a Southeast Asia-focused consultancy.
泰国20世纪80至90年代的工业和经济繁荣由国内天然气驱动,使基于该燃料的供暖被锁定。尼兰德将其与越南形成对比,越南近年来更强劲的增长推动了电热的采用。尽管如此,燃料冲击为能源转型计划注入了新的动力。
Thailand's 1980s-90s industrial and economic boom, powered by domestic gas, locked in heating based on the fuel. Kneeland contrasted this with Vietnam, where stronger recent growth has driven adoption of electric heat. Still, the fuel shock has given fresh impetus to plans for the energy transition.
“我们必须加快能源转型,”能源部长阿卡纳特·蓬潘10月22日在曼谷的一个能源行业会议上表示,称这对于“推动工业增长和驱动经济”至关重要。9月提出的一项新电力发展计划旨在增加可再生能源,并获得私营部门的大力支持,但这也带来了电网升级以应对可变能源的挑战。最新的电力发展计划草案估计,到2050年,升级成本将在3600亿至7000亿泰铢之间,具体取决于可再生能源的最终目标。
能源效率和可再生能源目标有助于电气化,Ember公司外部事务与战略影响负责人迪尼塔·塞蒂亚瓦蒂表示。
"It is imperative that we accelerate our energy transition," Energy Minister Akanat Promphan told an energy industry conference in Bangkok on Oct. 22, calling it essential to "fuel industrial growth and drive the economy." A new Power Development Plan proposed in September to boost renewables, with significant private sector support, brings challenges around grid upgrades to handle the variable energy sources. The latest PDP draft estimates upgrades will cost 360 billion to 700 billion baht by 2050, depending on renewables' eventual Targets on energy efficiency and renewables can help electrification, said Dinita Setyawati, external affairs and strategic impact lead at Ember.
“政府主要关注可再生能源的安装,但我认为我们也需要一套有效的工业政策,或许可以鼓励这些行业使用更多热泵,”她说。“工业领域在很大程度上被政府忽视了。政府似乎认为,工业可以自行解决。”
"Largely the government is focusing on installation of renewable energy, but I think we also need an effective industrial policy, maybe incentivize these industries to use more heat pumps," she said. "The industrial space is being largely overlooked by the government. The government kind of sees it that industry can take care of itself."