For three decades, the United Nations has held an annual summit to bring countries together to try to limit the worst effects of global warming. This year’s Conference of the Parties, known as COP31, comes as severe wildfires, flooding and drought have affected millions of people around the world. Those deadly disasters have been exacerbated by climate change, underscoring the stakes for negotiators as they embark on another round of talks from Nov. 9.

The gathering is being co-hosted by Turkey and Australia in the Turkish resort city of Antalya. It’s been billed as a “COP of implementation” that seeks to translate talk into action. COP discussions have a tendency to get bogged down in the minutiae. Securing an agreement at the end of the summit will require more than 190 countries to reach a consensus.

Adding to the challenges this year is the Iran war, which has pushed climate action down the agenda for many governments as they prioritize security of energy supply. And for the second year in a row, the US won’t be sending an official delegation to COP, skipping its last chance to participate in negotiations before its withdrawal from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) takes effect in February.

The world is running out of time to keep planetary warming below catastrophic levels. Under the Paris Agreement adopted in 2015, countries set a goal to limit the long-term increase in global temperatures to 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial levels. They also agreed to pursue efforts to contain warming to 1.5C.

Scientists say that exceeding 1.5C could trigger irreversible climate tipping points, including the melting of the polar ice caps, the collapse of coral reef systems and a dieback of the Amazon rainforest, adding to the losses from deforestation. This temperature threshold was already crossed on an annual basis in 2024, the hottest year ever, and that feat could be repeated in 2026 thanks to the return of the El Niño weather phenomenon. A breach over a longer period of time is now seen as “imminent and unavoidable” due to “decades of insufficient mitigation action,” according to a UN Environment Programme report published in October.

That’s increased the urgency to take action this decade. The world may still be able to achieve the “lowest possible” overshoot, where warming is limited to 1.7C to 1.8C by 2050 and then brought down to 1.5C by the end of the century, the UNEP report said. Doing so would require a rapid reduction in emissions versus 2025 levels, starting with an 18% cut by 2030 and a 69% drop by 2040. If countries follow through on their latest national climate plans, global emissions would only fall by as much as 8% by the end of this decade, according to the UNEP.

Some COP summits have achieved major breakthroughs. COP3 in 1997 marked the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, which outlined the legal obligations of rich countries to cut their greenhouse gas emissions. COP21 brought us the Paris Agreement. COP28 in 2023 culminated in a landmark pledge to transition away from fossil fuels.

COP31 is expected to be a more low-key affair. Countries are unlikely to unveil bolder emissions-cutting strategies as most of them only recently submitted their updated national plans to the UN. Signatories to the Paris Agreement are required to update these plans every five years. The latest iterations outline their emissions targets to 2035.

► Electrification push COP31 is unlikely to result in a new commitment to phase down the use of fossil fuels. Restricting production of oil, gas and coal, the approach favored by some more climate-vulnerable countries, is opposed by fossil fuel-exporting nations that rely on this stream of revenue.

Last year’s gathering was unable to reach an agreement to develop a roadmap to shift away from these dirtier energy sources. In fact, the final deal didn’t even explicitly mention fossil fuels. This year’s hosts backed a statement in October calling for a transition away from fossil fuels. But they’ve also suggested that rather than continuing to press countries to agree to a phase-out or phase down, the best path forward would be to set a goal for greater electrification of the global economy.

That would promote a move away from direct use of fossil fuels in sectors such as transport, heating and industry. The proposal, which is supported by China, is to raise the share of final energy demand met by electricity to 35% by 2035, from just over 20% today.

Based on the technologies currently available and energy prices prior to the Iran war, the world could get “within striking distance” of this target, according to International Energy Agency analysis. Climate advocates have called for the goal to be underpinned by renewable power to ensure the electrification push isn’t served by burning fossil fuels.

► Climate finance Delivering on promises for financing to help developing nations lower their emissions has long been a point of contention at COP summits. Wealthier countries pledged to provide $100 billion of annual support by 2020 and only managed to reach this goal in 2022. Two years later at COP29, they committed to supply at least $300 billion per year by 2035.

There’s still a big gap between that promise and reality. Developed nations only managed to mobilize around $137 billion in 2024, based on the latest data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

COP29 also produced a broader pledge for “all actors” to scale up climate finance for developing nations to at least $1.3 trillion annually by 2035. Countries have yet to agree on who should contribute and how the money should be split across public and private sources.

The European Union’s climate chief has said that talks on new climate finance commitments at this year’s COP are “dead in the water,” at least when it comes to the EU providing more money. The 27-member bloc is the largest provider of climate finance globally. There’s frustration that this support isn’t being met with more ambitious emissions-cutting efforts.

► Adaptation finance Climate extremes have affected almost every region of the world this year, from wildfires in Western Europe to catastrophic flooding in Nepal. That’s fed calls for wealthier nations to follow through on pledges to provide financial support to help developing countries adjust to the impacts of climate change.

The agreement reached at COP30 “calls for efforts” to at least triple climate adaptation financing by 2035. But negotiators didn’t set a clear baseline year for how this target should be calculated.

Previous climate disasters have been influential in securing new funding commitments at COP meetings. In 2022, following devastating flooding in Pakistan that was responsible for a $30 billion economic hit, a dedicated fund was finally agreed upon to help the poorest nations recover from climate-related damage. Pakistan’s delegation pushed for an agreement, producing a breakthrough after years of negotiations.

Still, that loss and damage fund is underfunded relative to countries’ needs. Pledges of more than $800 million are far outweighed by the $2.8 billion of aid requests. No money has been disbursed from the fund to date.

The host position rotates each year among the UN’s five regional groupings. Interested countries submit bids and governments within the groups select the host by consensus.

Turkey and Australia, which are members of the “Western European and Other States” group, competed to stage this year’s talks and reached an unusual compromise: Turkey is serving as the venue, while Australia is leading the negotiations.

Both countries have faced criticism over their ties to fossil fuels. Australia is a major exporter of coal and natural gas, while Turkey’s power generation remains heavily reliant on these polluting energy sources.

The US has retreated from global cooperation to reduce emissions since President Donald Trump returned to office. It completed its exit from the Paris Agreement in January, marking the second time Trump has pulled out of the pact.

The country is also in the midst of withdrawing from the UNFCCC, the legal mechanism under which countries gather every year to discuss how they can collectively lower emissions and adapt to global warming. This process won’t be completed until February, meaning that the US is still eligible to participate in the COP31 negotiations. After that point, it will only be able to attend global climate summits as an observer.

The US has historically helped to push through more ambitious COP deals. Its absence from the summits could strengthen the position of oil-producing nations that have previously worked to water down ambition.

The US pullback from climate action may have reduced momentum among other countries to pursue steeper emissions cuts. The updated climate plans submitted to the UN ahead of this year’s COP haven’t significantly increased in ambition, IEA analysis found earlier this year.