几十年来，海湾石油天然气公司以可靠著称。但近期的交易指向一种新的认知：该地区已无法为世界保障能源安全。取而代之的是，海湾产油国将在未来十年进行国际投资，将自身嵌入全球能源供应链，以便在下一次中断来临时做好准备。
For decades, Gulf oil and gas companies boasted of their reliability. But recent deals point to a new recognition: The region can no longer guarantee energy security for the world. Instead, Gulf producers will spend the next decade investing internationally, enmeshing themselves in global energy supply chains so the region is ready when the next disruptions hit.
在伊朗冲突的早期，随着经由霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输几近停摆，重点在于重新规划路线。新建管道、铁路和港口被讨论为绕过这一咽喉要道的途径。
In the early days of the Iran conflict, as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz virtually ground to a halt, their focus was on rerouting. New pipelines, railways, and ports were discussed as ways to get around the chokepoint.
沙特阿拉伯的东西向管道被证明是一条至关重要的生命线，既对能源市场，也对该王国的财政健康至关重要，阿布扎比通往富查伊拉的管道亦是如此。这两条管道目前都在扩建中。但正如胡塞武装对沙特管道的袭击所显示的，“B计划”还不够。问题不仅仅是几条狭窄水道，而是在危机时刻无法确保海湾能源设施的安全。
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline proved to be a crucial lifeline, both for energy markets and the kingdom’s financial health, as did Abu Dhabi’s pipeline to Fujairah. Both are now being expanded. But as Houthi attacks on the Saudi pipeline have shown, Plan B isn’t enough. The problem isn’t just a couple of narrow waterways, it’s the inability to ensure the security of Gulf energy facilities in a crisis.
今年的冲突显示，廉价无人机相对容易绕过世界上一些最昂贵的防空系统，打击管道、港口和船只。投入数十亿美元新建管道，可能仅仅是制造出一份更长的目标清单，并让防御系统分布得更加稀疏。美国中期选举的结果，使得从海湾视角看，伊朗冲突更有可能保持未解决状态——特朗普总统可能面临对其实施“彻底解决”式打击能力的制约，且其失败的外交记录在面对伊朗以强硬著称的谈判代表时恐不会有所好转。这确保了该地区根深蒂固的敌意将持续发酵。
This year’s conflict has shown the relative ease with which cheap drones can slip past some of the world’s most expensive air defense systems and hit pipelines, ports, and ships. Pouring billions more into new pipelines may achieve little more than creating a longer target list and spreading defensive systems more thinly. The outcome of the US midterms makes it more likely the Iran conflict remains unresolved from the Gulf’s perspective — with President Donald Trump possibly facing constraints on his ability to pursue “finish-the-job” strikes and a track record of failed diplomacy that may not get any better faced with Iran’s famously tough negotiators. That ensures fundamental animosity in the region will continue to fester.
即使伊朗战争今天结束——从而终结胡塞武装对曼德海峡航运的威胁以及伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡航运的袭击——海湾地区作为可靠石油和天然气供应国的声誉已遭受不可挽回的损害。为避免失去市场份额，海湾地区正为下一次动荡来袭做准备。
But even if the Iran war is settled today — bringing to an end Houthi threats to shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Iranian attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the Gulf’s reputation as a reliable supplier of oil and gas has been irreparably damaged. To avoid losing market share, the Gulf is readying itself for when instability next hits.
卡塔尔能源公司正在购买国际液化天然气货物，以对冲霍尔木兹海峡未来可能关闭的风险。阿布扎比在战争爆发前已启动国际投资计划，如今正加速推进其雄心。
QatarEnergy is buying up international LNG shipments as a hedge against any future closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Abu Dhabi had already launched an international investment plan before the war and is now accelerating its ambitions.
沙特阿拉伯最新达成的协议，将在新加坡地下洞库储存石油，规模或许不足以撼动全球市场。但这同样是一份意向声明——旨在在全球范围内建立储备能力，以应对最坏情况。
Saudi Arabia’s latest deal, to store oil in underground caves in Singapore, may not be big enough to sway global markets. But it, too, is a statement of intent — in this case to build reserve capabilities around the world, ready for a worst-case scenario.
预计未来几个月将出现更多类似交易。由于无法确保国内基础设施安全，海湾能源公司将越来越多地通过全球化布局来对冲风险。
Expect to see many more similar deals in the months ahead. Unable to ensure the security of domestic infrastructure, Gulf energy companies will increasingly hedge by going global.