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民主党人认为对富人征税的计划迎来新势头Democrats see new momentum for plans to tax the rich

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参议员克里斯·范霍伦说:“我们必须让美国人民知道我们的立场。”范霍伦可能是2028年总统竞选的潜在竞争者。“It is essential that we show the American people where we stand,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a potential 2028 presidential contender.

富人重新成了华盛顿的靶子。民主党在周二中期选举中大获全胜后,一度沉寂多年的联邦财富税以及对富裕阶层大幅增税的提案,在国会山重新活跃起来。

Rich people are back on the menu in Washington. After Democrats’ resounding victory in Tuesday’s midterm elections, proposals for a federal wealth tax and other stiff tax increases on the well-to-do are roaring back to life on Capitol Hill after years of lying dormant.

民主党人甚至并不在意,如今承诺要做“否决先生”的总统唐纳德·特朗普仍有能力否决他们通过的任何法案。许多人已经把目光越过他,着眼于为2028年总统选举搭建政纲,表示需要集中精力向选民突出本党的优先事项。

Democrats don’t even necessarily care that President Donald Trump — now promising to be “Mr. Veto” — will still be in position to shoot down anything they pass. Many are already looking past him as the party builds a platform for the 2028 presidential elections, saying that they need to focus on highlighting their priorities for voters.

参议员克里斯·范霍伦(民主党-马里兰州)表示,民主党人还应乐见明年与实力削弱的特朗普就向富人征税和改善生活可负担性展开一场否决之争,他认为这只会帮助本党向公众把这一点讲清楚。

Democrats should also welcome a veto fight next year with a weakened Trump over taxing the rich and improving affordability, said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), arguing that will only help the party drive home the point with the public.

“我们必须让美国人民看到我们的立场,”有望角逐2028年总统提名的范霍伦说。“如果特朗普否决它,那只会向人们表明他站在亿万富翁一边。”民主党人在周二晚间获得了巨大的势头,在众议院和参议院均赢得决定性多数,容错空间远大于共和党在过去两年所享有的。此外,超级富豪群体的不断壮大,只会强化他们向富人开刀的梦想——人工智能巨头Anthropic和OpenAI正准备上市,更不用说他们的老对头埃隆·马斯克即将成为世界首位万亿富翁。

“It is essential that we show the American people where we stand,” said Van Hollen, a potential 2028 presidential contender. “If Trump vetoes it, it will just show people that he’s on the side of billionaires.”Democrats got a huge shot of momentum Tuesday night, winning decisive majorities in both the House and Senate, with far bigger margins for error than Republicans have enjoyed over the past two years. Moreover, the growing ranks of the ultra-wealthy have only strengthened their dreams of sticking it to the rich as artificial intelligence giants like Anthropic and OpenAI prepare to go public — to say nothing of their frequent antagonist Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire.

大型科技公司正借助人工智能技术积累财富,而人们普遍预计这项技术将导致大量失业,选民也在选举中用选票对此予以强烈否定,这只会进一步助推民主党人要求提高税收的呼声。除此之外,还有对财政收入的迫切需求。

That Big Tech is building its fortune on AI technology that's widely expected to result in significant job losses — and which voters roundly rebuked at the polls — could only supercharge Democrats’ calls for higher taxes. Beyond all that is a desperate need for revenue.

社保即将面临资不抵债,立法者将不得不寻找资金来源,民主党想向选民证明自己有能力解决负担能力问题,也将如此。他们许多优先事项,比如恢复健康保险的加强版税收补贴,都需要大笔资金,而政府2万亿美元的赤字将迫使立法者权衡成本。

Social Security's looming insolvency will have lawmakers searching for cash, as will Democrats’ desire to show voters they are up to the task of addressing affordability. Many of their priorities, like reinstating beefed-up tax subsidies for health insurance, will be pricey, and the government’s $2 trillion deficit will force lawmakers to reckon with the cost.

“他们将不得不弄清楚是否以及如何为这些政策变化买单,”前参议院民主党高级税务助理安娜·泰勒说。“这将是谈话的重要部分。”如何支付的问题将在国会民主党中引发巨大争论。

“They’re going to have to figure out if and how they want to pay for those policy changes,” said Anna Taylor, a former top Democratic tax aide in the Senate. “That will be a big part of the conversation.”The "how" part will be a huge debate among congressional Democrats.

财富税曾是左翼的心头好,如今在民主党中越来越主流,尽管加州选民正在拒绝一项此类提案。目前国会已有多项提案待决,范·霍伦和其他多位可能的总统候选人已接受这一想法,确保它将继续处于前沿。

A wealth tax, once a hobbyhorse of the left, is emerging as an increasingly mainstream idea among Democrats, even if voters are rejecting one for California. There are now multiple proposals pending in Congress, and Van Hollen and a number of other possible presidential candidates have embraced the idea, ensuring it will remain at the forefront.

范·霍伦淡化了加州提案的明显失败,认为当富人可以轻易通过搬到其他地方来避免征税时,单靠一个州单独行动并不现实;谷歌联合创始人谢尔盖·布林在搬到内华达州时就是这样做的。民主党的提案将更难避免。

Van Hollen downplayed the California measure's apparent defeat, suggesting it was impractical for one state to go it alone when wealthy people could easily avoid the levy by moving elsewhere; that's what Google co-founder Sergey Brin did when he relocated to Nevada. Democrats' proposals would be much harder to avoid.

“我认为支持度在增长,”范·霍伦说。“人们正在认识到,我们有一个允许个人积累巨额财富的税收体系。”与此同时,多数民主党人是否支持财富税远未明朗,部分原因在于对其合宪性的质疑。

“I think there’s growing support,” says Van Hollen. “People are recognizing that we have a tax system that allows individuals to accumulate huge amounts of wealth.”At the same time, it’s far from clear that a majority of Democrats support a wealth tax, in part because of questions about its constitutionality.

尽管第十六修正案为征收所得税创造了例外,但宪法中一条晦涩的条款要求“直接税”——一个通常被解释为无法转嫁给他人的税种的过时术语——必须在各州间按人口比例分摊。这是一项财富税很可能无法通过的测试。

Though the Sixteenth Amendment created an exception allowing for income taxes, an arcane clause in the Constitution requires “direct taxes” — an anachronistic term that’s typically interpreted as a tax that can’t be passed on to someone else — to be apportioned among the states, allowing them to be paid in proportion to their populations. It's a test a wealth tax would likely flunk.

一些民主党人还担心,如果他们试图用财富税为昂贵的支出计划融资,却最终很可能被最高法院否决该税种,只会加剧政府的预算问题。

Some Democrats also worry they will only exacerbate the government’s budget problems if they try to finance costly spending initiatives with a wealth tax, only to have the levy likely nixed by the Supreme Court.

但资深民主党人已经开始悄悄推出针对富人的其他更传统的增税方案。

But senior Democrats have already started to quietly roll out ideas for other, more traditional tax hikes on the rich.

预计将在新的民主党多数派中回归担任参议院多数党领袖的纽约州参议员查克·舒默最近提出,将股票回购税提高四倍。即将重新掌握税务立法的财政委员会主持人权杖的俄勒冈州参议员罗恩·怀登有一系列提案,包括一项限制富有投资者使用衍生品的计划。

New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, expected to return in the new Democratic majority as Senate majority leader, recently proposed quadrupling a tax on stock buybacks. Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, now set to retake the gavel of the tax-writing Finance Committee, has a slew of proposals, including a plan to restrict wealthy investors’ use of derivatives.

怀登周三在一份声明中说:“委员会将加倍努力,确保亿万富翁支付他们应尽的份额,并追究偷税漏税者的责任。”

“The committee will redouble its efforts to ensure billionaires pay their fair share and hold tax cheats accountable,” Wyden said in a statement Wednesday.

预计将出任税务筹款委员会主席的马萨诸塞州众议员理查德·尼尔(民主党人)希望限制富人在退休账户中存放的金额。范霍伦也提出了一项针对年收入超过100万美元人群的累进附加税方案,该想法已获得参议院近半数民主党党团成员的背书,其中包括马凯利(亚利桑那州)和安格斯·金(缅因州,无党派)等温和派参议员——且已有多个州实施了类似措施。立法者还可以重提拜登政府时期曾被考虑但最终被搁置的想法,例如提高奥巴马时代针对投资收入的附加费。

Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), the likely incoming Ways and Means Committee chair, wants to limit how much rich people can stash in retirement accounts. Van Hollen also has proposed a sliding scale of surtaxes on people making more than $1 million, an idea that’s been endorsed by nearly half of the Democratic caucus in the Senate including moderates like Sens. Mark Kelly (Ariz.) and Angus King (I-Maine) — and already implemented by multiple states. Lawmakers could also dust off ideas that were considered, but discarded, during the Biden administration, such as increasing an Obama-era surcharge on investments.

民主党人可能会从俄亥俄州参议员伯尼·莫雷诺和俄克拉荷马州众议员汤姆·科尔等共和党人那里获得一定程度的政治掩护,他们最近表态支持增税以帮助资助社会保障——但远未达到支持财富税的程度。

Democrats could potentially get a measure of political cover from Republicans such as Sens. Bernie Moreno of Ohio and Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, who’ve recently come out in favor of higher taxes to help fund Social Security — while stopping well short of supporting a wealth tax.

现任德勤税务政策组负责人的泰勒表示,即将到来的民主党党团内部会呈现何种支持态势还是个未知数,该党团在南卡罗来纳州、堪萨斯州和爱荷华州等地赢得席位后,将在地理上更加多元化。

Taylor, who is now head of the Tax Policy Group at Deloitte, said it was an open question what support might look like inside the incoming Democratic caucus, which will be a lot more geographically diverse after picking up seats in places like South Carolina, Kansas and Iowa.

她说:“看看这些即将到来的红州民主党人是否对其中一些提案感到舒服,或者他们是否会持不同立场,这将很有趣。我认为我们目前还不清楚。”即使在拜登政府时期民主党全面掌控政府时,他们也只设法推通过了几项主要增税措施,比如针对企业的新最低税,而没有一项直接瞄准高收入者,这要归咎于温和派的反对。

“It will be interesting to see if some of these red-state Democrats coming in are comfortable with some of these proposals, or if they’re going to be in a different place,” she said. “I don’t think we know yet.”Even when Democrats controlled the entire government during the Biden administration, they only managed to push through a few major tax increases, like a new minimum tax on corporations, and none aimed squarely at high earners, thanks to objections by moderates.

主张对富人增税的“奠基合作组织”政策高级副总裁亚历克斯·哈克兹说:“这是一次巨大的失败。”但哈克兹对这次的前景要乐观得多。

“It was a huge failure,” said Alex Jacquez, senior vice president of policy at Groundwork Collaborative, which advocates for higher taxes on the rich. But Jacquez likes their chances a lot better this time around.

他说:“与2022年和2023年相比,两院的党团对向富人征税将更加友好。”而且公众站在民主党这边,中期选举前的民调显示,选民强烈渴望对最富有的人增税。

“You’re going to have a more friendly caucus in both chambers to taxing the wealthy than in 2022 and 2023,” he said. And the public is with Democrats, with polls ahead of the midterms showing voters had a strong appetite to tax the richest.

他说:“人们很愤怒,并将这种愤怒指向大企业和富人。就舆论而言,这是向富人增税的最佳时机。”

“People are angry, and they are directing that anger at big corporations and the wealthy,” he said. “When it comes to public opinion, this is the best moment that you could have to raise taxes on the wealthy."

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