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华尔街日报

如果民主党在2028年重现胜局,你的财务状况会如何变化How Your Finances Could Change if Democrats Repeat Their Win in 2028

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佛罗里达州西棕榈滩市政厅外立着一面“在此投票”的横幅,一名身穿红裙的人牵着狗走下台阶。A "Vote Here" banner stands outside West Palm Beach City Hall in Florida as a person in a red dress walks down steps with a dog.

美国人在周二中期选举中民主党大获全胜后,正重新审视自己的财务状况。

Americans are sizing up their finances after Democrats’ blowout victories in the midterm elections Tuesday.

选举结果指向一套新的财政与税收政策议程,如果民主党在2028年赢得总统职位,这套议程就可能付诸实施,因为预计特朗普总统在仍入主白宫期间会阻止重大变革。

The results point to a new financial and tax-policy agenda that could take flight if the Democrats win the presidency in 2028, as President Trump is expected to block major changes while he is still in the White House.

对个人而言,这意味着有两年时间来最大化税收优惠,并为未来的政策变化调整投资组合。以下是三个尤其值得关注的领域。

For individuals, that would mean two years to maximize tax breaks and prepare portfolios for policy shifts ahead. Here are three areas of particular focus.

中期选举后的第二天上午,即将出任参议院财政委员会主席的参议员罗恩·怀登(民主党-俄勒冈州)再次呼吁将矛头对准超级富豪。他在周三表示:“在税收方面,委员会将加倍努力,确保亿万富翁缴纳他们应缴的份额,并追究逃税者的责任。”

The morning after the midterms, Sen. Ron Wyden (D., Ore.), the incoming Senate Finance Committee chairman, renewed his calls to target the ultrarich. “On taxes, the committee will redouble its efforts to ensure billionaires pay their fair share and hold tax cheats accountable,” he said Wednesday.

本周早些时候,佛罗里达州西棕榈滩的一面“在此投票”横幅。Martina Tuaty 为《华尔街日报》拍摄A ‘Vote Here’ banner in West Palm Beach, Fla, earlier this week. Martina Tuaty for WSJ

尽管在特朗普执政期间民主党难以加税,但他们可能会试图撤销他去年签署成为法律的部分减税措施,尤其是那些惠及高收入家庭的政策。如果民主党在2028年选举中大获全胜,这可能意味着提高普通收入和资本利得的最高税率,甚至降低赠与税和遗产税的免税额。怀登还提议对未实现收益或在死亡时的资本利得征税。

While Democrats will have difficulty raising taxes with Trump in office, they might attempt to undo some of the tax cuts that he signed into law last year, especially those that benefit higher-income households. That could mean higher top tax rates on ordinary income and capital gains, or even a lower gift and estate-tax exemption amount, if the Democrats sweep the 2028 elections. Wyden has also proposed taxing unrealized gains or capital gains at death.

顾问们表示,目前富人正在利用慷慨的赠与税和遗产税限额,以及每位受赠人每年额外1.9万美元的赠与免税额。由于根据新税法,终身赠与税和遗产税合计免税额随通胀调整,据估计,个人的免税额将从1500万美元升至2027年的约1550万美元。

For now, advisers say the rich are taking advantage of the generous gift and estate-tax limit, and the additional $19,000 annual exclusion for gifts per recipient. Because the combined lifetime gift and estate-tax exemption amount is indexed for inflation under the new tax law, it is estimated to rise from $15 million for a person to about $15.5 million for 2027.

格伦米德公司首席财富策略师马克·帕特默表示,遗产规划面临的最大威胁是无所作为。“我们并不是要按下恐慌按钮,”他说。但如果客户向家庭成员赠送礼物,将资产从遗产中剥离,并将未来的增值从资产负债表中移出是合理的,那么“宜早不宜迟”。一些受欢迎的避税策略引起了参议院民主党人的注意,他们希望对这些策略加以限制。

The biggest threat to estate plans is inaction, said Mark Parthemer, chief wealth strategist at Glenmede. “We’re not hitting the panic button,” he said. But if it makes sense for clients to make gifts to family members to get assets out of their estates and move future appreciation off their balance sheets, “sooner is probably better than later.”Some popular tax-avoidance strategies have caught the attention of Senate Democrats who want to rein them in.

即使在特朗普执政期间,对于一些政府认为更具侵略性的策略,风向也开始转变。财政部在9月份表示,将阻止一种名为351转换的操作,该操作一直被用于规避资本利得税,并指出了其他类似操作。

Even under Trump, the tide has started to shift on some strategies the government sees as more aggressive. The Treasury Department said in September that it would block one maneuver, known as a 351 conversion, that has been used to avoid capital-gains taxes, and it flagged others.

但民主党人,尤其是怀登,表示这些举措还不够。怀登曾表示,政府应该打击多空税务感知投资策略。已有近2000亿美元流入该策略,该策略允许投资者跟踪指数,同时产生可用于抵消资本利得税的亏损。

But Democrats, most notably Wyden, have said that those moves don’t go far enough. Wyden has said that the government should crack down on the long-short tax-aware investment strategy. Nearly $200 billion has flowed into the strategy, which allows investors to track an index while also generating losses that can be used to offset capital-gains taxes.

怀登还在4月份提出了一项针对私募寿险的法案。私募寿险是一种可定制的保险合同,允许无限投资免税增长,在超级富豪投资者中越来越受欢迎。

Wyden also introduced a bill in April targeting private-placement life insurance, a customizable insurance contract that allows unlimited investments to grow tax-free, that has become increasingly popular among ultrawealthy investors. Wyden and Rep. Richard Neal (D., Mass.), who is likely to be chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, want to put limits on the size of tax-advantaged retirement accounts, barring high earners from contributing once balances exceed $10 million.

怀登和众议员理查德·尼尔(民主党-马萨诸塞州)——后者很可能成为众议院筹款委员会主席——希望限制税收优惠退休账户的规模,禁止高收入者在余额超过1000万美元后继续缴款。

Also potentially in the crosshairs: grantor-retained annuity trusts, or GRATs, which the wealthy use to transfer fortunes to their children without paying gift and estate taxes.

同样可能成为目标的还有:授予人保留年金信托(GRAT),富人利用这种工具将财富转移给子女,而无需缴纳赠与税和遗产税。

Wealth advisers say they don’t expect much to change as long as Trump is in office, but all bets are off if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028.

财富顾问们表示,只要特朗普在任,他们预计不会有太大变化,但如果民主党人在2028年赢得总统大选,一切就不好说了。与此同时,他们建议客户趁现在还能用的时候使用这些策略。

Meanwhile, they are counseling clients to use the strategies while they can. “The next two years are going to provide a pretty stable window for high-net-worth families to implement whatever strategies they might want to,” said AJ Kletkin, a wealth adviser at Private Advisor Group.

私人顾问集团的财富顾问A·J·克莱特金表示:“未来两年将为高净值家庭提供一个相当稳定的窗口,去实施他们可能想要的任何策略。如果发生任何变化,希望你们能被 grandfather 条款保护。”无论谁掌控华盛顿,社会保障都面临迫在眉睫的资金缺口。

“If there are any changes that happen, you’re hopefully grandfathered in.”Social Security faces a looming funding shortfall regardless of who controls Washington.

据该项目的受托人称,用于支付退休和遗属福利的信托基金预计将在2032年末耗尽储备。届时,除非国会采取行动,否则该项目的持续收入将只能覆盖约78%的既定福利。解决这个问题将取决于新当选的参议员们。

The trust fund that pays retirement and survivor benefits is projected to exhaust its reserves in late 2032, according to the program’s trustees. At that point, continuing program income would cover about 78% of scheduled benefits unless Congress acts. It will be up to the newly elected senators to help solve the problem.

社会保障主要由12.4%的工资税提供资金,由雇员和雇主各承担一半。今年,该税仅适用于工资和自雇收入的前18.45万美元。至少两位在周二赢得参议院席位的民主党人——密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德和缅因州的特洛伊·杰克逊——在竞选中主张取消这一上限。

Social Security is funded mainly by a 12.4% payroll tax, split evenly between workers and employers. It applies only to the first $184,500 of wages and self-employment income this year. At least two Democrats who won Senate seats Tuesday, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine, campaigned on removing that cap.

许多年长选民认为国会会让他们免于福利削减。但佐治亚州梅肯市71岁的庭审律师拉塞尔·波士顿表示,作为让该项目建立在稳健基础上的协议的一部分,他愿意接受像他这样的富裕退休人员被削减福利。“不管怎样,他们都会解决这个问题,”他说。

Many older voters assume Congress will spare them from benefit reductions. But Russell Boston, a 71-year-old trial lawyer in Macon, Ga., said he would accept a reduction for affluent retirees like himself as part of a deal to put the program on sound footing. “One way or the other, they’ll fix the problem,” he said.

国会上一次重大社会保障改革于1983年颁布,其中一些最具影响的条款是在数十年间逐步实施的。社会保障受托人警告说,拖延会让议员们可用于将必要的增税或福利变化分摊到几代人身上的时间更少。年轻家庭已经在为这种不确定性做打算。

Some of the most consequential provisions in Congress’s last major Social Security overhaul, enacted in 1983, were phased in over decades. Social Security’s trustees have warned that waiting leaves lawmakers less time to spread the necessary tax increases or benefit changes across generations. Younger families are already planning for the uncertainty.

44岁的凯莱布·盛是底特律地区的一名遗产规划律师,他正在做规划,好让自己年幼的女儿不必依赖社会保障。除了529大学储蓄计划外,他和妻子还开设了一个特朗普账户,并计划在女儿24岁时将其转为罗斯个人退休账户,由他们自己缴税。他们还计划给她留一个罗斯账户。

Caleb Sheng, 44, an estate-planning lawyer in the Detroit area, is planning so his toddler daughter won’t have to rely on Social Security. Along with a 529 college-savings plan, he and his wife opened a Trump account and plan to convert it to a Roth IRA when she is 24, paying tax on it themselves. They also plan to leave her a Roth.

盛希望今天的退休人员能继续一分不少地拿到钱。为了支付这笔钱,并让该项目对女儿这一代人保持偿付能力,他说他愿意放弃自己的福利。“我们这一代应该成为牺牲性的桥梁一代,”他说。

Sheng wants today’s retirees to keep getting every penny. To pay for that, and keep the program solvent for his daughter’s generation, he said he would be willing to forgo his own benefits. “My generation should be that sacrificial bridge generation,” he said.

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