
美国选民周二让民主党在中期选举中大获全胜,并赋予其解决财政问题的授权。一项又一项民调显示,选民对美国经济现状,尤其是食品、汽油和住房等基本生活必需品的成本感到愤怒。
Americans handed Democrats a thumping midterm victory on Tuesday, and with it, a mandate to fix their money problems. In survey after survey, voters voiced their anger over the state of the US economy, especially the cost of essentials like food, gas and housing.
许多选民现在指望新当选的领导人采取行动降低生活成本,帮助他们省钱。但事情很少那么简单。国会无法控制市场和GDP增长,更别说汽油价格和食品杂货价格了。虽然候选人承诺要反击关税和伊朗战争,但许多事情仍掌握在唐纳德·特朗普总统手中。尽管如此,选举至关重要,结果可能在税收、退休、人工智能监管等领域产生长期影响。以下是国会权力易手可能对您个人资产负债表意味着什么。
Many voters now expect their newly elected leaders to do something to lower the cost of living and help them save. But it's rarely that simple. Congress can't control markets and GDP growth, much less gas prices and groceries. And while candidates have pledged to push back on tariffs and the Iran war, much still lies in President Donald Trump's control. Nevertheless, elections matter, and the results could have long-term consequences in areas like taxes, retirement, AI regulation and more. Here is what the reversal of power in Congress could mean for your personal balance sheet.
特朗普的标志性经济成就是去年通过《一项宏伟美好法案》。由于特朗普拥有立法否决权,民主党无法废除该法案的主要条款,例如给高收入者减税。据纽约梅隆财富管理咨询、规划和受托服务主管Alvina Lo表示,他们可以采取行动延长一些他们支持的OBBBA临时条款。
Trump’s signature economic accomplishment was last year’s passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Democrats won’t be able to unwind the bill’s major provisions, like tax cuts for high earners, since Trump has veto power over legislation. They could act to extend some of the OBBBA’s temporary provisions that they favor, according to Alvina Lo, head of advice, planning and fiduciary services at BNY Wealth.
这些临时条款包括加班费和小费收入的部分扣除,以及为65岁及以上纳税人提供的额外扣除。州和地方税(SALT)扣除的状态也在讨论之列,根据现行规定,其上限将于2029年底从目前的4万美元恢复至先前的1万美元。来自纽约、新泽西等高税州的一些民主党人呼吁彻底取消SALT扣除上限。
Those temporary provisions include deductions for a portion of overtime pay and tip income, as well as an additional deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older. Also on the table is the status of the state and local tax, or SALT, deduction, which is set to revert from its current $40,000 cap to its prior level of $10,000 at the end of 2029. Some Democrats from high-tax states like New York and New Jersey have called for eliminating the SALT cap entirely.

一些州和地方的选举结果也可能具有全国性影响。在加利福尼亚州,选民似乎将否决一项针对亿万富翁财富的税收提案,并批准了一项使更高边际税率永久化的措施。罗表示,这表明像马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦等人提出的那种广泛的财富税不太可能实现,尽管各州层面有提高边际税率的意愿。这些举措可能会给富有的美国人继续提供理由,让他们离开高税收州份。那些无法搬迁的人,很可能会继续在被视为税收友好的州份(如特拉华州和内华达州)设立信托,以减少州所得税,罗说。
Some state and local results may also have national implications. In California, voters appeared on track to defeat a tax on billionaire wealth and approved a measure making a higher marginal tax rate permanent. That suggests a broad wealth tax like the one floated by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and others is unlikely, Lo said, though there’s an appetite at the state level to raise marginal tax rates. Those moves could give wealthy Americans continued reason to leave high-tax states. Those who can’t move will likely keep setting up trusts in states considered tax-friendly, such as Delaware and Nevada, to reduce their state income tax, said Lo.
社会保障的财务未来悬在华盛顿上空。大选并未提供解决方案,但增强了民主党在制定解决方案时的话语权。许多民主党人希望通过向高收入者征收更多税收(即增税),而非削减福利,来为该计划建立更稳固的基础。
The financial future of Social Security looms over Washington. The election doesn’t provide a solution, but it strengthens Democrats’ hand in shaping one. Many Democrats want to build a firmer foundation for the program by raising more revenue from (i.e. taxing) high earners, rather than cutting benefits.

由民主党主导的国会很可能会推动扩大退休计划覆盖人群的范围。马萨诸塞州民主党籍众议员理查德·尼尔是2022年国会通过的最后一项重大退休法案《2022年保障法案2.0》的主要发起人之一,他将重新掌管众议院筹款委员会,这是拥有退休计划管辖权的几个权力委员会之一。
A Democrat-led Congress is likely to pursue efforts to expand the universe of people covered by retirement plans. Representative Richard Neal, a Massachusetts Democrat and a chief sponsor of 2022’s Secure 2.0 Act, the last major retirement bill Congress passed, is set to retake the reins at the House Ways and Means Committee, one of the powerful panels with jurisdiction over retirement plans.
潜在议程包括:扩大退休计划的自动入职覆盖面,增加兼职和零工工人的计划参保资格,并可能为无法获得职场退休计划的人创建联邦退休账户。
Potentially on the docket: expanding automatic enrollment in retirement plans, increasing plan eligibility among part-time and gig workers, and possibly creating a federal retirement account for people who don't have access to a workplace plan.
民主党控制国还将意味着在监管劳工部方面拥有更大的话语权,该部门下设监管职场退休计划、健康保险和其他员工福利的机构。这可能意味着更加注重加强参保人保护,而减少对另类投资进入401(k)等计划的便利化关注。
Democratic control of Congress will also mean a bigger hand in oversight of the Department of Labor, which houses the agency that regulates workplace retirement plans, health insurance and other employee benefits. That could mean an increased focus on strengthening participant protections and less emphasis on easing the way for alternative investments into plans such as 401(k)s.
无论选举结果如何,理财规划师建议不要让情绪主导投资组合的调整。“当某人的政党或候选人落选时,未来会让人感觉比实际更具风险,恐惧会驱使人们做出重大决定:转为持有现金、提前领取社会保障金,或放弃既定计划,”Emerald Wealth创始人Eileen Olson表示。“但重大变革需要时间,往往需要立法程序,或分阶段实施、设有过渡条款,因此通常有时间进行调整。”
Regardless of the election outcome, financial planners advise against letting emotion drive portfolio changes. “When someone’s party or candidate loses, the future can feel riskier than it is, and fear drives big decisions: moving to cash, claiming Social Security early or abandoning a plan,” said Eileen Olson, founder of Emerald Wealth. “But big changes take time, require legislation or are often phased in or grandfathered, so there is usually time to adjust.”
市场倾向于青睐分裂政府,标普500指数周三上涨1.6%,投资者看好国会与白宫分属不同党派的前景。历史表明这种乐观有据可依。追溯至1950年,无论哪个党派获胜,标普500指数在每次中期选举后的12个月里均录得正收益。
Markets tend to like divided government, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% Wednesday, as investors embraced the prospect of a split between Congress and the White House. History suggests that optimism is warranted. Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered positive returns in the 12 months following every midterm election, regardless of which party won.
投资者可能更明显地感受到差异的是个别板块,特别是人工智能(AI)领域。随着民主党在州层面和华盛顿掌权,数据中心建设项目可能面临更严格的监管。
Where investors may notice a bigger difference is in individual sectors, specifically in AI. Data-center buildouts may be in for greater oversight as Democrats take control in states and in Washington.
Hightower Signature Wealth董事总经理Omar Qureshi表示,更严格的监管并不意味着所有AI股票都是输家。业务高度依赖建设更多数据中心的公司——包括半导体制造商、电力设备供应商和新型云服务商(出租AI算力的提供商)——可能面临更大压力。随着新项目建设难度加大,已获得电力容量的现有数据中心可能变得更具价值。Qureshi还看到资金可能转向微软、Alphabet和亚马逊等成熟科技巨头,这些公司能从AI中获利,而不必完全依赖日益加速的基础设施建设。
Tougher oversight doesn’t make all AI stocks losers, said Omar Qureshi, managing director at Hightower Signature Wealth. Companies whose fortunes depend heavily on building more data centers — including semiconductor manufacturers, power-equipment suppliers and neocloud providers, which rent out AI computing capacity— could face more pressure. Existing data centers with secured power capacity may become more valuable as new projects get harder to build. Qureshi also sees a potential shift toward established technology companies such as Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. that can make money from AI without relying solely on an ever-faster infrastructure buildout.
在医疗保健领域,民主党为保护医疗补助计划和恢复《平价医疗法案》补贴所做的努力,可能会通过增加有保险患者的数量而使医院运营商受益;而重新施加的降低药价压力和收紧医疗保险优势计划规则的做法,则可能给制药商和保险公司带来压力,eToro全球市场策略师Lale Akoner表示。
In health care, Democratic efforts to protect Medicaid and restore Affordable Care Act subsidies could benefit hospital operators by increasing the number of insured patients, while renewed pressure to lower drug prices and tighten Medicare Advantage rules could weigh on drugmakers and insurers, said Lale Akoner, global market strategist at eToro.
在美国卷入与伊朗的战争后,汽油价格一度跃升至每加仑4美元以上,并基本维持在该水平,助推整体通胀走高。大选给石油市场带来了一些即时缓解,周三布伦特原油暴跌近9%,因为投资者押注民主党大胜将增加华盛顿结束冲突的压力。副总统JD·万斯本人将共和党失利归咎于这场战争,称选民希望战争结束。
Gas prices jumped above $4 a gallon after the US entered the war with Iran and have largely stayed there, helping push overall inflation higher. The election brought some immediate relief in oil markets, with Brent crude tumbling nearly 9% on Wednesday as investors bet the Democratic sweep would increase pressure on Washington to wind down the conflict. Vice President JD Vance himself blamed the war for Republicans’ losses, saying voters wanted it to end.
民主党无法单方面结束战争,但可以对白宫为五角大楼提出的1.5万亿美元预算请求进行抵制,并提议设立一个监督小组,负责调查与伊朗的战争。
Democrats can’t end the war on their own, but they can push back on the White House’s $1.5 trillion budget request for the Pentagon and propose an oversight panel to handle investigations into the war with Iran.
在中期选举前,汽油价格已开始小幅下滑。据省油应用程序GasBuddy数据,全国平均汽油价格较上周下跌12美分,至每加仑4.12美元。GasBuddy石油分析主管Patrick De Haan在社交媒体发文称,价格可能在一周内跌破4美元。
Gas prices began edging lower before the midterms. The national average gas price fell 12 cents to $4.12 a gallon from last week, according to GasBuddy, a fuel savings app. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a social media post that it could fall below $4 within a week.
其他家庭开支依然居高不下。9月消费者价格较上年同期上涨3.7%,涨幅高于8月的3.4%。民主党可能会挑战特朗普的贸易政策,因为关税是推高通胀的另一大因素。通过立法取消关税可能很困难,因为特朗普拥有否决权。
Other household costs remain high too. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. Democrats could challenge Trump’s trade policies, since tariffs are another big driver of inflation. Undoing tariffs with legislation could be tough since Trump has veto power.
Advisors Asset Management首席投资策略师Matt Lloyd预计物价将维持高位,并表示由于厄尔尼诺现象对天气和农作物状况的影响,食品价格也可能波动。
Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management, expects prices to remain elevated and said food prices could also be volatile due to El Niño’s effect on weather and crop conditions.
民主党在通往中期选举的道路上,将住房问题变成了强有力的动员口号。他们在国会两院获得的新多数席位,将赋予他们更大的权力来重塑联邦住房政策。但他们无法控制抵押贷款利率,目前利率已升至7%以上,这是短期内缓解住房负担能力的最大障碍。
Democrats turned housing into a powerful rallying cry on their way to the midterm elections. Their new majorities in both houses of Congress will give them more power to reshape federal housing policy. But they can’t control mortgage rates, now above 7% and the biggest obstacle to easing affordability anytime soon.

缓解住房危机的一些最大杠杆掌握在特朗普手中。他的政府可以寻求结束战争,战争助长了通胀担忧,从而维持高利率;并可撤销通过行政行动实施的关税。穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示,政府激进的移民政策也给严重依赖外籍建筑工人的建筑商带来了压力。
Some of the biggest levers to ease the housing crisis rest with Trump. His administration could seek to end the war, which is fueling inflation fears that are keeping rates high, and roll back tariffs imposed through executive action. The administration’s aggressive immigration policies are also putting pressure on builders who rely heavily on foreign-born construction workers, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.
赞迪说:“缓解住房负担危机最直接的办法就是结束战争。没有哪条确凿、稳操胜券的政策能解决这个问题。”国会通过了旨在增加住房供应的全面《21世纪住房法案》,但该法案需要数年才能见效。一些民主党人提出的首付援助提案会增加需求,而这反过来可能在供应有限的市场推高成本。但国家需要的是更多新建的、更负担得起的住房,这需要时间和明智的政策,宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院房地产教授苏珊·沃彻表示。
“The single most direct way to ease the housing affordability crisis is to end the war,” Zandi said. “There is no smoking gun, slam-dunk policy that is going to solve the problem.”The Congress passed its sweeping 21st Century Road to Housing Act designed to increase housing supply but it will take years to bear fruit. Down payment assistance proposals that some Democrats have floated would increase demand, which could in turn drive up costs in markets where supplies are limited. But what the country needs is more newly built homes that are more affordable, and that will take time and smart policy, said Susan Wachter, a real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
她说:“我们需要各级政府的集体行动来寻求解决方案。我们需要抵押贷款利率下降,以及更多负担得起的首套住房。”在佛罗里达州,选民批准了全面的财产税减免,将于1月1日生效。到2028年,住房评估价值的前25万美元将免征大部分财产税。该州本已免征个人所得税。
“We need collective action at all levels of government for a solution,” she said. “We need mortgage rates to go down and more affordable starter homes.”In Florida, voters approved sweeping property tax cuts that will begin taking effect Jan. 1. By 2028, the first $250,000 of a home's assessed value will be exempted from most property taxes. The state already has no income tax.