周二民主党在国会选举中大获全胜，其中的诸多讽刺之一在于，对大型石油公司而言，同样是这轮强劲的牛市行情，既带来了它们有史以来最赚钱的年份之一，也把权力交还给了那个常常致力于约束该行业的政党。
One of the many ironies of Tuesday’s Democratic sweep of Congress was that for Big Oil, the same bull energy market that delivered one of its most profitable years ever also returned power to the party that’s often bent on bringing the industry to heel.
尽管如此，美国石油学会总裁迈克·萨默斯——该国最顶级的石油游说人士——告诉我，他并不特别担心绿色反弹。部分原因是这股蓝色浪潮带来的更多是关注生活负担能力的温和派，而非聚焦气候议题的进步派：“我想我们只是选出了很多乔·曼钦和玛丽·兰德里欧，”他说，指的是两位曾为该行业发声的知名前民主党参议员。
Still, Mike Sommers, who as president of the American Petroleum Institute is the country’s top oil lobbyist, told me he’s not particularly worried about a green backlash. That’s in part because the blue wave carried many more affordability-minded moderates than climate-focused progressives: “I think we just elected a lot of Joe Manchins and Mary Landrieus,” he said, referring to a pair of well-known former Democratic senators who advocated for the industry.
萨默斯表示，特朗普政府与委内瑞拉的石油协议有可能成为监督听证会的目标。民主党虽然无法直接控制美国国家安全战略，但也可以动用其在预算和人事确认方面的权力，就与伊朗的协议向美国总统唐纳德·特朗普施压，而这样的协议会压低油价。
Sommers said it’s possible that the Trump administration’s oil deal with Venezuela becomes a target for oversight hearings. Democrats, while not able to directly control US national security strategy, can also flex their powers over the budget and personnel confirmations to pressure US President Donald Trump on a deal with Iran, which would push oil prices down.
但除此之外，实际上国会几乎没有什么办法能伤害石油行业；更实质性的行动往往来自行政部门，比如前美国总统乔·拜登对液化天然气（LNG）终端的冻结。在持续的炼油产能紧张和人工智能用电热潮之下，任何看似会将分子（指油气分子）从市场上移除的立法或预算提案都不太可能走远，行业领袖似乎已准备好咽下这口气：“我们是来服务的，”得克萨斯州钻探商亨特能源首席执行官亨特·亨特在阿布扎比告诉我。
But apart from that, in practice there’s not a whole lot that Congress can do to hurt the oil industry; the more tangible actions tend to come from the executive branch, like former US President Joe Biden’s freeze on LNG terminals. Between an ongoing refinery crunch and the AI power rush, any legislative or budget proposal that appears to take molecules off the market isn’t likely to go far, and industry leaders appear ready to swallow their pride: “We’re here to serve,” Hunter Hunt, CEO of Texas driller Hunt Energy, told me in Abu Dhabi.
“我们会尽力调整。”索默斯急切地希望看到目前正等待参议院批准的许可改革法案——该法案将为各类能源项目提供巨大助力——在民主党于1月接管多数党席位前获得通过。参议院定于周一就该法案是否提交全院表决进行投票，一些进步派可能会试图破坏这一投票，以争取一个更有利于可再生能源的协议。但正如我的同事所报道的，民主党领袖与白宫之间的恶劣关系意味着最可能的结果是根本达成不了任何协议。
“We’ll adjust as best we can.”Sommers is anxious to see the permitting reform bill currently awaiting approval in the Senate, which would give a major boost to energy projects of all stripes, passed before Democrats take their majority seats in January. The Senate is due to vote on Monday about whether to bring it to the floor for passage, a vote that some progressives may try to undermine, targeting a more renewables-friendly deal. But the toxic relationship between Democratic leaders and the White House, as my colleagues reported, means the more likely outcome is no deal at all.
与此同时，本周在阿布扎比国际石油展（ADIPEC）展台上的“小油企”高管们对选举结果并不兴奋，但也并未真正感到担忧。“石油将生存下去，”休斯顿龙产品公司首席执行官汤姆·因曼说道，该公司生产水力压裂泵等设备。“民主党以前试图关闭我们。但卖石油仍然非常容易。”
Meanwhile, executives from “Little Oil” companies on the tradeshow floor at ADIPEC this week weren’t thrilled by the election outcome, but not really sweating it either. “Oil will survive,” said Tom Inman, whose Houston company Dragon Products makes pumps and other fracking gear. “Democrats have tried to shut us down before. But it’s still very easy to sell oil.”