萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克勒因让萨尔瓦多变得更安全而享誉全球——尽管方式令人深感棘手。拉丁美洲各国领导人纷至沓来，参观他关押数千名被指控为帮派成员男子的超级监狱，这些人往往未经正当法律程序即被拘押。即便是国内批评者也承认，他的大规模抓捕行动改善了大多数人的日常生活。但如今布克勒想走得更远。自10月22日起，他已向饱受帮派蹂躏的海地部署了2000多名萨尔瓦多士兵。他用海地克里奥尔语警告当地帮派，他能“彻底消灭你们”。
President Nayib Bukele has gained fame around the world for making El Salvador safer—albeit in a deeply vexing way. Leaders from Latin America trek to see the mega-prison in which he has locked up thousands of men accused of being in gangs, often without due process. Even domestic critics acknowledge that his round-ups have improved everyday life for most people. But now Mr Bukele wants to go further. Since October 22nd he has deployed over 2,000 Salvadoran soldiers to gang-ridden Haiti. He has warned its gangs (in Haitian Creole) that he can “finish with you too”.
自2021年海地上一位民选总统若韦尔·莫伊兹在卧室遭刺杀以来，海地陷入了令人发指的混乱。帮派控制了首都太子港的大部分地区以及周边一些区域。至少1.6万名海地人在动荡中丧生；150万人流离失所（见图表）。两年前，布克勒曾夸口说他能解决这团乱麻。
Haiti has slumped into appalling chaos since its last elected president, Jovenel Moïse, was assassinated in his bedroom in 2021. Gangs control most of the capital, Port-au-Prince, as well as some areas outside it. At least 16,000 Haitians have been killed during the anarchy; 1.5m have been displaced (see chart). Two years ago Mr Bukele boasted that he could sort the mess out.
一个借口于10月18日出现：四名作为联合国支持的“打击帮派部队”（GSF）一部分在海地服役的萨尔瓦多航空技术人员遭伏击并失踪。尽管他们极有可能已遇害——据称是萨尔瓦多人遗体的尸体于10月24日被移交检测——但布克勒称他正在发起一项营救任务。考虑到他此前对海地的言论以及派遣的兵力规模，鲜有人相信寻找失踪战友是他的唯一目的。目前萨尔瓦多在海地的兵力已超过所有随“打击帮派部队”服役的士兵总数，后者来自包括乍得和危地马拉在内的六个国家。
A pretext emerged on October 18th when four Salvadoran aviation technicians serving in Haiti as part of a UN-backed “Gang Suppression Force” (GSF) were ambushed and disappeared. Although they are probably dead—bodies purported to be those of the Salvadorans were handed over for testing on October 24th—Mr Bukele says he is mounting a rescue mission. Few believe that finding lost comrades is his sole aim, given what he has said about Haiti before, and the number of men he has sent. The Salvadoran force in Haiti now outnumbers all the soldiers serving with the GSF, who are drawn from six countries including Chad and Guatemala.
布克勒的此次行动标志着多年来美洲地区在联合国任务授权范围之外、向一国部署外国军队的最大规模行动。此举诸多细节扑朔迷离，不仅是其野心的规模。2024年，在推测干预的可能性时，布克勒曾表示，他需要联合国决议、海地同意，并由对方承担费用。
Mr Bukele’s operation marks the largest deployment of foreign troops to a country in the Americas, outside the remit of a UN mission, in many years. Much about it is murky, not just the scale of his ambitions. In 2024, speculating on the possibility of intervening, Mr Bukele said he would need a resolution from the UN, along with Haiti’s consent, and for costs to be covered.
这些先决条件中只有一个明确具备。10月28日，即萨尔瓦多军队开始抵达六天后，海地政府表示已授权该部署（协议条款未公开）。美国似乎也表示了默许。据报道，特朗普在一次电话通话中对布克勒说：“你必须做你必须做的事。”部分萨尔瓦多军人乘坐美军军用飞机抵达。包括哥伦比亚和海地邻国多米尼加共和国在内的国家也承诺提供后勤支持——理由是它们共同属于“美洲盾牌”，这是一个承诺与特朗普合作打击该地区帮派的国家集团。
Only one of these preconditions is clearly in place. On October 28th, six days after Salvadoran troops started to arrive, Haiti’s government said it had authorised the deployment (the terms of the agreement are not public). The United States also appears to have given a nod. Donald Trump is reported to have told Mr Bukele, during a phone call, “You have to do what you have to do.”Some Salvadoran troops flew in on an American military plane. Countries including Colombia and Haiti’s neighbour, the Dominican Republic, have also pledged logistical support—citing their joint membership of the “Shield of the Americas”, a group of countries that have promised to work with Mr Trump to combat gangs in the region.
布克勒称，萨尔瓦多承担了此次行动至少90%的费用。但有人对此表示怀疑，猜测是否涉及美国资金。美国智库“拉美华盛顿办公室”的亚当·艾萨克森表示，向一个没有基础设施、甚至连水喝了都会生病的国家部署2000名士兵，成本极高。
Mr Bukele says El Salvador is paying at least 90% of the operation’s expenses. But some doubt this can be true; they wonder if money from the United States is involved. Deploying 2,000 soldiers to a country with no infrastructure, where even the water will make you sick, is extremely expensive, says Adam Isacson of the Washington Office on Latin America, a think-tank in the United States.
联合国证实，萨尔瓦多军人并非在多国安全支援任务（GSF）的授权范围内行动。（据报道，布克勒在派遣其率领的分遣队指挥官前，将其晋升为三星上将，或许是为了让其军衔高于领导联合国团队的蒙古籍两星少将。）联合国海地人权问题专家威廉·奥尼尔表示，此次部署可能造成“协调行动的混乱和挑战，以及对任何可能违反国际法行为追责的困难”。华盛顿另一智库“经济与政策研究中心”的杰克·约翰斯顿称，这可能是多国安全支援任务走向终结的开端。
The UN confirms the Salvadorans are not working within the remit of the GSF. (Mr Bukele reportedly promoted the general in charge of his contingent to three stars before dispatching him, perhaps so he outranked the two-star Mongolian general leading the UN team.) The deployment risks creating “confusion and challenges for co-ordinating operations and for determining accountability for any possible violations of international law”, says William O’Neill, the UN’s expert on human rights in Haiti. It could be the beginning of the end for the GSF, says Jake Johnston of the Centre for Economic and Policy Research, another Washington think-tank.
布克莱能取得什么成就？“他可能会因此发几条推文，发些爆炸的视频，”伊萨克森说。短期部署可能会给萨尔瓦多人留下深刻印象。但至少有些人认为，布克莱能从长远上让海地更安全。萨尔瓦多安全分析师路易斯·孔特拉斯认为，帮派不是士兵的对手。“任何军队都能做到，”他说，不过可能需要一段时间。
What might Mr Bukele achieve? “He may get some tweets out of this; videos of stuff that goes boom,” says Mr Isacson. A brief deployment may impress Salvadorans. But at least some people believe Mr Bukele could make Haiti safer in the long term. Luis Contreras, a Salvadoran security analyst, thinks the gangs are no match for soldiers. “Any army could do it,” though it might take a while, he says.
海地的情况极其绝望（1200万人口中有一半面临严重饥饿），因此该地区许多人欢迎布克莱尝试。前海地国防部长让·沃尔纳德·多尔内瓦尔说，海地人必须“务实”。“我们不能仅仅因为担心附带损害而袖手旁观，而帮派一直在让民众创伤，”他说。布克莱铁腕的名声可能会吓唬帮派领袖进入谈判桌。
Haiti’s situation is so desperate (half the population of 12m suffer acute hunger) that many in the region welcome Mr Bukele having a go. Haitians have to be “pragmatic”, says Jean Walnard Dorneval, a former Haitian defence minister. “We cannot simply sit idly by for fear of collateral damage while gangs have been traumatising the population.”There is a chance that Mr Bukele’s iron-fist reputation may scare gang leaders into negotiating.
然而，陷入泥潭的风险巨大。布克莱可能低估了海地的问题：10月29日，他坚称萨尔瓦多“经历过一场比海地人民目前所承受的更加可怕的噩梦”。平定萨尔瓦多既需要严厉的执法，也需要与帮派谈判。一支庞大的军队、警察部队和一个运作良好的行政机构能够逮捕数万名男子。而在海地，帮派控制领土、征收税收，并拥有军用级武器。布克莱“不了解地形和战术环境，”前五角大楼官员弗兰克·莫拉说。
Yet the risks of getting bogged down are huge. Mr Bukele may underestimate Haiti’s problems: on October 29th he insisted that El Salvador “lived through a nightmare that was even more horrific than what the Haitian people are enduring right now”. Pacifying El Salvador required both tough law enforcement and negotiations with gangs. A large army, police force and a functioning administration were able to round up tens of thousands of men. In Haiti the gangs govern territory, levy taxes and hold military-grade weapons. Mr Bukele “does not know the terrain and tactical environment”, says Frank Mora, a former Pentagon official.
担忧在于，如果布凯莱在海地的野心很大，可能会采取焦土策略，造成大量平民伤亡。人权组织已经报告称，萨尔瓦多人失踪地区的伤亡人数有所增加。联合国在海地的部队行动谨慎，其士兵很少离开基地。许多观察人士，包括特朗普政府内部的人，嘲笑其软弱：他们认为海地的苦难正被“一群不愿使用足够武力来展示谁才是老大的懦夫和失败者”所拖延，约翰斯顿先生说。他们的确定性很快可能受到考验。
The worry, if Mr Bukele’s ambitions in Haiti turn out to be large, is of a scorched-earth strategy that kills a lot of civilians. Human-rights groups are already reporting increased casualties in the area where the Salvadorans went missing. The UN force in Haiti operates cautiously; its troops rarely leave their base. Many observers, including in the Trump administration, mock its weakness: they think Haiti’s agonies are being drawn out by a “bunch of ninnies and losers not willing to use enough force to show who is boss”, says Mr Johnston. Their certainty may soon be put to the test.