巴西利亚，11月5日电 - 巴西央行在总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦连任后决定暂停一连串降息，促使一些经济学家押注借贷成本将维持在当前高位，直至2028年晚些时候。
BRASILIA, Nov 5 - The Brazilian central bank’s decision to halt a run of interest rate cuts after the reelection of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has prompted some economists to bet on borrowing costs staying at the current elevated level until as late as 2028.
该国央行周三将基准利率维持在13.75%，为全球最高实际利率之一，因其上调了通胀预期，理由是对卢拉如何应对紧张的公共财政以及伊朗战争对能源价格的影响存在不确定性。这些担忧超过了拉美最大经济体出现比预期更急剧放缓的迹象。
The country’s central bank on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate at 13.75%, one of the highest real rates in the world, as it raised its inflation forecast amid uncertainties on how Lula will tackle stretched public finances as well as the Iran war’s impact on energy prices. Those concerns outweighed signs of a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in Latin America’s largest economy.
在央行做出决定后，高盛预测利率将至少维持不变至2028年第二季度。其他分析师预测2027年底前不会有变化。
Following the central bank’s decision, Goldman Sachs forecast that rates will stay unchanged until at least the second quarter of 2028. Other analysts predict no change before the end of 2027.
高盛经济学家阿尔贝托·拉莫斯在一份报告中写道：“我们认为2028年仅有有限的降息空间，尽管对增长和政策前景（特别是财政方面）存在相当大的不确定性，使得放松的幅度（如果有的话）难以评估。”
"We see room for only limited cuts in 2028 although considerable uncertainty over the growth and policy outlook (fiscal in particular) makes the scope for easing, if any at all, difficult to assess," Alberto Ramos, a Goldman Sachs economist, wrote in a note.
卢拉胜选引发前景重估 卢拉在10月25日总统决选中意外战胜右翼挑战者弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗，引发雷亚尔大幅贬值和长期借贷成本飙升。
LULA VICTORY PROMPTS OUTLOOK RETHINK Lula’s surprise victory over right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro in an October 25 presidential runoff election has sparked a sharp weakening of the real and a surge in long-term borrowing costs.
这也凸显了对通胀和财政政策担忧的程度，这位左翼总统尚未提名下一任财政部长，也未说明如何在竞选期间承诺增加社会支出后修复公共财政。
It also highlighted the scale of concerns over inflation and fiscal policy, with the leftist president yet to name his next finance minister or say how he will repair public finances after promising more social spending during his election campaign.
强制性支出快速增长加剧了财政担忧，迫使投资者要求更高的风险溢价来购买巴西政府债务。在这种动态的压力下，巴西政府债务在卢拉现任总统任期内上升了10个百分点以上，达到国内生产总值的82.9%。
Rapidly rising mandatory spending has fueled fiscal concerns and pushed investors to demand higher risk premiums to buy Brazilian government debt. Pressured by this dynamic, Brazil’s gross debt rose by more than 10 percentage points during Lula’s current presidential term, to 82.9% of gross domestic product.
投资平台XP和巴西银行伊塔乌的分析师预计，利率将在2027年全年维持在当前水平。
Analysts at investment platform XP and Itau, a Brazilian bank, expect rates to remain at their current level throughout 2027.
伊塔乌首席经济学家迪奥戈·吉伦曾于去年之前担任央行经济政策总监，他表示，央行货币政策委员会（Copom）宣布暂停降息，反映出对巴西宏观经济前景的大幅重新评估。
Diogo Guillen, Itau’s chief economist, who until last year was the central bank’s economic policy director, said the rate-cut pause announced by Copom, the central bank’s monetary policy committee, reflected a sharp reassessment of Brazil’s macroeconomic outlook.
在大选决选前，投资者预期巴西央行将延续今年3月开始的降息周期。
Before the election runoff, investors expected Brazil’s central bank to continue the run of rate cuts it began in March.
巴西收益率曲线目前隐含明年前三次货币政策会议均将加息25个基点。
Brazil’s yield curve now implies 25-basis-point hikes at each of the first three monetary policy meetings next year.
上周，伊塔乌将2027年GDP增长预期从1.2%下调至0.5%，理由是金融条件收紧，同时将通胀预期从4.6%上调至6.1%。央行的官方通胀目标为3%。
Last week, Itau slashed its 2027 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.2%, citing tighter financial conditions, while raising its inflation projection to 6.1% from 4.6%. The central bank has an official 3% inflation target.
花旗指出，考虑到央行周三的政策声明已将货币政策描述为“实质性紧缩”，尽管市场定价显示明年将加息，但决策者似乎认为目前没有立即开启紧缩周期的必要。
Noting that the central bank’s policy statement on Wednesday described monetary policy as already "substantially contractionary," Citi said policymakers appear to see no immediate need to begin a tightening cycle despite market pricing showing rate increases in the coming year.
一些分析师表示，如果已承诺财政纪律的卢拉提供其财政政策路线的细节，前景可能再次发生变化。
Some analysts said the outlook could change once again if Lula, who has said he is committed to fiscal discipline, offers details on his fiscal policy approach.
花旗在一份报告中表示：“以财政基本面强化为条件，我们仍认为Copom有空间在2027年下半年恢复渐进式降息周期，尽管我们承认这一前景高度取决于未来几个月通胀预期的再锚定过程。”
"Conditional on the strengthening of fiscal fundamentals, we still see room for Copom to resume a gradual interest rate cutting cycle in the second half of 2027, although we recognize that this outlook is highly dependent on the re-anchoring process of inflation expectations in the coming months," Citi said in a report.
央行将相关18个月展望期内的通胀预测从9月的3.1%上调至3.5%，理由是近期的供给冲击及其每周Focus经济学家调查中隐含的利率路径。
The central bank raised its inflation forecast for the relevant 18-month horizon to 3.5%, from 3.1% in September, citing recent supply shocks and the rate path embedded in its weekly Focus survey of economists.
该调查基于上周五收集的数据，已显示通胀预期上升、增长预期走弱，但仍指向进一步降低借贷成本，预计央行基准塞利克利率（Selic）明年底将达到 12.5%。
That survey, based on data collected last Friday, already showed higher inflation and weaker growth expectations, but it still pointed to further cuts to borrowing costs, with the central bank’s benchmark Selic rate ending next year at 12.5%.
Warren Investimentos 宏观策略主管路易斯·费利佩·维塔尔表示，未来的 Focus 调查可能反映出更多关于维持借贷成本不变更长时间的预测，因为许多经济学家在卢拉连任后、最新央行决议前仍在修正其预测。他说：“情势已不再与降息相容。”
Luis Felipe Vital, head of macro strategy at Warren Investimentos, said future Focus surveys are likely to reflect more forecasts for an extended hold in borrowing costs, as many economists were still revising their projections after Lula’s reelection and before the latest central bank decision. "The scenario is no longer compatible with interest rate cuts," he said.