美国中期选举为华盛顿的剧变奠定了基础，全球油价随之下跌，这可能很快会让加油站油价回落。
The U.S. midterm elections lay the foundations for a dramatic change in Washington, which saw global oil prices fall in response, and that could soon lead to relief at gas pumps.
周三，在中期选举结果显示民主党取得决定性胜利后的几小时内，油价大幅下跌。周四，随着中东地区局势紧张升级，油价略微回升，但截至发稿时，油价仍远低于中期选举前的水平。
Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday in the hours after the midterm results revealed a decisive win for the Democrats. Prices did tick back up slightly on Thursday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East region, but oil prices as of publication remain well below where they were before the midterm elections.
GasBuddy石油分析主管帕特里克·德·汉恩表示：“自春季以来一直处于高位的油价现在更接近低位区间，这可能会提供一些实质性的缓解。”
“Oil prices that had been closer to the highest side since spring are now closer to the lower side of that, and that could provide some meaningful relief,” says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
“石油市场只是在推测总统现在可能面临的压力，因为共和党在中期选举中表现非常糟糕。”在一场大规模的“蓝色浪潮”中，民主党将于1月开始控制美国众议院和参议院，这对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普及其发动的伊朗战争和贸易战引发的生活成本飙升提出了尖锐的谴责。
“Oil markets are just merely speculating on the pressure now that the president is likely going to feel given the fact that Republicans fared very poorly in the midterms.”The Democratic Party will take control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate starting in January after a massive blue wave that offered a sharp rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump and the soaring cost of living spurred by his war in Iran and his trade wars.
截至发稿时，国际油价基准布伦特原油为每桶97美元，低于周二早些时候民主党被广泛预测将赢得美国国会控制权前的约102美元。与此同时，美国油价基准西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）约为90美元，低于约96美元。
International oil, known as Brent crude, was US$97 a barrel as of publication, down from about $102 early Tuesday morning just before Democrats were widely projected to win control of the U.S. Congress. Meanwhile, U.S. oil, known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was about $90, down from about $96.
本周迄今，布伦特原油和WTI原油价格分别下跌了约20%和10%，如果这种跌势持续到周五收盘，将创下自2020年4月以来最大的单周跌幅。
So far this week, Brent and WTI prices have fallen about 20 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, and if sustained through to the end of Friday, it would make for the largest weekly drop in oil prices since April 2020.
由美国和以色列共同努力引发的伊朗战争导致汽油价格上涨，这是选民在选举中主要的痛点之一。
Higher gas prices amid the Iran war, which was sparked by a joint effort between the U.S. and Israel, was one of the main sticking points for voters in the elections.
“至于能否解决则是另一回事，但我认为目前石油市场正在根据美国人昨天投票所支持的叙事重新计算风险。” 每日获取国家新闻 石油价格主要由供需预期决定，如果出现重大地缘政治冲突并给全球供应水平增加风险，就像伊朗战争那样，价格通常会上涨。全球油价下跌通常会导致加油站汽油价格下降，加拿大也不例外。
“Whether it gets solved or not is another question, but I think for now, oil markets are recalculating the risk based on the narrative that Americans voted for yesterday.”Get daily National news The price of oil is determined mostly on expectations for supply and demand, and if there’s significant geopolitical conflict that adds risk to global supply levels, like with the Iran war, then prices typically rise. Falling global oil prices typically result in lower prices for gasoline at pumps, including in Canada.
德汉表示，加拿大人应该预期加油站价格会有所下降，但由于特朗普在伊朗的战争持续产生影响，摧毁了石油基础设施，并导致霍尔木兹海峡出现严重航运延误，价格在一段时间内仍将相对较高。
De Haan says Canadians should expect to see somewhat lower prices at pumps, but they will still be relatively high for a while because of the continued effects of Trump’s war in Iran, which has destroyed oil infrastructure and caused significant shipping delays through the Strait of Hormuz.
他说：“在未来一两周，甚至可能更久，我们应该会看到汽油价格下跌大约 5 到 20 加分/升，柴油可能下跌 10 到 20 加分/升。”
“In the next week or two, and maybe beyond that, we should see prices dip somewhere in the ballpark of five to 20 cents a litre on gasoline, maybe diesel by 10 to 20 cents a litre,” he says.
“价格仍将维持高位。不会立即暴跌回之前的水平。” 这种降幅可能意味着加拿大人加满一箱 50 升汽油最多能省下约 10 加元。
“Prices are still going to be elevated. They’re not going to immediately crater down to their previous level.”That kind of discount could mean Canadians will save up to about $10 to fill a 50 litre gas tank.
德汉还表示，汽油价格正经历季节性转换，因为一些炼油厂结束了可能导致产能下降的计划维护期。这意味着加拿大部分地区（如草原省份）的价格可能会下降，不仅源于中期选举结果，还因为这些炼油厂正逐步恢复正常产量水平。尽管如此，消费者获得缓解不会很快，局势依然动荡。
De Haan also says gas prices are going through a seasonal shift as some oil refineries wrap up a scheduled maintenance period that can lead to a drop in capacity. This means there could be lower prices for some parts of Canada, like the Prairies, not only from the midterm results but also because these refineries are slowly getting back to their normal output levels. Still, any relief for consumers won’t happen quickly and the situation remains volatile.
伊朗周四报告称，在至关重要的霍尔木兹海峡航道又有三艘油轮受损，这清楚地表明，只要海湾战争不解决，航运将继续处于险境之中。
Iran reported three more tankers had been damaged in the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping channel on Thursday, making clear that shipping would remain in peril as long as the war in the Gulf is unresolved.
伊朗官员自上周起一直在与卡塔尔调解人会晤，讨论结束敌对行动的提议。但双方均未宣布在迄今阻碍达成任何和平协议的主要问题上取得突破。
Iranian officials have been meeting with Qatari mediators since last week to discuss proposals to end the hostilities. But neither side has announced any breakthroughs on the major issues that have prevented any peace agreement so far.
与此同时，海湾地区油轮遇袭事件仍维持在接近纪录的高位。英国海事安全机构英国海事贸易行动办公室（UKMTO）称，自周日以来，至少有五艘船只报告遇袭，这一速率与10月大致相当时，该机构当时表示当月有35艘船只遭袭，为战争爆发以来单月最高。
Meanwhile, attacks on tankers in the Gulf are still running close to a record pace. At least five vessels have reported incidents since Sunday, according to UK maritime security agency UKMTO, around the same rate as in October when the agency said 35 vessels were hit, the most of any month of the war.
英国海事贸易行动办公室报告称，一艘船只于周三晚间遭两枚不明飞行物击中。
The UKMTO reported that a vessel had been struck by two unidentified projectiles late on Wednesday.
伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队平时不承认向商船开火，但称若无德黑兰同意，该航道即不安全。该部队表示，周四有两艘油轮触雷，另一艘起火。
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, who do not typically acknowledge firing on merchant ships but say the transit route is unsafe without Tehran’s consent, said two tankers had struck naval mines and another had caught fire on Thursday.
伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·穆吉塔巴·哈梅内伊周三表示，不应对美国抱有“哪怕最轻微的屈服倾向”，他称无论哪个党派执政，美国都将继续对伊朗保持敌对态度。
On Wednesday Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said there should not be “even the slightest inclination towards submission” to the United States, which he said would remain hostile towards Iran no matter which party was in power.
因此，加拿大人短期内或许能看到一些缓解，但只要伊朗战争持续助长石油市场波动，这种缓解可能难以持续。
So Canadians may see some relief in the short term, but as long as the Iran war continues to stoke volatility in oil markets, that relief may not be sustainable.
“美国方面更乐观，但这并不意味着局势已彻底结束。局势依然活跃，取决于总统的下一步举措，将决定油价是继续下跌，还是反弹回升。”——本文参考了路透社报道
“There’s more optimism in the States, but that doesn’t definitively mean that the situation is over. It’s still active, and depending on the president’s next move, will determine if oil prices keep going down or if they reverse and go back up.”– with files from Reuters