世界局势错综复杂，经济学可以提供帮助。民主党现在有望以巨大优势控制国会——而他们成功的一个关键驱动力，是选民对伊朗战争推高燃油成本的愤怒。
The world is confusing. Economics can help Democrats are now poised to take control of Congress by wide margins — and a critical driver of their success has been voter fury about how the war in Iran has driven up the cost of fuel.
战争爆发前，全球约五分之一的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。随着战争扼杀了这条水道，油价随之上涨：布伦特原油价格在2月下旬约为每桶70美元，随后数月徘徊在110美元左右，目前接近95美元。
Before the war, about one fifth of the world's oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. As the war throttled that waterway, the price of oil rose: A barrel of Brent crude cost about $70 in late February, spent months hovering around the $110 mark, and is now close to $95.
这推高了所有由原油提炼产品的价格。根据AAA（美国汽车协会）数据，一加仑汽油的平均价格为4.12美元——比一年前高出约1美元。柴油价格在9月创下每加仑6.52美元的历史新高，虽然此后略有回落，但每加仑仍比去年同期高出约2.50美元。
That's driven up the price of everything that's refined from crude. A gallon of gas costs $4.12 on average — about $1 higher than a year ago. The price of diesel hit a record high in September at $6.52, and while it's fallen a bit since then, a gallon remains about $2.50 higher than this time last year, according to AAA.
这些飙升的价格帮助主要石油公司在过去两个季度赚取了巨额利润，同时让加油站的燃油价格对司机来说高得难以接受，并推高了一个严重依赖卡车运输的国家几乎所有商品的价格。
These soaring prices helped major oil companies rake in huge profits over the past two quarters, while making the cost of fuel at the pump uncomfortably high for drivers, and boosting the price of nearly everything in a nation that is heavily reliant on trucking.
那么，既然中期选举结果已出，司机们能否很快看到汽油和柴油价格下降？专家表示：别急。原因如下。民主党能做什么？目前什么也做不了——新一届国会成员要等到1月才会宣誓就职。
So now that the midterm results are in, could drivers see lower gasoline and diesel prices anytime soon? Not so fast, experts say. Here's why. What could Democrats do? Nothing yet — members of the new Congress won't be sworn in until January.
即便他们就职后，美国立法者直接影响油价的权力也有限，因为油价由复杂的全球市场决定。
And once they are seated, U.S. legislators have limited powers to directly affect the price of oil, which is dictated by a complex global market.
在选举前夕，联邦政府为降低燃油价格采取的大多数行动都来自白宫，而非国会。为了避免本党在选举中失利，特朗普总统试图通过放宽柴油联邦规定来降低柴油成本，这种柴油通常用于农业。他还宣布达成一项协议，通过暂时解除制裁，将更多俄罗斯柴油引入包括美国在内的全球市场。这两项措施都未能显著扭转局面。
In the run-up to the election, most of the actions taken by the federal government to lower fuel prices came through the White House, not Congress. Hoping to stave off losses for his party, President Trump tried to ease the cost of diesel by loosening federal rules on dyed diesel, which is normally used for farming. He also announced a deal that would bring more Russian diesel to global markets, including the U.S., by temporarily lifting sanctions. Neither of these did much to move the needle.
但新一届国会民主党将拥有推动总统结束伊朗战争的权力，部分方式是让授权新的战争开支变得更加困难。参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默（民主党-纽约州）周三对记者表示，民主党决心结束战争并降低生活成本，称“救济即将到来”。“统一的民主党国会能做的是让升级付出更大的代价：两院都可以通过决议，在战争拨款上附加条件，并扣留关键官员的提名确认，”Rystad Energy首席经济学家Claudio Galimberti在致媒体的市场报告中写道。
But the new Congressional Democrats will have the power to push the president to end the war in Iran, in part by making it harder to authorize new war spending. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D.-NY) told reporters on Wednesday that Democrats are intent on ending the war and bringing down the cost of living, saying that "relief is on the way." "What a unified Democratic Congress can do is make escalation considerably more costly: both chambers can pass resolutions, attach conditions to war spending and hold back confirmations of key officials," Claudio Galimberti, chief economist of Rystad Energy, wrote in a market note to the media.
尽管如此，总统仍拥有对立法的否决权以及行政权力。“特朗普总统仍保留对军事打击、封锁和制裁、许可证等事项的完全自由裁量权，”Rystad Energy地缘政治分析主管Jorge León在接受NPR采访时表示。
Still, the president has veto power over legislation, as well as executive powers. " President Trump still retains full discretionary authority over military strikes, over blockades and sanctions, licenses, and so on," said Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, in an interview with NPR.
特朗普关于想要结束还是升级战争发出了混合信号。在过去几周里，他在中期选举后警告海湾阿拉伯国家为新的军事行动做准备。美国于11月2日袭击了霍尔木兹海峡的格什姆岛，伊朗利用该岛发动自己的袭击。
Trump has sent mixed messages about whether he wants to end or escalate the war. In the past few weeks, he warned Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a new military campaign after the midterms. The U.S. struck Qeshm, an island in the Strait of Hormuz that Iran uses to launch its own strikes, on Nov. 2.
但在选举之夜，特朗普告诉《纽约时报》，他知道选民对汽油价格不满。第二天，随着选举惨败的程度变得清晰，副总统JD Vance在社交媒体上发帖：“我们输掉选举的原因是战争。”如果战争结束，价格何时会下跌？
But on election night, Trump told The New York Times that he knew voters were unhappy about gas prices. And the next day, as the extent of the election rout became clear, Vice President JD Vance posted on social media: "The reason we lost is the war." If the war ends, when would prices fall?
Dow Jones Energy炼油和石油市场执行总监Jaime Brito表示，如果达成结束战争的协议，交易员可能会非常兴奋。Brito说，他们可能会寻找伊朗和美国双方正式宣布海峡重新开放、双方都在撤回该地区军事存在的信号。
Jaime Brito, executive director of refining and oil markets for Dow Jones Energy, says if there's a deal to end the war, traders could be very excited. Brito said they might look for formal announcements from both Iran and the U.S. that the strait is reopening, and that both sides are pulling back their military presence in the area.
如果市场交易员确信和平将持续？“如果出现那种情况，我个人认为原油价格将立即下跌，你知道，每桶15美元、20美元，在宣布后的未来两三天内，”他说。
If market traders are convinced the peace will last? "If that scenario happens, then I personally see crude prices dropping, you know, $15, $20 [a barrel] immediately, in the next two, three days from the announcement," he said.
但要让汽油和柴油价格也下跌，石油必须重新开始流动。一直在绕行、避免经过霍尔木兹海峡的船只将不得不返回其出发点，然后恢复原本经过海峡的航线。莱昂指出，这可能导致交通拥堵。从那里开始，这些原油仍需经过炼制并进入市场。
But for gasoline and diesel prices to fall, too, oil would have to start moving again. Ships that have been running long, alternative routes to avoid passing through the Strait of Hormuz would have to return to their points of origin, and then resume their former routes through the strait. León pointed out, that could lead to traffic jams. From there, that crude will still need to be refined and make its way onto the market.
布里托表示，在最乐观的情况下，停火或达成协议宣布后，可能需要三个月，汽油和柴油价格才能回到战前水平。
In the most optimistic scenario, Brito said, it could take three months after a ceasefire or deal is announced for gasoline and diesel prices to hit their prewar levels.
莱昂认为，原油价格回到战前水平可能需要六个月左右，然后汽油和柴油价格还需要再过一个月或两个月才会随之下跌。但这假设一切顺利。他们两人都表示，过程中可能会出现波折，导致复苏时间线在协议宣布后长达一年。
León thinks it would take more like six months for the price of crude to hit its prewar level, and then another month or two for gasoline and diesel to follow. But that's assuming all goes well. And, both of them said, there could be hiccups along the way that stretch the recovery timeline out for up to a year after a deal is announced.
“我不想这么说，但是，你知道，昂贵的汽油价格可能成为新常态，”布里托说。
" I don't want to say this, but, you know, expensive gasoline prices could be a new normal," Brito said."
“X因素”第一个主要的X因素：乌克兰战争。如果乌克兰继续袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，柴油价格可能不会像汽油那样大幅下跌。这是因为俄罗斯的炼油厂通常向全球市场供应大量柴油。恢复霍尔木兹海峡的通行将有助于降低柴油价格——但可能需要更长时间才能回到战前水平，莱昂说。
The X factors The first big X factor: the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine continues attacking Russian refineries, the price of diesel may not drop as precipitously as gasoline might. That's because Russia's refineries normally bring much of the world's diesel to global markets. Resuming traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will help lower the price of diesel — but it may take longer to reach its prewar level, León said.
莱昂表示，其他情景可能会描绘出一幅不那么乐观的图景。美国炼油厂一直在90%以上的产能下运行——如果就在更多石油准备好投放市场的时刻，它们需要紧急维修怎么办？或者，尽管达成协议，敌对行动又重新爆发怎么办？
Other scenarios could make for a less rosy picture, León said. U.S. refineries have been running above 90% capacity — what if they need emergency maintenance just at the moment when there's more oil ready to bring to market? Or, what if hostilities restart again, despite a deal?
布里托表示赞同。他写道，在今年年底之前，理论上海峡可能发生新的袭击，“如果现任政府认为这是一个‘窗口期’，可以在新一届国会于1月就职前完成未竟之业。”还有一个因素在起作用：战争推高了在全球范围内运输石油本身的成本。
Brito agreed. Before the end of the year, there could theoretically be new attacks in the strait, he wrote, "if the current administration sees it as a 'window' to complete unfinished tasks before the new Congressional layout takes their seat in January." And there's also one more factor at play: The war has raised the price of moving oil itself around the world.
由于霍尔木兹海峡已封锁了很长时间，运费上涨；运油船不得不绕道避开海峡，航程变长，在此过程中消耗更多燃料。此外，为这些船只投保的保费也上涨了，因为绕道海峡的风险大大增加。
Since the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked off for so long, freight costs have gone up; ships carrying oil have had to skirt around the strait, take longer routes and use more fuel in the process. Plus, the price of insuring those ships has gone up, since transit around the strait has gotten so much riskier.
这意味着，即使是石油行业从事石油业务的成本也在增加。如果敌对行动持续且运费居高不下，可能会让布伦特原油价格在更长时间内维持高位。
That means that even the oil industry is paying more to be in the oil business. And if hostilities persist and those freight costs remain high, that could keep the price of Brent crude elevated for longer.
布里托写道：“归根结底，”若想指望价格回归常态，“你需要看到冲突彻底结束。”
"Bottom line," Brito wrote, for any hope of a return to normal prices, "you need to see a definitive end of the conflict."