年轻选民在周二的中期选举中大幅倒向民主党，这引发了新的疑问：共和党能否在美国30岁以下选民中建立持久的联盟。
Young voters swung so hard toward Democrats in Tuesday's midterms that it raises new doubts about whether Republicans can build a lasting coalition among Americans under 30.
重要性：特朗普在Z世代选民中（尤其是年轻男性）的成功，曾引发关于年轻一代向共和党倾斜的代际转变的讨论。周二的结果讲述了一个不同的故事。
Why it matters: Trump's success with Gen Z voters, especially young men fueled talk of a generational shift toward Republicans. Tuesday's results tell a different story.
数据说话：据塔夫茨大学公民学习与参与信息研究中心（CIRCLE）分析的全国民意研究中心（NORC）公民健康与选举项目的初步数据，周二估计有66%的18至29岁选民支持民主党众议院候选人，而支持共和党的为31%。
By the numbers: An estimated 66% of voters ages 18–29 backed Democratic House candidates Tuesday, compared with 31% for Republicans, according to Tufts University's CIRCLE which analyzed preliminary data from the NORC Civic Health & Elections Project.
- 这使民主党拥有35个百分点的优势，而2024年全国众议院出口民调中这一优势为14个百分点，当时年轻选民以56%对42%支持民主党。
• That's a 35-point Democratic advantage, compared with 14 points in the 2024 national House exit poll, when young voters favored Democrats 56%–42%.
- 根据爱迪生研究公司2024年出口民调和CIRCLE基于NORC数据的2026年更新分析，30岁以下男性对民主党的支持率从2024年的51%上升至2026年的59%。年轻女性的支持率则从61%攀升至70%。
• Democratic support among men under 30 rose from 51% in 2024 to 59% in 2026. Among young women, it climbed from 61% to 70%, according to 2024 exit polling by Edison Research and CIRCLE's updated 2026 analysis of NORC data.
- 根据SSRS民调，年轻白人选民以63%对34%支持民主党，而在2024年他们基本持平，为50%对48%。
• Young white voters favored Democrats 63%–34% in the SSRS survey, after splitting 50%–48% in 2024. State of play:
局势分析：选举日前最后几周的民调为共和党亮起了警示灯。
Polls flashed warning signs for Republicans in the final weeks before Election Day.
- 10月哈佛青年民调发现，表示肯定会去投票的18至29岁选民中，支持民主党的为63%，支持共和党的为26%。
• An October Harvard Youth Poll found voters ages 18–29 who said they would definitely vote favored Democrats 63%–26%.
- 仅有9%的年轻美国人表示国家正朝着正确的方向发展。
• Just 9% of young Americans said the country was headed in the right direction.
深度观察：根据初步的SSRS民调，民主党在主要的全州范围竞选中获得了年轻选民的压倒性支持。
Zoom in: Democrats drew overwhelming support from young voters in major statewide races, according to preliminary SSRS polling.
- 在得克萨斯州，76%的30岁以下选民支持民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科，73%支持民主党州长候选人吉娜·伊诺霍萨，据CIRCLE的州级分析。
• In Texas, 76% of voters under 30 supported Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, while 73% backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, according to CIRCLE's state analysis.
- 在佐治亚州，70%支持民主党州长候选人凯莎·兰斯·博特姆斯。在俄亥俄州，超过60%支持民主党的参议院和州长候选人。
• In Georgia, 70% backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms. More than 60% favored Democratic candidates for Senate and governor in Ohio.
- 在爱荷华州，2024年曾支持特朗普的年轻选民在2026年显著转离共和党参议员候选人阿什利·欣森，这是根据美联社选民投票数据得出的。民主党人乔什·图雷克赢得了参议员席位，而罗布·桑德赢得了州长职位。
• In Iowa, where young voters backed Trump in 2024, Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson lost significant ground with the group, according to AP Voter Poll data. Democrat Josh Turek won the Senate seat, while Rob Sand captured the governorship. What they're saying:
他们怎么说：“Z世代选民正在证明，他们不仅有能力决定选举结果，更能成为翻转国会两院的决定性因素，”由Z世代主导的选民外联组织“明日选民”执行董事圣地亚哥·梅耶在一份声明中说。
"Gen Z voters are proving that they have the power not just to decide races, but to be the decisive factor in flipping both chambers of Congress," Santiago Mayer, executive director of the Gen Z-led voter outreach organization Voters of Tomorrow, said in a statement.
- 该组织认为，其在爱荷华州的青年外联工作帮助民主党人克里斯蒂娜·博汉南、林赛·詹姆斯和莎拉·特龙·加里奥特赢得了美国众议院席位。
• The group credited its youth outreach in Iowa with helping Democrats Christina Bohannan, Lindsay James and Sarah Trone Garriott win their U.S. House races.
CIRCLE发现，79%的年轻黑人选民和71%的年轻拉丁裔选民支持民主党众议院候选人。
CIRCLE found 79% of young Black voters and 71% of young Latino voters backed Democratic House candidates.
注意事项：根据CIRCLE对NORC数据的分析，年轻选民在周二选民中的占比估计为11%，而2022年中期选举为12%。
Caveat: Young voters accounted for an estimated 11% of Tuesday's electorate, compared with 12% in the 2022 midterms, according to CIRCLE's analysis of NORC data.
- 这一较低的占比无法说明符合条件的年轻选民投票率是上升还是下降。即使整体选民规模扩大稀释了他们的比重，他们的实际投票人数也可能增加了。
• That smaller share doesn't tell us whether turnout among eligible young voters rose or fell. Their numbers could have grown even as a larger overall electorate reduced their
- 2024年和2026年采用的不同民调方法也使精确对比变得复杂。NORC和SSRS的调查得出了不同的民主党支持率估算。
• Different polling methods in 2024 and 2026 also complicate precise comparisons. The NORC and SSRS surveys produced different estimates of Democratic support.
但是：共和党并不一定失去了那些帮助特朗普在2024年获胜的年轻保守派选民。
Yes, but: Republicans haven't necessarily lost the young conservatives who helped Trump win in 2024.
- “更多共同点”组织此前的一项研究识别出一派更年轻的特朗普支持者，他们在性别角色和宗教问题上持有更强硬的观点。
• An earlier More in Common study identified a faction of younger Trump supporters embracing more hard-line views on gender roles and religion.
核心看点：这些调查无法告诉我们，是那些选民转换了党派，还是周二到场投票的年轻美国人群体构成发生了变化。
The bottom line: The surveys can't tell us whether those voters switched parties or a different mix of young Americans showed up Tuesday.