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中期选举中Z世代男性与共和党分道扬镳,大力倒向民主党Gen Z men split from GOP in midterms, and broke hard for Democrats

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周二是民主党的大胜之夜,而Z世代是重要原因。18至29岁的年轻选民大幅倒向民主党,其中包括年轻男性——他们曾是特朗普总统在2024年的重要选民群体。这些选民也是该党在得克萨斯州获胜的关键因素,该州记录了当晚一些最大的胜利。以下是详细情况。Z世代男性从特朗普转向民主党据AP VoteCast数据,特朗普在2024年赢得了56%的Z世代男性选票。

Tuesday was a big night for Democrats, and Gen Z was a big reason why. Young voters aged 18-29 broke hard for Democrats, including young men, who had been an important constituency for President Trump in 2024. The voters were also a big part of the winning formula for the party in Texas, where some of the biggest wins of the nights were recorded. Here’s a look at the details. Generation Z males jump from Trump to Dems Trump won 56 percent of Generation Z men in 2024, per AP VoteCast data.

但在2026年,民主党将他们拉到了自己这边。塔夫茨大学公民学习与参与信息研究中心(CIRCLE)的分析显示,周二有59%的18至29岁白人男性投给了民主党。

But in 2026, Democrats pulled them across the aisle. Fifty-nine percent of white men aged 18-29 voted Democratic on Tuesday, according to analysis from Tufts University’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE).

“2024年驱使年轻男性投票给特朗普和共和党的头号力量,是关于改善经济的承诺。大多数美国人,包括Z世代男性,都觉得经济现在更糟了,”罗阿诺克大学政治学助理教授泰勒·丹尼尔说。

“The number one force driving young men to vote for Trump and Republicans in 2024 were promises about an improved economy. Most Americans, including Gen Z men, feel that the economy is now worse,” said Tyler Daniel, an assistant professor of political science at Roanoke University.

这并不一定意味着年轻男性的政治立场发生了重大转变。这更像是负向党派性,即反对某位候选人或政党,而非支持他们。不过,丹尼尔原本预计他们会缺席中期选举。“当他们感到政治体制剥夺了他们的权利时,这个年龄群体出现这种反应是不正常的,”他说。

This doesn’t necessarily mean that young men have had a significant change in politics. It seems more like negative partisanship, or the concept of voting against, rather than for, a candidate or party. Daniel, however, had expected them to sit out of the midterms. “This is an abnormal reaction from this age cohort when they feel disenfranchised by the political system,” he said.

招募和指导年轻保守派候选人的组织“Run Gen Z”执行主任亚当·彭宁斯表示,2024年投向特朗普的年轻选民,就是2026年离开他的那批人。“Z世代是生活成本这一代,他们也是按此投票的,”彭宁斯补充道。“很多共和党人没有意识到年轻人有多悲观,具体来说就是如此。”

Adam Pennings, executive director of Run Gen Z, an organization that recruits and mentors young conservative candidates, said that the young voters who came to Trump in 2024 are the same ones who left in 2026. “Gen Z is the cost of living generation, and they voted like it,” Pennings added. “A lot of Republicans didn’t realize how pessimistic young people were, specifically.”

数据印证了这一点——哈佛青年民调显示,只有9%的年轻成年人认为国家正朝着正确的方向发展。

The data shows it — the Harvard Youth Poll reported that only 9 percent of young adults say the country is headed in the right direction.

这是该民调历史上首次出现更多受访者预期自己的经济状况会比父母差而非好,比例分别为27%和25%。民主党大力宣传可负担性议题,共和党则聚焦文化战争,这导致年轻男性转而投票给主张降低物价的候选人。“在特朗普第一届政府时期,经济表现更好。年轻选民,尤其是年轻男性,可能更倾向于在2024年再次给共和党一个机会,”公共宗教研究所首席执行官梅丽莎·德克曼表示。

For the first time in its history, the poll said that more respondents expected to be financially worse than their parents, not better, at 27 percent and 25 percent, respectively. While Democrats hammered messages on affordability, Republicans spoke of the culture war, which led young men to vote for the candidates that campaigned on lowering prices. “Under the first Trump administration, the economy was better. Younger voters, especially younger men, may have been more likely to give Republicans a chance again in 2024,” said Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute.

虽然文化议题在上届选举中仍具相关性,但Z世代男性主要是看钱包投票。“人们感觉美国梦已遥不可及,”德克曼补充道。如今,民主党面临兑现竞选承诺的压力。“这不是一代会接受交易式互动的人。他们渴望候选人展现真实自我,”塔夫茨大学CIRCLE主任莉拉·斯特朗表示。展望2028年,丹尼尔预计共和党将准备好领导目前在党内分裂的“美国优先”运动。

While cultural issues were still relevant in the previous election, Gen Z men mostly voted by looking at their wallets. “There’s a sense that the American dream is out of reach,” Deckman added. Now, Democrats face pressure to deliver on their campaign promises. “This is not a generation of folks who will acquiesce to transactional interactions. There’s a desire for candidates to show up with authenticity,” said Leela Strong, a director at CIRCLE at Tufts. Looking toward 2028, Daniel expects that the GOP will prepare to lead the America First movement that is currently splintering within the Party.

他指出,播客主持人塔克·卡尔森和尼克·富恩特斯都在试图利用“让美国再次伟大”运动最初吸引Z世代男性的论点获利。“我们将不得不看看,没有特朗普主导政治,MAGA运动能否存续,”丹尼尔说。“共和党正经历更广泛的身份危机,一旦特朗普在2029年卸任,危机只会加剧,现在下结论Z世代男性将如何定位还为时过早。”

—— 克莱尔·莱博维茨Z世代占中期选举选民的12% 《纽约时报》的数据显示,70%的18至29岁选民将选票投给了民主党,较2024年发生了33个百分点的转变。

He pointed to podcasters Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes, both of whom are trying to capitalize on points that the MAGA movement originally made with Gen Z men. “We will have to see whether or not MAGA can exist without Trump guiding politics,” Daniel said. “The Republican Party is going through a broader identity crisis, one that will only worsen once Trump leaves power in 2029, and it is too early to see where Gen Z men will fall into the mix.” — Claire Leibowitz Gen Z made up 12 percent the midterm vote Data from The New York Times found that 70 percent of voters aged 18-29 cast their ballots for Democrats, a 33-point shift from 2024.

红蓝分野在一些稳固的共和党州尤为显著,如得克萨斯州和阿拉巴马州,分别有70%和63%的Z世代选民支持民主党候选人。只有在南达科他州和西弗吉尼亚州,Z世代中支持共和党候选人的占多数。且优势微弱,共和党在拉什莫尔山州和山地州分别仅以2个百分点和3个百分点领先。这与2024年截然不同。根据出口民调,在18至29岁选民中,特朗普总统在南达科他州以30个百分点、在西弗吉尼亚州以42个百分点领先时任副总统哈里斯。

The red-blue divide was striking in some reliably Republican states like Texas and Alabama, where 70 percent and 63 percent, respectively, backed Democratic candidates. Only in South Dakota and West Virginia did a majority of Gen Z support the Republican candidate. And the margins were slim, with the GOP reaching just a 2-point and 3-point lead in the Mount Rushmore and Mountain States, respectively. It’s a complete turn-around from 2024. President Trump led former Vice President Harris by 30 points is South Dakota and 42 points in West Virginia among voters aged 18-29, according to exit polls.

这些数字与2020年总统大选时的投票情况相似,当时特朗普在南达科他州以18个百分点、在西弗吉尼亚州以32个百分点领先时任总统拜登。美联社的出口民调显示,在所有世代中,经济仍是选民的首要考量。但Z世代最有可能表示他们投票是为了反对特朗普,这与早前报道一致,即年轻美国人更有可能表示后悔投票给现任总统。

Those figures were similar to the vote in the 2020 presidential election, when Trump led former President Biden by 18 points in South Dakota and 32 points in West Virginia. Exit polling from The Associated Press found that across all generations, the economy remained voters’ top priority. But Gen Zers were most likely to say they cast their vote as a rejection of Trump, in line with earlier reporting that younger Americans were more likely to say they regretted voting for the current president.

生殖正义组织URGE的执行董事金伯利·麦奎尔表示,生活成本推动了周二的选举结果,任何党派都不应视Z世代为囊中之物。麦奎尔对《国会山报》说:“我认为从这次选举中有太多东西可学,关于Z世代如何真正在政治上站稳了脚跟。凸显出的一些问题是,Z世代选民不应被视为理所当然,在许多方面应被视为一个摇摆选民群体。”

Kimberly McGuire, the executive director at URGE, a reproductive justice organization, which partnered with HIT Strategies for a national survey of young voters, said that the cost of living drove Tuesday’s results, and that neither party should take Gen Z for granted.

—— 阿比盖尔·沃克得克萨斯州的重大影响力进入周二的中期选举,所有目光都聚焦得克萨斯州。众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科(民主党)与得克萨斯州检察长肯·帕克斯顿(共和党)陷入激烈角逐,争夺参议员约翰·科宁(共和党-得克萨斯州)的参议员席位,而州众议员吉娜·伊诺霍萨(民主党)试图击败州长。

“I think there is so much to learn from this election about how Gen Z has really found their feet politically,” McGuire told The Hill. “Some of the things that are rising to the top are the way in which Gen Z voters should not be taken for granted and should be treated in many ways as a swing constituency.” — Abigail Walker A big influence in Texas Going into Tuesday’s midterm elections, all eyes were on Texas.

格雷格·阿博特(共和党)。这两场竞选最终都向民主党倾斜,为该党赢得了历史性胜利,民主党认为年轻选民发挥了巨大作用。《纽约时报》的一项出口民调发现,在今年的得克萨斯州参议院竞选中,74%的18至29岁选民投票支持塔拉里科——与2024年大选相比,民主党的得票率提升了49个百分点。得克萨斯州民主党主席肯德尔·斯卡德指出,Z世代“是我们联盟的重要组成部分”,但没有哪一个得克萨斯人群体单独推动了塔拉里科和伊诺霍萨的胜利。

Rep. James Talarico (D) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) were locked in a highly contested battle for Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) Senate seat, while State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) looked to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott (R). Both races ultimately swung in the Democrats’ favor in historic wins for the party, and Democrats believe young voters played a huge role. An exit poll from The New York Times found that 74 percent of people aged 18-29 voted for Talarico in this year’s Texas Senate race — a 49 percent boost for Democrats compared to the 2024 election. Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party, noted that Gen Z “was a huge part of our coalition,” but there was no one group of Texans that drove Talarico and Hinojosa’s wins.

“我们确实持续看到的是,低投票倾向人群、不常投票的人、甚至可能从未投票过的人,以远超预期的数量在中期选举中现身,”斯卡德说。得克萨斯州的选民投票率长期在全美排名第49位,因此年轻一代蜂拥至投票站实属大事。塔拉里科和伊诺霍萨的竞选策略以提高投票率为目标,瞄准Z世代,采用精通技术、更敏捷的手段,斯卡德认为这对他们有利。

“What we did see consistently were people with low propensity, people who didn’t vote very often, maybe hadn’t voted before, showing up in much larger numbers than you would expect for a midterm,” Scudder said. Texas hashistorically ranked 49th in the country for voter turnout, making it a big deal that younger generations flocked to the polls. Talarico and Hinojosa’s campaign strategies to increase voter turnout targeted Gen Z, using tech-savvy, snappier techniques that Scudder believes worked in their favor.

“他们不一定只是依赖传统媒体传递信息。你可以看到他们在不同平台上运行强有力的社交媒体计划,拥有非常管用的TikTok、非常管用的Instagram,”斯卡德说。“这让他们能够触达民众、传递信息并表达紧迫感——在人们所在的地方与他们相遇。” —— 约书亚·费尔德斯坦 《The Feed》是由《国会山报》三位Z世代编辑共同打造的每周Z世代专栏。

“They weren’t necessarily just leaning on legacy media to get their messaging. You saw them running strong social media plans across different platforms, they had very functional TikToks, very functional Instagrams,” Scudder said. “It allowed them to reach people, get their message across and express the urgency — meeting people where they are.” — Joshua Feldstein The Feed is a weekly scoop on Generation Z put together by three Generation Z editors at The Hill.

我们致力于了解我们这一代人政治的方方面面。欢迎发送线索或评论至 awalker@thehill.com、jfeldstein@thehill.com 或 cleibowitz@thehill.com。

We’re working to understand the ins and outs of our generation’s politics. Send tips or comments to awalker@thehill.com, jfeldstein@thehill.com or cleibowitz@thehill.com.

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