2026年中期选举中，民主党取得历史性胜利，赢得参众两院控制权，并在得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州等关键州份翻转席位。选民整体呈现左倾倾向，这种转变广泛且多元，但有三个人口群体在周二表现出显著变化，助力民主党获胜。
The 2026 midterm elections saw historic gains for Democrats, who won control of both chambers of Congress and flipped key seats in states like Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina. The electorate’s leftward swing was diverse and widespread, but three demographics showed notable shifts that helped support Democrats on Tuesday.
年轻选民、农村选民和西班牙裔选民对民主党的支持显著增加——这三个群体曾是唐纳德·特朗普总统在2024年获胜的关键。全国范围关于这些群体在众议院选举中投票倾向的民调，大致反映了他们对民主党的支持程度；而参议院竞选则揭示了这些趋势在关键州的具体表现。专家分析了可能促成这些转变的原因。
Distinct gains came from young, rural, and Hispanic voters—all of whom were key to President Donald Trump’s victory in 2024. National polling on how these groups voted in House races offers a broad measure of their support for Democrats, while Senate contests reveal how those trends played out in key states. Experts weigh in on what may have prompted the shifts.
年轻选民 本次选举周期，年轻人压倒性地支持民主党候选人。
Young voters Young people overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates this election cycle.
根据美联社选民民调（10月19日至11月3日实施），约70%的18至29岁选民表示支持其所在选区的民主党众议院候选人，而约30%表示投给了共和党候选人。
According to the AP Voter Poll, which was conducted Oct. 19 through Nov. 3, about 7 in 10 voters ages 18 to 29 said they supported the Democratic candidate in their local House races, while about 3 in 10 said they voted Republican.
尽管特朗普不在选票上，民调显示60%的年轻选民表示，其众议院投票意在“表达对唐纳德·特朗普的反对”。这与2024年总统大选形成鲜明对比，当时特朗普在年轻选民中获得约39%支持率，在该群体中取得历史性突破。但共和党仅两年后便未能利用这些增益。
Although Trump was not on the ballot, the poll found that 60% of young voters said their House vote was intended to “express opposition to Donald Trump.”This marks a sharp change from the presidential election in 2024, when Trump won an estimated 39% of young voters, making historic gains among the demographic. But the Republican Party was unable to capitalize on those gains just two years later.
除对总统的评价外，43%的年轻选民表示经济是其首要关切议题。
Outside of commentary on the President, 43% of young voters said that their top issue was the economy.
“明日选民”组织执行主任圣地亚哥·梅耶对《时代》周刊表示，年轻人因特朗普的经济政策感到“被背叛”。
Santiago Meyer, the executive director of Voters of Tomorrow, tells TIME that young people felt “betrayed” by Trump’s economic policies.
“年轻人信任唐纳德·特朗普能降低物价、解决负担能力问题，”这位24岁的年轻人解释道。“他背叛了他对我们承诺的一切：他用关税推高了物价，没有在住房问题上采取行动，还发动了一场非法战争。”梅耶表示，虽然不可否认特朗普在2024年赢得了年轻男性的支持，但他此前在2024年前五年投入了12亿美元用于青年工作，支出是左翼的10倍。
“Young people trusted Donald Trump to bring prices down and work on affordability,” the 24-year-old explains. “He betrayed everything that he told us: He made prices higher with tariffs, he did not work on housing, and he started an illegal war.”Meyer says that while it's undeniable that Trump won over young men in 2024, he did so at the time with a $1.2 billion investment in youth in the five years preceding 2024, outspending the left 10 to 1.
“今年的区别在于，光有钱不够了，共和党误读了2024年吸引年轻人转向他们的原因，”他说，并声称特朗普当时瞄准年轻男性，正值他们感到特别“被抛在身后”之时。今年，是反对派最能回应这些情绪。
“The difference this year is that the money just didn’t cut it, there was a misread by Republicans of what drove young people toward them in 2024,” he says, claiming that Trump had targeted young men at a time when they felt particularly “left behind.”This year, it was the opposition that was able to best speak to those sentiments.
然而，梅耶表示，如果民主党想要保住在这次选举中赢得的支持，就需要在国会兑现承诺。
If Democrats are to retain the support they won in this election, however, Meyer says they will need to deliver in Congress.
“民主党这次赢得了年轻人的信任，所以他们必须兑现承诺，否则年轻人可能会再次倒戈，或者在下次选举中继续待在家里不投票，”他指出，最新数据仍在统计中，但已显示Z世代有望达到或超过2018年的创纪录投票率，那一年是这一代人首次具备投票资格。
“Democrats got the trust of young people this time, so they need to deliver, or else they might swing again, or stay on the couch for the next election,” he says, pointing out that the latest data, which is still being tallied, already shows that Gen Z is on track to either match or exceed its record turnout in 2018, the first year for which the generation was eligible to vote.
“年轻人需要有能力负担得起前几代人许诺给他们的生活，”他说。
“Young people need to be able to afford the lives they were promised by older generations,” he says.
西班牙裔选民 根据美联社选民调查，约6成西班牙裔选民表示，他们在2026年当地众议院竞选中选择了民主党候选人。
Hispanic voters About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters said they chose the Democratic candidate in their local House race in 2026, according to the AP Voter Poll.
在得克萨斯州，他们在翻转该空缺参议院席位方面发挥了特别关键的作用。在得克萨斯州参议院竞选中，约6成西班牙裔选民支持民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科，而仅3成支持特朗普背书的共和党人肯·帕克斯顿。
In Texas, they were particularly instrumental in flipping the open Senate seat. Roughly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters in the Texas Senate race supported Democrat James Talarico, compared to just 3 in 10 who supported Trump-endorsed Republican Ken Paxton.
Equis Research联合创始人斯蒂芬妮·瓦伦西亚告诉《时代》周刊，周二中期选举的一个重要启示是，西班牙裔选票在美国变得多么举足轻重。
Stephanie Valencia, a co-founder of Equis Research, tells TIME that one of the big takeaways from Tuesday’s midterms was how consequential the Hispanic vote has become in America.
“昨晚的关键启示是，拉美裔选民是关键的摇摆选民，”她说。“人们喜欢把拉美裔选票称为‘沉睡的巨人’，但我们是‘摇摆的巨人’。”根据最近的民调，最新的摇摆主要源于两个不满领域：特朗普总体上的总统表现，以及具体而言，他对经济的处理。
“Key takeaway from last night is that Latinos are the key swing voter,” she says. “People love to call the Latino vote the ‘sleeping giant,’ but we are the swinging giant.”The latest swing was largely informed by two areas of discontent, according to recent polls: Trump’s presidency overall and, specifically, his handling of the economy.
根据皮尤研究中心上个月发布的一项民调，特朗普在拉美裔选民中的支持率从2025年2月的38%下降至9月和10月的24%。在2024年支持他的人群中，下降幅度甚至更大，支持率从2025年的93%跌至10月的57%。
Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters dropped from 38% in February 2025 to 24% in September and October, according to a Pew Research Center poll from last month. Of those who backed him in 2024, the decline was even greater, with approval down from 93% in 2025 to 57% in October.
BSP Research与非裔美国人研究协作组织的一项调查发现，具体的经济不满包括生活成本和通货膨胀。根据美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心10月的一项民调，超过七成拉美裔选民不认可特朗普对经济的处理。
A survey by BSP Research and the African American Research Collaborative found that specific economic grievances included the cost of living and inflation. More than 7 in 10 Latino voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy, according to an AP-NORC poll from October.
瓦伦西亚表示，周二的投票是拉美裔社区向特朗普、共和党及其“错位的承诺”竖起的“中指”。她说，这与他们在2024年支持特朗普以表达对民主党不满的方式如出一辙，因此应当注意到，“虽然这种转变和获得的支持是真实的，但未必是永久的。”
Valencia says that Tuesday’s vote was a “middle finger to Trump and Republicans and their misplaced promises” from the Hispanic community. It’s the same way they showed dissatisfaction toward Democrats when they supported Trump in 2024, she says, and therefore it should be noted that “while the shifts and the gains are real, they are not necessarily permanent.”
“给民主党的教训是，不要把对手的失败解读为自己的胜利，”她说。“他们最糟糕的做法是把2024年视为一个插曲，而看不清他们正处于拉美裔选民的‘考察期’之中。”2024年，当特朗普在拉美裔选民中的支持率接近其对手卡马拉·哈里斯时，瓦伦西亚表示，这一群体受到的驱动正是他们在2026年表达的相同优先事项：生活成本、通货膨胀和移民。
“The lesson for Democrats is not to interpret their opponents' loss as their victory,” she says. “The worst they could do is see 2024 as a blip and not see how they are in a probationary period with Latinos.”In 2024, when Trump drew near even with his opponent Kamala Harris among Hispanic voters, Valencia said that the demographic was driven by the same priorities they have expressed in 2026: cost of living, inflation, and immigration.
“对拜登和特朗普而言，共同的主线是成本上涨而工资不涨，”瓦伦西亚说。她补充道，目前由民主党控制的国会面临的挑战，是弄清如何与特朗普合作，并向拉美裔选民提供“切实的兑现”。
“For both Biden and Trump, the common thread is rising costs and not rising wages,” Valencia says. The challenge for a Democratic-controlled Congress, now, is to figure out how to work with Trump and provide “clear delivery” to Latino voters, she adds.
农村选民 传统上，城市选民与农村选民之间存在巨大的党派分歧——前者绝大多数投票给民主党，后者更多投票给共和党。
Rural voters Traditionally, there is a large party divide between urban voters and rural voters—with the former overwhelmingly voting for Democrats and the latter more often voting for Republicans.
皮尤研究中心显示，2024年这一差距十分显著，近70%将其社区描述为农村的经验证选民投票给特朗普，29%投票给哈里斯。
The Pew Research Center shows a pronounced gap in 2024, with nearly 70% of validated voters who described their communities as rural voting for Trump, and 29% voting for Harris.
据美联社选民调查，2026年农村选民仍倾向共和党候选人，但该群体显著向左转移：57%的农村选民选择共和党众议院候选人，而41%选择民主党候选人。
Rural voters still favored Republican candidates in 2026, according to the AP Voter Poll, but the demographic shifted significantly to the left: 57% of rural voters opted for the Republican candidate in the House, versus 41% opting for the Democratic candidate.
这种转变影响了几个关键摇摆州。以堪萨斯州为例，民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿当选参议员——这是近100年来该州首次派出民主党人进入参议院。
The shift influenced several key battleground states. In Kansas, for example, Democrat Adam Hamilton was elected to the Senate—the first Democrat sent to the upper chamber from the state in almost 100 years.
据《纽约时报》对堪萨斯州参议院选票的分析，该州每一个县——甚至西北部那些特朗普在2024年大获全胜的农村县——都向民主党倾斜。
According to a New York Times analysis of Senate votes in Kansas, every single county—even the rural counties in the northwest of the state, which Trump won in a landslide in 2024—shifted toward Democrats.
汉密尔顿还值得注意的是翻转了西南部三个农村县：芬尼县、福特县和苏厄德县。威奇托州立大学政治学副教授亚历山德拉·米德尔伍德表示，这一翻转至少部分归因于9月在这三个县的肉类加工厂发生的未经预告的移民执法行动。她观察到，这可能让当地人对共和党领导层感到反感。
Hamilton also notably flipped three rural counties in the southwest of the state: Finney, Ford, and Seward counties. According to Alexandra Middlewood, an associate professor of political science at Wichita State University, this flip can at least in part be attributed to unannounced immigration enforcement operations at meatpacking plants in all three of these counties in September. It may have soured locals on the leadership of the Republican Party, she observes.
“如果我们看看那些县，它们的选民登记人数在9月份增加了，而那正是那些ICE突击搜捕行动发生的时候，”米德尔伍德告诉《时代》周刊。“这种相关性是存在的。”
“If we look at those counties, their voter registration increased in the month of September, and that was when those ICE raids were happening,” Middlewood tells TIME. “The correlation is there.”
民主党人还在堪萨斯州众议院赢得了20个席位，米德尔伍德称这“简直疯狂”。她指出，经济问题也正以独特的方式冲击着堪萨斯州乃至全美的农村选民，这可能正在推动他们对特朗普政府的不满。
Democrats also flipped 20 seats in the Kansas House of Representatives, which Middlewood calls “insane.”She notes that economic issues are also hitting rural voters in Kansas and across the U.S. in unique ways that might be driving dissatisfaction with the Trump Administration.
美联社/KFF于9月发布的一项民调发现，大约一半的美国农村选民认为，经济状况比特朗普首次重返办公室时更糟。
An AP/KFF poll released in September found that about half of rural American voters believe the economy is worse off than when Trump first returned to office.
“我认为部分原因是他们不得不开车去任何地方，所以汽油费付得更多了，”米德尔伍德说，并指出自2月伊朗战争爆发以来，汽油价格一直呈上涨趋势。“那些农村地区有很多农民和牧场主，他们在收获季节的成本更高。因此，总体而言，堪萨斯州农村居民受到特朗普政府推出的这些经济政策的冲击尤为严重。”
“I think part of that is just they're paying more for gas because they have to drive cars to travel everywhere,” Middlewood says, pointing to the trend of rising gas prices since the war in Iran began in February. “A lot of those rural areas have farmers and cattle ranchers, and they are paying more for harvest season. So, in general, rural Kansans have been particularly impacted by these economic policies coming out of the Trump Administration.”