民主党正有望在2026年中期选举中取得自1974年以来最大的胜利，当时水门事件后出现了反共和浪潮。待约二十余个席位的最终计票完成后，民主党将以至少 250 个席位进入众议院、54 个席位进入参议院——如果选票按其预期分布，众议院可达 260 个席位、参议院可达 56 个席位。
The Democratic Party is on track to win its biggest midterm victory since 1974, when a wave of anti-Republican sentiment followed the Watergate scandal. Pending final counts in about two dozen seats, the Democrats will emerge from the 2026 midterm elections with at least 250 seats in the House of Representatives and 54 seats in the Senate — and with as many as 260 and 56 in the House and Senate, respectively, if votes break their way.
这场胜利标志着将唐纳德·特朗普在 2024 年带入白宫的联盟的巨大瓦解。根据 MS NOW 投票者调查对数个人口群体的投票选择估计，民主党在拉丁裔、年轻人和低收入美国人群体中失去的支持最多——这三组人群在 2020 年至 2024 年间也曾大幅转向特朗普。我的县级选票分析也显示，民主党在这些群体中获得了不成比例的增幅。
The victory represents a monumental crackup of the coalition that put Donald Trump in the White House in 2024. According to a review of vote-choice estimates from the MS NOW Voter Poll among a dozen demographic groups, the Republicans lost the most ground with Latinos, young people and lower-income Americans — three groups that also swung hard to Trump from 2020 to 2024. My analysis of county-level returns also shows Democrats making disproportionate gains with these groups.
对特朗普和共和党的反弹在拉丁裔选民中最大。根据皮尤研究中心的估计，拉丁裔在 2024 年全国范围内给民主党总统候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯提供了比特朗普高 3 个百分点的优势。但 MS NOW 投票者调查显示，拉丁裔昨晚给民主党提供了高达 27 个百分点的优势。根据一套统计模型，将当前选举结果外推到尚未计票的县，我最好的猜测是，民主党在众议院普选中将以 14 个百分点的优势结束，比目前的 10 个百分点优势有所提升。
The backlash against Trump and the Republican Party is largest among Latino voters. According to estimates calculated by the Pew Research Center, Latinos gave 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris a 3-percentage-point margin over Trump nationally in 2024. But the MS NOW Voter Poll shows Latinos giving Democrats a whopping 27-point margin last night. My best guess, based on a statistical model extrapolating the current election results to counties without final vote tallies, is that the Democrats will end up with a 14-point margin in the House popular vote, an increase from their current 10-point margin. (This could be as low as 12 or as high as 15 points, depending on how ballots break in California, which counts ballots very slowly.)
（这可能低至 12 个百分点，也可能高至 15 个百分点，取决于加利福尼亚州选票的拆分情况，而加州计票速度非常慢。）民主党 27 个百分点的转向将比特朗普在 2024 年拉丁裔选民中获得的 22 个百分点的增幅更大。（该人口群体在 2020 年以 25 个百分点的优势投给民主党。）这看起来可能是民主党自 2018 年中期选举以来在拉丁裔选民中获得的最大选票份额。
A 27-point swing for Democrats would be even larger than the gains Trump made in 2024 among Latino voters, which Pew estimated at 22 points. (The demographic voted for Democrats by 25 points in 2020.) It looks like this could be Democrats’ largest share of the vote among Latinos since the 2018 midterm elections.
但全国平均摇摆率掩盖了县级层面上一些真正显著的变化。例如，南德克萨斯州多数拉丁裔的韦伯县在2024年总统选举中给唐纳德·特朗普提供了2个百分点的优势。昨晚，周三下午的投票数据显示，该县选民以45个百分点的差距支持民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科，而非共和党候选人、德州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿。
But the national average swing glosses over some truly remarkable shifts at the county level. For example, take majority-Latino Webb County in South Texas, which gave Donald Trump a plus-2-point margin in the 2024 presidential election. Last night, voters there opted for Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico over Republican nominee and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 45 percentage points as of Wednesday afternoon.
下表显示了选民中其他人口子群体的类似计算，并按2024年至2026年间该群体的摇摆幅度大小排序。
The table below shows similar calculations for other demographic subgroups in the electorate, and is sorted by the size of the swing among the group from 2024 to 2026.
虽然不是选民行为变化中最大的，但表中最令人惊讶的转变可能是农村选民的摇摆。他们自2024年以来向左移动了22个百分点。鉴于共和党在爱荷华州、德克萨斯州和堪萨斯州等农村州的参议院席位正处于防守状态——而这些州现在已被民主党翻盘——这次转变可能是对2026年最具决定性影响的之一。
While not the largest change in voter behavior, the most surprising shift on this table may be the swing among rural voters. They have moved 22 points left since 2024. The shift may be one of the most consequential for 2026, given that Republicans were defending Senate seats in rural states like Iowa, Texas and Kansas — all of which Democrats have now flipped.
总体而言，所有这些摇摆都帮助推动了民主党自1974年以来在美国众议院中最大的普选优势。
Overall, all these swings have helped power the Democrats’ biggest popular vote margin in the U.S. House since 1974.
民主党在普选中获得12至14个百分点的胜利将比大多数民调估计更大。与FiftyPlusOne计算的典型选票民调平均值相比，该值显示在可能选民中民主党领先9个百分点，14个百分点的胜利将使民调失误5个百分点。即使是更温和的误差也为3个百分点——处于近期典型选票误差的高端，但并非前所未有。对参议院民调误差的完整分析将等更多投票计数完成后才能进行，但各州的误差目前看起来更接近5个百分点。
A 12- to 14-point victory for Democrats in the popular vote will be larger, however, than most pollsters estimated. When compared to the average of generic ballot polls calculated by FiftyPlusOne, which had Democrats up 9 points among likely voters, a 14-point win would be a 5-point miss for the polls. Even the more modest error would be 3 points — on the high end of recent generic ballot misfires, but not unprecedented. A full analysis of Senate polling error will have to wait for more votes to be tallied, but the error there across states is looking closer to 5 points.
令大多数选举观察员感到意外的，不是误差的大小，而是误差的方向。在昨晚之前，民调在过去五次选举中的四次都高估了对民主党的支持率。这导致许多观察人士过早地断定民主党不可能在参议院选举中获胜。但在“五十加一”（FiftyPlusOne），我们的模型基于这样一个历史基线：民调误差的方向无法根据以往周期的误差来预测。下一次，民调观察者应在选举前忽略关于民调偏向的预测。
What has surprised most election observers is not the size of the error, however, but the direction. Before last night, polls had overstated support for Democrats in four of the last five elections. This led many analysts to prematurely write off the possibility of a Democratic victory in the Senate. But at FiftyPlusOne, our model worked from the historical baseline that the direction of polling error is not predictable based on errors in past cycles. Next time, poll watchers should ignore predictions of polling bias ahead of the election.
两年前，特朗普在拉美裔、年轻选民和低收入选民中的得票上升被誉为政治重组的开端。但昨晚，这些选民又回归到他们以往以支持民主党为主的投票习惯。2024年愿意尝试新选择以期降低物价的选民，在2026年同样愿意改变主意。然而，尽管民主党今晚取得了胜利，如果他们不能为美国民众兑现承诺，这应当成为对他们2030年前景的一个警示。
Two years ago, Trump’s gains with Latino, young and lower-income voters were heralded as the start of a political realignment. But last night, those voters snapped back to their predominantly Democratic past voting habits. Voters who were willing to try something new to get prices down in 2024 were just as willing to change their mind in 2026. Yet despite the Democratic Party’s triumph tonight, this should be a warning for what’s in store for them in 2030 if they don’t deliver for the American people.