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华尔街日报

让众议院脱离特朗普掌控的选民The Voters Who Swung the House Away From Trump

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民主党人周二打破了两年前将唐纳德·特朗普送入白宫的选民联盟,从而赢得了众议院和参议院的控制权。

To win control of the House and Senate, Democrats on Tuesday fractured the coalition that had elected Donald Trump to the White House two years ago.

选民群体中的大型群体转而背离特朗普及其政党,其中包括独立选民和拉美裔选民,特别是拉美裔女性。根据一项针对7.9万多名参加中期选举的选民进行的全国性调查,拉美裔女性以36个百分点的优势选择了民主党国会候选人,高于2024年的21个百分点。

Big groups in the voter pool shifted away from Trump and his party, among them independent voters and Latino voters, particularly Latino women. Latino women chose the Democratic candidate for Congress by a margin of 36 percentage points, up from 21 points in 2024, according to a national survey of more than 79,000 voters who participated in the midterms.

拉美裔选民在得克萨斯州尤为重要,他们占选民群体的25%。那里的转变十分显著:特朗普在2024年仅以1个百分点的优势赢得拉美裔选民。而今年,民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在其成功的参议院竞选中以34个百分点的优势赢得了他们的支持。

Latino voters were particularly important in Texas, where they made up 25% of the voter pool. The shift there was dramatic: Trump won Latino voters by 1 percentage point in 2024. Democrat James Talarico won them by 34 points this year in his successful Senate campaign.

与两年前相比,民主党在2026年获得了显著更高比例的年轻选民支持,在18至29岁年龄段中获得了20个百分点的增幅。

Democrats drew a significantly higher share of young voters in 2026 than two years earlier, gaining 20 points among those age 18 to 29.

民主党在白人选民中也取得了进一步进展,此前在受过大学教育的白人中微弱的优势扩大到了近20个百分点。虽然未受大学教育的白人仍然是倾向共和党的群体,但即使这一比例也有所下滑。

Democrats also made further inroads with white voters, as previously thin margins among college-educated whites extended to an almost 20-point margin. While non-college whites remained a Republican-leaning cohort, even that share slipped.

未受大学教育的白人选民的转变在俄亥俄州等州至关重要,他们占选民的一半。他们在2024年以35个百分点的优势支持特朗普。但今年,共和党候选人在其失败的参议院竞选中仅以17个百分点的优势赢得了他们的支持。

The shift among non-college white voters was important in states such as Ohio, where they make up half of the electorate. They had backed Trump by 35 percentage points in 2024. But this year, the GOP candidate carried them by only 17 points in his losing race for the Senate.

方法论 SSRS的《选民民意调查》受七大新闻机构委托,于10月19日至11月3日期间对约10万名登记选民进行了访谈,以产生一个超过7.9万人的全国样本以及所有50个州的州级样本。访谈在投票地点、网络和电话中进行。

Methodology The Voter Poll by SSRS, conducted on behalf of seven major news organizations, interviewed about 100,000 registered voters between Oct. 19 and Nov. 3 to produce a national sample of more than 79,000 and state-level samples for all 50 states. Interviews were conducted at voting locations, online and by telephone.

全国选民的总体抽样误差预计为正负0.6个百分点,各州有所不同。点击此处阅读完整方法论。

The overall margin of sampling error for voters was expected to be plus or minus 0.6 percentage points nationally and varies by state. Read the full methodology here.

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