塔拉里科在竞选期间大谈所谓的“荒野”——即民主党自特朗普总统2024年连任以来一直深陷的选举荒原和士气泥潭。在得克萨斯州，这感觉像是一种永久状态。塔拉里科对“荒野”有一种更为乐观的解读，在他成为自1988年以来首位赢得参议院席位的得州民主党人之后，我曾反复思考过这一点。他在竞选初期就说过，“荒野”实际上可能成为重塑自我的沃土。
Talarico talked a lot during his campaign about the so-called wilderness—as in, the electoral wasteland and morale morass that Democrats had been languishing in since President Trump’s reelection, in 2024. In Texas, this felt like something of a permanent condition. Talarico preferred a more sanguine interpretation of wilderness, something I’ve thought about after he became the first Texas Democrat to win a Senate race since 1988. The wilderness, he said from early on in his campaign, could in fact prove a fertile ground for reinvention.
“现在有机会重新定义民主党，”塔拉里科对我说，“但如果品牌已经固化，或者党内高层有一位强势领导人，你就做不到这一点。”那是一年多以前的事了，我们坐在得克萨斯州阿灵顿一家酒店的大堂酒吧里。“荒野，”塔拉里科继续说道，“正是新思想、新领导人和新运动涌现的地方。”当时，我倾向于把这番话当作又一位得州民主党希望之星的自我辩解而不予理会——这类人看似金光闪闪，实则华而不实。回过头看，也许塔拉里科确实说到了点子上。
“There is an opportunity to redefine the Democratic Party,” Talarico told me. “And you can’t do that if the brand is super set, or if there’s a strong leader at the top of the party.”This was a little over a year ago, and we were sitting in the lobby bar of an Arlington, Texas, hotel. “The wilderness,” Talarico continued, “is where new ideas and new leaders and new movements come forth.”At the time, I was inclined to dismiss this as a rationalization from another one of those fool’s-gold Democratic hopefuls in Texas. In retrospect, maybe Talarico was onto something.
至少可以说，民主党在中期选举中对特朗普及其唯命是从的共和党联盟的大胜，似乎至少暂时终结了长期以来关于民主党脱离实际、定位模糊、缺乏目标、永远在这片“荒野”中徘徊的讨论。我承认，我自己也曾大量参与这种关于民主党低迷的讨论，包括在2月发表的一篇关于该党迷失方向的宏文——如今想来恍如隔世。我坚持那篇报道的立场。当时它是真实的，而且如果你从2022年中期选举和拜登时代灾难性收场算起，这种状态已经持续了近四年。
If nothing else, the Democrats’ midterm rout of Trump and his supine coalition of Republicans would seem to put to rest, at least for now, the long-running discussion of Democrats as a party out of touch, ill-defined, lacking in purpose, and perpetually ambling in this “wilderness.”I admit that I participated in a fair amount in this Democratic-doldrums discourse myself, including in an opus about the party adrift that ran in February, which now feels like a decade ago. I stand by that story. It was true then, and had been for nearly four years, if you start the clock with the 2022 midterms and the disastrous denouement of the Biden years.
周二共和党遭遇的惨败，其幅度之大，理应成为民主党人摆脱他们容易陷入的顾影自怜的一剂解药。你不可能看不到他们胜利所覆盖的地理范围、如此多潜在明星人物的代际崛起，以及民主党人在全国范围内取得的惊人优势，然后还不得出结论：这个党有充分理由对自己感觉良好。这是一次名副其实的“痛击”——另一位不受欢迎的共和党总统乔治·W·布什20年前就是这样称呼他自己那场中期选举惨败的。
The sheer magnitude of Tuesday’s drubbing of Republicans should provide an antidote to the wallowing that Democrats can be prone to. It’s impossible not to see the geographic reach of their victories, the generational ascent of so many potential stars, and the stunning margins that Democrats ran up across the country and not conclude that the party has legitimate reason to feel good about itself. This was a bona fide “thumpin,’” as another unpopular Republican president, George W. Bush, called his own midterm debacle 20 years ago.
周二晚上，民主党人立刻开始了必不可少的捶胸庆祝。“我们有五个字要对美国人民说，”随着开票结果不断传来，很可能成为下一任参议院多数党领袖的查克·舒默对记者宣称，“解脱就在路上。”还有五个字要请民主党人记住：趁还能享受，好好享受。
The requisite chest-thumpin’ from Democrats commenced immediately on Tuesday night. “We have five words for the American people,” Chuck Schumer, the likely next Senate majority leader, proclaimed to reporters as the returns poured in. “Relief is on the way.”Here are five more words for Democrats to keep in mind: Enjoy this while it lasts.
这场讨论的“下一步是什么”如今已经摆在眼前。而且相当清楚的是，民主党人应当避免一个显而易见的陷阱，即认为他们的胜利意味着他们已经神奇地解决了自己的“品牌问题”“信任问题”或“工薪阶层选民问题”等等。最初那种被打得晕乎乎般的狂喜，终将让位于一系列问题：该党庞杂的新立法多数派应当聚焦什么，他们应当如何（如果有的话）与特朗普和共和党人接触，他们应当拥抱什么样的意识形态框架（进步派还是温和派），以及谁应当带领他们走向2028年。
The “what next” of this discussion is now at hand. And it’s pretty clear that Democrats should avoid the obvious trap of thinking that their victory means they’ve magically solved their “brand problem,” “trust problem,” or “working-class-voter problem,” among various others. The initial sense of punch-drunk euphoria will yield to questions about what the party’s sprawling new legislative majorities should focus on, how they should engage (if at all) with Trump and Republicans, what ideological framework (progressive versus moderate) they should embrace, and who should lead them going into 2028.
政治上的胜利巡游可能很有趣，但也很短暂，尤其是对于以焦虑和内讧著称的执政群体而言。不可避免的是，事后质疑和忧心忡忡还会回来，而且很可能很快。
Political victory laps can be fun but fleeting, especially for governing tribes famously given to angst and discord. Inevitably, the second-guessing and hand-wringing will return, and probably soon.
在政治中，对选举结果最简单的解释通常也是最明智的（而且比阅读那些没完没了的选后分析更省时间）。周二的结果在很大程度上可以归因于对特朗普的否定，而非揭示了获胜的形形色色民主党人的任何确定性特征。《库克政治报告》的政治分析师查理·库克最早提出了这一观点，他在9月预测本次中期选举将是一场“红色暗流”而非蓝色浪潮。结果更多是由对特朗普及其各种立法谄媚者的厌恶所驱动，而非民主党人的任何戏剧性自我重塑——也不是选民突然对他们产生了大规模的好感。
In politics, the simplest explanation for an election result is usually the smartest one (and less time-consuming than reading those endless postmortems). Tuesday’s result can be overwhelmingly ascribed to a repudiation of Trump, rather than revealing anything definitive about the diverse assortment of Democrats who prevailed. The political analyst Charlie Cook, of The Cook Political Report, gave preliminary voice to this notion when he predicted in September that this midterm would represent a “red undertow” rather than a blue wave. The results would be driven more by revulsion toward Trump and his various legislative lickspittles than by any dramatic reinvention by Democrats—or by some sudden mass affection for them by the electorate.
选前发布的NBC新闻民调生动地体现了这一点：尽管民主党在选举日之前拥有巨大优势，选民却表示自己并没有那么喜欢民主党。只有29%的受访者表示对该党持好感，而有38%的人对共和党持正面看法。约半数受访者表示对两党都持负面看法。
This was rendered vividly in an NBC News poll released just before the election, in which voters declared themselves just not that into Democrats, despite their massive advantages leading into Election Day. Only 29 percent of respondents said that they viewed the party favorably, while 38 percent viewed Republicans positively. About half of the people surveyed said that they held a negative view of both parties.
特朗普作为民主党现成靶子的日子不会太久了。他一直是民主党人以及共和党人的投票率发动机。过去十年里，他定义了共和党，也在对立面定义了民主党。不难想象，一位没有——比如说——反复无常地加征关税、发动不受欢迎的战争，或喋喋不休地谈论建造白宫舞厅的共和党总统，其期中选举的经历会比特朗普和共和党刚刚经历的好得多。而且听说过当选参议员塔拉里科、安妮·安德鲁斯（南卡罗来纳州）或亚当·汉密尔顿（堪萨斯州）的美国人也会少得多。
Trump will be around as the Democrats’ go-to foil for only so much longer. He has been a turnout machine for them as well as for Republicans. He has defined the GOP for the past decade, and has also defined the Democrats in opposition. It is not hard to imagine that a Republican president who did not, say, capriciously impose tariffs, start unpopular wars, or talk incessantly about building a White House ballroom would have had a considerably better midterm experience than Trump and the GOP just did. And far fewer Americans would have ever heard of Senators-Elect Talarico, Annie Andrews (South Carolina), or Adam Hamilton (Kansas).
民主党人同样应当清楚的是，他们的时间有限。一次又一次，选民们已经表现出对不能迅速为他们兑现承诺的政党的严厉不耐，尤其是在通胀这类切肤之痛的经济议题上。美国人在两党之间来回摇摆从不犹豫。话说回来，上一次选举是什么时候没有被选民形容为“愤怒”“沮丧”或“受够了”的？至少短期内，民主党人可以拿出他们的Nutter Butter饼干，乐看对面的崩盘——自周二以来，美国政治戏剧与分裂的中心已决定性地转移到了那边。
What should also be clear to Democrats is that their time is limited. Again and again, voters have shown punishing impatience with parties that don’t deliver for them quickly, especially on such close-to-the-bone economic issues as inflation. Americans have not hesitated to swing back and forth between the two parties. When was the last election, anyway, in which voters have not been described as “angry,” “frustrated,” or “fed-up?”In the short term, at least, Democrats can break out their Nutter Butters and enjoy the crack-up on the other side, where the center of political drama and division in America has shifted decisively since Tuesday.
众议院议长迈克·约翰逊表示他不会竞选少数党领袖，这为一场可能相当激烈的继任之争埋下伏笔；副总统万斯把周二的惨败归咎于伊朗战争（等等，那是谁的主意？）；而特朗普则把败选归因于他自己不在选票上（实际上是在怪那些在选票上的共和党人）。
House Speaker Mike Johnson said that he won’t run for minority leader, setting up a potentially bitter race to succeed him; Vice President Vance blamed Tuesday’s pummeling on the Iran war (wait, whose idea was that?); and Trump chalked up the defeat to not being on the ballot himself (effectively blaming Republicans who were).
民主党人突然间在华盛顿拥有了真正的筹码。至少可以说，特朗普并不容易低头，也不太热衷于自我反省或路线纠正（比如，他昨天还花时间炫耀他那正在施工的白宫宴会厅）。不过，他是个幸存者，会抓住一切可用的救命稻草。瞧：“信不信由你，我有很多民主党朋友，”特朗普在福克斯上说。“我已经和其中一些人谈过了，”他补充道。据推测，其中一人就是舒默，舒默周二表示，只要特朗普“真的改变他的做法”，他就愿意与特朗普合作。这当然好过在野的荒原。
Democrats suddenly have real leverage in Washington. Trump is, to say the least, not easily humbled and not much for self-examination or course correction (to wit, he spent part of yesterday showing off his in-progress White House ballroom). He is, however, a survivor, and will take what lifelines are available. Lo and behold: “I have a lot of friends who are Democrats, believe it or not,” Trump said on Fox. “I’ve already spoken to some of them,” he added. Presumably, one of these people was Schumer, who indicated Tuesday that he would be open to working with Trump, so long as he “will actually change his ways.”It certainly beats the wilderness.
昨天，我联系了民主党全国委员会主席肯·马丁。他去年抵达华盛顿之际，民主党全国委员会内部纷争不断、筹款枯竭，媒体上关于他的报道也不乏负面——其中就包括我自己的报道。今年2月，我在文章中把他描绘成领导民主党走向末路的倒霉蛋，形容这位主席的神情是“天生愁容”，这个描述想必他并不喜欢。所以大选之后，我邀请他在我的脑袋上做一番口若悬河的胜利巡游。
Yesterday, I reached out to Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin, whose arrival in Washington last year was marked by infighting at the DNC, a fundraising drought, and unflattering stories about him in the press—my own among them. I’d made him the hapless head of Democratic doom in my article in February, characterizing the chairman’s demeanor as one of “resting dread face,” a description that he presumably did not appreciate. So after the election, I invited him to take an oratorical victory lap on my head.
他婉拒了，只通过短信发来民主党全国委员会通讯主任罗斯玛丽·博格林的一段简短“更新”：“肯·马丁已经把他天生愁容上的眉头舒展开了。”
He demurred, except for this brief “update” from DNC Communications Director Rosemary Boeglin, via text: “Ken Martin has turned the frown upside down on his resting dread face.”