法国总统马克龙收到警告,法国可能发生的动荡局面。藏身巴黎郊区的据点在一本名为《新暗影军团》(La Nouvelle Armée des Ombres)的新书中被披露,该书由三名调查记者皮埃尔·加斯托诺(Pierre Gastineau)、安托万·伊桑巴德(Antoine Izambard)和弗兰克·雷诺(Franck Renaud)合著。
Emmanuel Macron has been warned that the unrest that has gripped France could sp The hideout in the Paris suburbs was revealed in La Nouvelle Armée des Ombres (The New Army of Shadows), a new book by Pierre Gastineau, Antoine Izambard and Franck Renaud, all investigative journalists.
近几周来,法国一直被暴力动荡所困扰,据报道,情报部门负责人正为2027年总统大选中的骚乱、破坏、网络攻击,甚至出动特种部队镇压武装起义做准备。
In recent weeks, France has been gripped by violent unrest, while spy chiefs are reportedly preparing for riots, sabotage, cyber attacks and even the deployment of special forces against an armed uprising in the 2027 presidential election.
据《快报》(L’Express)刊登的节选,这些地堡准备工作部分是受到2018年“黄背心”起义的触动,当时马克龙在访问勒皮昂韦莱(Le Puy-en-Velay)时遭到愤怒抗议者的攻击。
The bunker preparations were partly prompted by the Yellow Vest uprising of 2018, when Mr Macron came under attack by furious protesters during a visit to Le Puy-en-Velay, according to extracts published in L’Express.
“政府在颤抖,”一位作者周五在法国国际广播电台(France Inter)上回忆道。
“The government trembled,” one author recalled on France Inter on Friday.
过去几周,法国发生了一系列示威和骚乱。当局开始考虑总统撤离计划,并援引1934年2月导致法国政府垮台的暴力骚乱。
France has been hit by a series of demonstrations and disturbances over the past few weeks The authorities began considering presidential evacuation plans and invoking the violent riots of February 1934, which brought down a French government.
据作者称,官员们担心,马琳·勒庞(Marine Le Pen)领导的民粹主义右翼国民联盟(National Rally)获胜,可能会引发街头“第三轮”抗议,由激进左翼活动人士、郊区青年和农村激进分子发起,他们拒绝接受选举结果。
According to the authors, officials fear that a victory by Marine Le Pen’s populist-Right National Rally could provoke a “third round” in the streets by radical-Left activists, suburban youths and rural militants who refuse to accept the election result.
相反,据目前民意调查显示,极左翼“不屈服的法兰西”(France Unbowed)候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)获胜,可能会引发警方内部的“消极抵抗”。
Conversely, a victory by Jean-Luc Mélenchon – the hard-Left France Unbowed candidate who, according to current polls, would reach the presidential run-off – could trigger “passive resistance” within the police.
在与多位高级别消息人士交谈后,作者们表示,巴黎警察局长帕特里斯·福雷(Patrice Faure)已多次召开会议,为应对叛乱做准备。
After speaking to various high-level sources, the authors said Patrice Faure, the head of the Paris police, has held repeated meetings to prepare for an insurrection.
法国对外安全总局(Directorate General for External Security)已模拟了选举干预,而巴黎警方则演练了在遭受毁灭性网络攻击的情况下,在没有加密智能手机的情况下运作一整天。
The Directorate General for External Security, France’s foreign intelligence agency, has simulated electoral interference, while police in the French capital have rehearsed operating for an entire day without encrypted smartphones in case of a crippling cyber attack.
在过去的几周里,法国各地的抗议者已经表达了他们的不满。一位高级情报官员早在四月份就警告作者们,法国正走向一场大起义,理由是燃油价格上涨以及自“黄背心”抗议以来一直酝酿的愤怒情绪。
Protesters across France have let their feelings be known these past few weeks One senior spy had warned the authors as early as April that France was heading towards a major revolt, citing rising fuel prices and anger simmering since the Yellow Vest protests.
尽管如此,情报官员严重低估了10月17日的示威活动,他们预测会有6万至15万抗议者,但实际到场人数超过了50万。威胁也延伸到了海外。
Nevertheless, intelligence officers badly underestimated the Oct 17 demonstrations, predicting between 60,000 and 150,000 protesters when more than 500,000 turned out. The threats also extend overseas.
书中声称,去年,欧洲边境管理局(Frontex)以及法国和比利时的安全部门进行了一次非同寻常的演习,模拟了一场混合危机,将俄罗斯的影子舰队与阿尔及利亚的一场虚构核事故相结合。在这场战争游戏中,协调一致的袭击随后引发了受辐射影响的移民涌向欧洲,同时伴随着网络攻击。
In an extraordinary exercise last year, Frontex, the European border agency, and French and Belgian security services simulated a hybrid crisis combining Russia’s shadow fleet with a fictional nuclear accident in Algeria, the book claims. Under the war-game, the co-ordinated strikes then triggered an exodus of migrants exposed to radiation towards Europe, alongside cyber attacks.
有警告称,法国正走向一场大起义。与此同时,作者们表示,法国特种部队已经研究了部署军队以武装镇压起义、保护议会的可能性。
There have been warnings that France is heading towards a major revolt Meanwhile, French special forces have examined deploying troops to protect parliament in an armed uprising, say the authors.
一位第13伞兵龙骑兵团的前军官透露了这些应急计划——考虑到同一部队的军官曾支持1961年反对戴高乐总统、争取阿尔及利亚独立的未遂军事政变,这颇具讽刺意味。
A former officer of the 13th Parachute Dragoon Regiment revealed the contingency plans – ironic, considering that officers of the same unit backed the failed 1961 military putsch against Charles de Gaulle over Algerian independence.
作者们还报道说,情报人员对复兴冷战时期秘密抵抗网络的某些元素重新产生了兴趣,这些网络由一个秘密情报基金资助。
The authors also report renewed interest among spies in reviving elements of clandestine Cold War resistance networks financed by a secret intelligence slush fund.
据报道,该基金的资产包括一家西贡妓院、摩洛哥的酒店和一个加勒比潜水俱乐部;这些资产是为了在法国国家崩溃时资助抵抗活动而购买的。但一位前特种部队指挥官警告不要在法国街头部署士兵。他最大的担忧是“王子可能会对此产生兴趣”。
The fund’s assets reportedly included a Saigon brothel, Moroccan hotels and a Caribbean diving club; these were bought to bankroll resistance if the French state collapsed. But one former special-forces commander warned against deploying soldiers on French streets. His greatest fear was “that the Prince might develop a taste for it”.