在美国历史上最反气候的总统政府执政两年后，周二的选举结果让许多气候倡导者感到一丝希望。尽管气候变化并未成为中期选举讨论的核心议题，但民主党有采取大胆行动削减排放的历史。
After two years of the most anti-climate presidential administration in U.S. history, Tuesday’s election results have many climate advocates feeling a sense of hope. Even though explicit mention of climate change was far from the heart of midterm discussions, Democrats have a history of taking big swings to cut emissions.
但即使民主党势头上扬，也不要指望会回到过去那种“绿色新政”主导国会山讨论、而《通胀削减法案》作为大规模支出的妥协产物的旧气候秩序。未来两年，华盛顿的当选官员将锻造新一波气候政策，且极有可能与近年来所见截然不同。
But even with Democrats on the rise, don’t expect a return to the old climate order where the Green New Deal dominated Capitol Hill chatter, and the big-spending Inflation Reduction Act served as a watered down compromise. Over the next two years, elected officials in Washington will forge the next wave of climate policy, and there’s a good chance it may look pretty different from what we’ve seen in recent history.
判断这可能呈现何种面貌的最大指标，或许只需快速浏览一下这批新当选的民主党参议员是如何谈论气候和能源问题的。得克萨斯州当选民主党参议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科承诺，将把保护石油和天然气就业岗位作为“全能源战略”的一部分。堪萨斯州当选民主党参议员亚当·汉密尔顿也呼吁，将“全能源生产”作为能源负担得起战略的一部分。
The biggest indicator of what this might look like may just be a quick survey of how the new crop of Democratic senators have talked about climate and energy issues. James Talarico, Texas’s Democratic senator-elect, has promised to protect oil-and-gas jobs as part of an all-of-the-above energy strategy. Kansas Democratic Senator-elect Adam Hamilton has also called for “all-of-the above-energy production” as part of an energy affordability strategy.
南卡罗来纳州当选参议员安妮·安德鲁斯则呼吁暂停联邦汽油税。这三人几乎与每一位新当选的民主党人一样，还聚焦于数据中心在电力系统中扮演的角色，呼吁大型科技公司为其造成的成本支付更多费用。
And South Carolina Senator-elect Annie Andrews has called for a suspension of the federal gas tax. All three, along with virtually every newly elected Democrat, have also put a spotlight on the role data centers are playing in the power system, calling on big tech firms to pay more for the costs they incur.
Future Proof Weekly 解读气候与能源经济。
Future Proof Weekly Making sense of the climate and energy economy.
这一批民主党人并非呼吁迅速终结化石燃料的“绿色新政”支持者。但这并不意味着没有气候政策的前景。事实上，一系列因素意味着能源和气候政策将登上议程——即使不以此为名。能源负担危机、伊朗战争、耗电量巨大的数据中心兴起，以及来自中国的竞争，所有这些都意味着气候将成为未来全国政治对话的首要任务。
Green New Dealers calling for a rapid end to fossil fuels this batch is not. But that doesn’t mean that there is no prospect of climate policy. In fact, a slew of factors mean that energy and climate policy will be on the agenda—even if it’s not labeled as such. The energy affordability crisis, the war in Iran, the rise of power-guzzling data centers, and competition from China all mean that climate will be top priorities for the coming national political dialogue.
拥有一批来自红州的民主党人，也可能为经得起时间考验的气候政策带来成效。兼顾得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州以及加利福尼亚州、纽约州等州政治经济现实的举措，不太可能随下一次政治风向逆转而被推翻。这对一系列行业的未来有诸多实际影响，尤其是电力和油气行业。
It’s also possible that having a crop of Democrats from red states could prove productive for climate policy that stands the test of time. Measures that need to account for the political economy of states like Texas and Kansas as well as California and New York are less likely to be reversed with the next political swing. This has a number of practical implications for the future of a range of industries, especially the power and oil-and-gas sectors.
毋庸置疑，除非且直到2029年有民主党人入主白宫，否则民主党无法推行重大政策举措。但民主党国会代表团的新构成，很可能会塑造智库和工作组正在进行的政策讨论。具体将朝哪个方向发展，仍有待观察。
It goes without saying that Democrats won’t be in a position to enact big policy measures unless and until a Democrat takes the White House in 2029. But the new makeup of the Democratic congressional delegation is likely to shape policy discussions already underway at think tanks and in working groups. Exactly in what direction remains to be seen.