塞思·博伦斯坦 联合国 — 随着联合国气候谈判于周一在土耳其拉开帷幕，秘书长古特雷斯向世界领导人发出了一个紧迫的信息：“这是一个真相时刻。”在过去十年里，他多次就由燃烧石油和天然气等化石燃料引起的气候变化发出这种不祥警告的不同版本，措辞往往愈发夸张。三年前，他甚至宣称：“全球沸腾时代已经到来”，指的是气温升高和极端天气增多，这两者都是气候变化的结果。
SETH BORENSTEIN UNITED NATIONS — As United Nations climate talks kick off in Turkey on Monday, Secretary-General António Guterres has an urgent message for world leaders: “This is a moment of truth.”He’s delivered variations of this ominous warning about climate change, caused by the burning of fossil fuels like oil and gas, in the past decade, often with increasingly hyperbolic language. Three years ago, he even said, “the era of global boiling has arrived, " referring to rising temperatures and increasing extreme weather, both results of climate change.
但这一次，这将是他作为联合国掌门人发表的最后一场全球变暖说教，因为他的第二个、也是最后一个任期将于年底届满。在致命热浪、风暴、洪水和干旱因气温不断攀升而日益加剧，且厄尔尼诺现象——一种自然发生的气候模式，会扰乱全球天气系统——叠加其上的世界里，紧迫感显而易见。
But this time, it will be his last global warming sermon as head of the United Nations as his second and last term expires at the end of the year. And the sense of urgency is palpable in a world with worsening killer heat waves, storms, floods and droughts amid ever higher temperatures and, on top of all of it, El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern that scrambles weather systems around the globe.
“这是真相时刻。我们不能再等待了，不能再进行无休止的讨论，让每个人都试图把责任推给别人。每个人都必须做得更多，每个人现在就必须做得更多，”古特雷斯说，他将在定于11月9日至20日举行的联合国气候大会（称为COP31）上向领导人们传达这一信息。
“This is a moment of truths. We can no longer wait, we can no longer have endless discussions in which everybody tries to push the responsibility to someone else. Everybody must do more, everybody must do more now,” Guterres said he will tell leaders of the U.N. climate conference, known as COP31, scheduled Nov. 9-20.
“真相时刻”这一信息分量极重，以至于秘书长在最近接受美联社独家专访时，在联合国总部38层会议室内20分钟内三次使用了这一短语。他谈到了自己在应对气候变化斗争中的最后一次推动，以及任职十年来，他如何成为最显眼的倡导者之一，敦促往往顽固不化的国家做得更多，以减少其温室气体排放。
The “moment of truth” message weighs so heavily that the Secretary-General used the phrase three times in 20 minutes during a recent exclusive interview with The Associated Press from his 38th floor conference room at U.N. headquarters. He discussed his one last push in the fight against climate change and a ten-year tenure where he became one of the most visible advocates urging often recalcitrant countries to do more to reduce their emissions of heat-trapping gases.
全球变暖现实的严重性也沉重地压在他心头，他回忆起了自己面对气候真相的个人时刻。他说，那是“生命中最艰难的日子之一”。那是去年，在一次重要气候演讲前，他与科学家们进行了磋商。和过去九年一样，古特雷斯原本打算坚持认为，《巴黎协定》的主要目标——将较工业化前水平的升温幅度控制在 1.5 摄氏度（2.7 华氏度）以内——依然活着。他打算说，世界需要做得多得多才能守住这一门槛，而且这是可行的。
The gravity of global warming reality also weighs heavily as he recalled his personal climate moment of truth. It was, he said, “one of the most difficult days of my life.”It came last year when he consulted with scientists before a major speech on climate. As he had for nine years, Guterres was going to insist that the 2015 Paris Agreement’s main goal — limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times — was still alive. He was going to say the world needs to do far more to keep below that threshold, and that it was doable.
“科学家们告诉我，你不能那样说，因为那不再是真的了，”在从政前是一名工程师的古特雷斯说。燃烧化石燃料产生的过量二氧化碳和其他温室气体已排放入大气层。
“Scientists told me you cannot say that because that’s no longer true ,” said Guterres, an engineer before his political career. Too much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, the result of burning fossil fuels, had been released into the atmosphere.
“那对我来说是一个巨大的冲击，”他说。现在联合国正试图限制世界超越这一门槛的程度。古特雷斯说，这感觉像是一种失败。
“That was an enormous shock for me,” he said. Now the U.N. is trying to limit how much past that threshold the world heads. It felt like a failure, Guterres said.
“但失败的不是世界，而是政治领导层，”古特雷斯说。保护地球，他说，需要长远的战略眼光。然而在许多政治体制中，“没有战略眼光。政策频繁变动，无法进行必要的持续坚定投资，”古特雷斯说。
“But it’s not the world that’s failed, it’s the political leadership that’s failed,” Guterres said. Protecting the planet, he said, requires a long-term strategic view. Yet in many political systems “there is no strategic view. And policies change frequently, not allowing the kind of constant determined investment that is necessary,” Guterres said.
他指着自己 20 世纪 90 年代末担任葡萄牙总理的任期，以表明长期投资绿色未来是可能的。他补充说，风能和太阳能作为比化石燃料更廉价的替代品在全球范围内蓬勃发展，这给了他希望。
He pointed to his tenure as Portugal’s prime minister in the late 1990s to show it’s possible to invest long term in a greener future. He added that a worldwide boom in wind and solar power as cheaper alternatives to fossil fuels gives him hope.
古特雷斯说，随着乌克兰和伊朗的战争肆虐，以及对人工智能的担忧——他也曾试图团结世界领导人应对这一问题——外面有很多威胁。
With wars raging in Ukraine and Iran and worries about artificial intelligence — which he also tried to rally world leaders around — there are a lot of threats out there, Guterres said.
“问题是所有这些事情都在叠加，”古特雷斯说，并指出人工智能巨大的电力和水资源消耗以及碳排放。
“The problem is that all these things are getting combined,” Guterres said, noting the huge electricity and water consumption and carbon emissions of AI.
他说，与战争相关的能源冲击表明，依赖化石燃料是一个根本性的安全问题。
War-related energy shocks show that relying on fossil fuels is a fundamental security problem, he said.
三年前，古特雷斯走访了尼泊尔的最高峰，警告未来将出现冰川融水湖泊暴涨并引发毁灭性洪水和山体滑坡的局面。
Three years ago, Guterres toured the highest peaks of Nepal, warning of a future with swollen glacier-fed lakes bursting and devastating floods and landslides.
“我今天站在世界屋脊上呐喊：停止这场疯狂，”古特雷斯2023年说。“冰川在退缩，但我们不能退缩，”他说。“我们必须终结化石燃料时代。”“遗憾的是，它们到来得比我预期的要早，”他在采访中回忆道。8月的洪水造成1400多人死亡，另有5600人失踪。科学家表示，气候变化在这些灾难中发挥了作用。
“I am here today to cry out from the rooftop of the world: Stop the madness,” Guterres said in 2023 . “The glaciers are retreating, but we cannot,” he said. “We must end the fossil fuel age.”“Unfortunately they came sooner than what I expected,” he recalled in the interview. Floods in August killed more than 1,400 people with another 5,600 missing. Scientists said climate change played a role in the disasters.
古特雷斯说，需要有人为气候变化的受害者买单，而这些受害者往往并非问题的制造者。
Guterres said someone needs to pay to help the victims of climate change, who often didn’t cause the problem.
“化石燃料公司正在获得巨额利润，显然这些意外之财应该征税，税收应用于支持那些遭受气候变化更剧烈冲击的国家，”古特雷斯说。
“Fossil fuel companies are making huge profits and obviously those windfall profits should be taxed and those taxes should be applied in supporting the countries that are having the more dramatic impacts of climate change,” Guterres said.
本月初，古特雷斯在北冰洋中央一座漂流平台上与一个科学团队交谈时提到，他对珠穆朗玛峰的行程以及与研究人员的交谈改变了他。他说，这些对话产生了“一种愤怒感，针对那些继续……如果不是否认，至少是拒绝采取必要措施来制止这种疯狂的人。”
Talking earlier this month with a science team on a drifting platform in the middle of the Arctic Ocean, Guterres mentioned that his trip to Mount Everest and chats with researchers changed him. He said the conversations created “a sense of fury in relation to those who go on, if not denying, at least refusing to take the measures that are necessary to stop this madness.”
前美国副总统阿尔·戈尔表示：“安东尼奥·古特雷斯在所有关于应对气候危机的声明和倡议中，始终言辞雄辩、措辞有力且切中肯綮。他之所以在这个问题上如此活跃，是因为他清楚地认识到，这是人类面临的最大挑战。”
“António Guterres has consistently been eloquent, forceful and right on target in all of his many statements and initiatives to address the climate crisis,” former U.S. Vice President Al Gore said. “He’s been so active on this issue because he understands clearly that it is the greatest challenge facing humanity.”
曾主持促成《巴黎协定》谈判的欧洲气候基金会首席执行官劳伦斯·图比安娜表示，古特雷斯“做了他能做的，甚至比任何一位前任秘书长都更大力地推进了进程，以至于他可能被置于一个非常对抗性的语境中。”
European Climate Foundation CEO Laurence Tubiana, who presided over the negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement, said Guterres “has done what he could, even pushing the ball much, much farther than any other SG, to the point that he may have been represented in a very adversarial context.”
古特雷斯表示，因为各国不必听从联合国或其领导人的要求，且超级大国拥有否决权，所以他秘书长的职位“并没有真正的权力。你们知道，我们没有多少钱。但我们有一样东西：发声。”这就是为什么他给继任者只有三个词的建议：“讲真话。”联合国安理会仍在决定下一任秘书长人选。
Because nations don’t have to do what the U.N. or its leaders ask and superpowers have veto authority, Guterres said his position as secretary-general “has no real power. We have not much money you know. But there is one thing we have: A voice.”That’s why he simply has three words of advice to whoever succeeds him: “Tell the truth.”The U.N. Security Council is still deciding on who will be the next secretary-general.
古特雷斯表示，他希望公众记住的关于气候变化的唯一信息是：“要认真对待，因为这是生存威胁。而我们需要为之奋斗的第一件事，就是我们自己的生命。”
The one message Guterres said he wants the public to remember on climate change: “Take it seriously because it is an existential threat. And the first thing we need to fight is for our own lives.”