指责在美国中期选举投票结束、共和党惨败的程度显露之前就已开始。选举日当天，唐纳德·特朗普在一次采访中说，美国将在“年底”切断对以色列的军事援助。他解释说，以色列不再需要这笔援助；该国“繁荣昌盛”。但总统补充说，还有另一个原因：“这是个糟糕的谈资。”副总统J.D.万斯则更加直白。选举次日，他将共和党的失败归咎于与伊朗的战争，以及美国与以色列的关系。
The blame started before voting in America’s midterm elections ended and the extent of the Republicans’ drubbing was revealed. In an interview on election day Donald Trump said that America would cut off military aid to Israel “at the end of the year”. Israel no longer needs it, he explained; the country is “thriving”. But there was another reason, the president added: “It’s a bad talking point.”J.D. Vance, the vice-president, was more direct. On the day after the election, he blamed the war in Iran, and also America’s relationship with Israel, for the Republicans’ defeat.
以色列在美国的声望持续下滑。其在加沙和黎巴嫩的残酷军事行动早已激怒了政治光谱两端的选民和政客。不得人心的与伊朗的战争进一步引发了人们对以色列每年从美国获得38亿美元援助的关注，其中几乎全部是用于购买美国制造的武器和其他军事物资的补贴。
Israel has been falling steadily out of favour in America. Its brutal campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon had already angered voters and politicians on both ends of the political spectrum. The unpopular war with Iran upon has drawn further attention to the $3.8bn Israel receives annually from America, nearly all of it as subsidies for the purchase of American-made arms and other military supplies.
美国与以色列的同盟关系在多场高关注度竞选中成为议题，其中包括密歇根州当选参议员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的竞选，他猛烈抨击军事援助。其他候选人则以不接受亲以色列游说团体AIPAC（美国以色列公共事务委员会）的捐款为荣。AIPAC本身在选举前两周表示将停止背书候选人，这等于默认其品牌已具有毒性。
America’s alliance with Israel featured in a number of high-profile contests, including that of Abdul El-Sayed, the senator-elect from Michigan who fiercely criticised military aid. Other candidates took pride in not accepting donations from AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby. AIPAC itself said two weeks before the election that it would stop endorsing candidates, a tacit admission of the toxicity of its brand.
特朗普和万斯先生的话并未被以色列人忽视。“特朗普在中期选举当天说出这番话，是一个政治信号，表明以色列目前在两党中都不受欢迎，”以色列国家安全委员会前高级主任阿夫纳·戈洛夫说。
Messrs Trump and Vance’s words were not lost on Israelis. “The fact Trump said this on the day of the midterms was a political message that Israel is currently unpopular with both parties,” says Avner Golov, a former senior director on Israel’s national-security council.
贝拉克·奥巴马签署了当前为期十年、总额38亿美元的援助计划，该计划将于2028年到期。以色列政府知晓，谈判新一揽子援助计划将十分棘手。越来越多的民主党人对以色列表现出特别的敌意，而特朗普政府——以及共和党总体上——不愿给外国人提供资金。鉴于此，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在1月告诉《经济学人》，他倾向于在未来十年内逐步淘汰美国援助。近几个月已就援助的未来展开过谈判，但特朗普在大选日宣布此事，让以色列官员感到意外。
Barack Obama signed the current ten-year $3.8bn package, which is set to run out in 2028. The Israeli government was aware that negotiating a new package would be tricky. Growing numbers of Democrats are particularly hostile to Israel, and the Trump administration—and Republicans more widely—are loth to give money to foreigners. In light of this, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, told The Economist in January that he favoured gradually phasing out American aid over the next ten years. Talks had started in recent months about the future of aid, but Mr Trump’s election-day announcement took Israeli officials by surprise.
“多年来很明显，同美国的同盟条款将不得不改变，”曾任以色列驻纽约总领事的前外交官阿隆·平卡斯说。“现在看来，内塔尼亚胡已同特朗普达成一致，终止当前的援助协议，却没有任何东西准备好来取代它。”这种关系的未来尚不清楚。特朗普曾暗示，以色列将能够继续购买美国武器，但要自掏腰包。但以色列官员担心，由民主党控制的国会将限制以色列能购买的武器种类，并对其使用方式施加限制，特别是在被占巴勒斯坦领土上。
“It’s been clear for years that the terms of the alliance with America were going to have to change,” says Alon Pinkas, a former diplomat who served as Israel’s consul-general in New York. “Now it looks like Netanyahu has agreed with Trump to end the current aid agreement, without anything ready to replace it.”The future of the relationship is unclear. Mr Trump has suggested that Israel will be able to continue buying American arms, on its own dime. But Israeli officials worry that, controlled by the Democrats, Congress will limit the kinds of weapons Israel will be able to buy and put restrictions on how it may use them, especially in the occupied Palestinian territories.
半个多世纪以来，历届美国政府一直致力于维持以色列在中东的“质的军事优势”，向其提供先进武器系统，比提供给美国的阿拉伯盟友早数年。这一点现在也可能成为争论的对象。
For over half a century successive American administrations have been committed to maintaining Israel’s “qualitative military edge” in the Middle East, supplying it with advanced weapons systems, years before America’s Arab allies. That may be up for debate as well.
终止美国援助将在未来两年在以色列财政中撕开一个70亿美元的缺口。在打了三年多线战争之后，以色列一直在大肆采购以更新以色列国防军的武库，订购了飞机、直升机等装备。据《华尔街日报》报道，以色列在2028年后还将为已订购的装备欠下100亿美元。
An end to American aid would blow a $7bn hole in Israel’s finances in the next two years. After three years fighting multiple wars, it has been on a spending spree to refresh the IDF’s arsenal, ordering planes, helicopters and more. Israel will owe another $10bn after 2028 for kit it has already ordered, according to the Wall Street Journal.
以色列经济能够承受这种情况，尽管这意味着未来几年将削减国家预算。“从财政角度看，这令人遗憾，但不是地震，”耶路撒冷希伯来大学金融学教授伊加尔·纽曼说。“美国援助仅占以色列国内生产总值的约半个百分点。”但他指出，这也将打击以色列作为美国关键盟友的地位。以色列与美国的关系不仅增强了其军事和经济实力，还为以色列提供了外交掩护。
Israel’s economy could withstand that, though it would mean cuts to the national budget in the coming years. “In financial terms it’s regrettable, but not an earthquake,” says Yigal Newman, a professor of finance at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. “American aid is barely half a percent of Israel’s GDP.”But, he points out, it would also be a blow to Israel’s standing as America’s key ally. Israel’s relationship with America not only boosts its military and economic power, it gives Israel diplomatic cover as well.
美国经常在联合国安理会行使否决权，阻挠针对以色列的决议。它向其他国家施压，例如英国，后者已因暴力定居者在被占领的约旦河西岸袭击巴勒斯坦人而宣布对以色列实施制裁。如果新一届国会考虑类似制裁，以色列将在国际上更加暴露。
America frequently deploys its veto in the United Nations Security Council to block anti-Israel resolutions. It puts pressure on other countries, such as Britain, which has announced sanctions on Israel over the violent settler attacks on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. If the new Congress is considering similar sanctions, Israel will be more exposed internationally.
并非一切都已失去，这一同盟关系远超武器销售范畴。美国在以色列维持雷达和情报收集设施，并最近在内盖夫扩建了一个供美军飞机使用的空军基地。两国在导弹防御和情报共享方面开展密切合作。以色列可使用美国的监视卫星。美国军火公司利用以色列国防军在战场上测试其武器。
All is not lost for the alliance, which goes far beyond arms sales. America maintains radar and intelligence-gathering installations in Israel and recently expanded an airbase used by American aircraft in the Negev. The two countries co-operate intensively on missile defence and intelligence sharing. Israel has access to America’s surveillance satellites. America’s arms companies make use of the Israel Defence Forces to test their weapons on the battlefield.
以色列在国会仍有支持者。参议院预计将出任多数党领袖的查克·舒默，以及众议院对应职位的哈基姆·杰弗里斯，均属于民主党中较亲以色列的派别。“民主党胜选规模表明，极左翼对法案的影响将受到限制，”加州大学洛杉矶分校政治学家多夫·瓦克斯曼说。
And Israel still has supporters in Congress. Chuck Schumer, the probable majority leader in the senate, and Hakeem Jeffries, his counterpart in the House of Representatives, are on the more Israel-friendly wing of the Democrats. “The size of the Democratic victory suggests that the influence of the far-left on bills will be limited,” says Dov Waxman, a political scientist at University of California, Los Angeles.
但这种关系已发生根本性变化。内塔尼亚胡于10月27日在以色列议会失去多数席位，他长期向以色列人展示自己是美国事务的终极专家。然而，他监管下的以色列在美国的地位却经历了以色列历史上最剧烈的恶化。以色列外交官私下承认，他们的总理、其强硬政策和极右翼联合政府在美国“已成毒药”。耶路撒冷的政府更迭会有所帮助。但这一联盟正变得更加脆弱。■
But the relationship has fundamentally changed. Mr Netanyahu, who lost his majority in the Knesset on October 27th, has long presented himself to Israelis as the ultimate expert on America. Yet he has overseen the most drastic deterioration in his country’s standing in America in Israel’s history. Israeli diplomats privately accept that their prime minister, his hardline policies and hard-right coalition are “toxic in America”. A change in government in Jerusalem would help. But the alliance is becoming more brittle. ■