
艾森科特寻求驱逐内塔尼亚胡总理职务。以下是具体方式。加迪·艾森科特迎来了组建新政府、取代本雅明·内塔尼亚胡担任总理的机会。但前方的障碍巨大。
Eisenkot Seeks to Oust Netanyahu as Prime Minister. Here’s How. Gadi Eisenkot gets the chance to form a new government, replacing Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister. But the obstacles are formidable.
以色列前军事主官加迪·艾森科特获得了组建新政府的机会。此前,在拥有120个席位的议会中赢得67个席位的各政党推荐他承担这项任务。
Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former military chief, has been given a chance to form a new government, after he was recommended for the task by parties that won 67 seats in the 120-seat Parliament.
但完成这一使命并取代总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡,很可能是艾森科特迄今为止职业生涯中最艰巨的任务。
But completing that mission and replacing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may well be the toughest assignment of Mr. Eisenkot’s career so far.
推荐他担任总理的各派系在意识形态和种族上各不相同,其中包括左翼、右翼、中派以及主要由阿拉伯人组成的政党。无论艾森科特如何将他们编入执政联盟,多数政党都必须打破看似铁板一块的竞选承诺,才能团结在他身后。
The ideologically and ethnically diverse factions that recommended him for prime minister include left-wing, right-wing, centrist and predominantly Arab parties. Most would have to break seemingly ironclad campaign promises to unite behind Mr. Eisenkot, no matter how he arranges them into a governing coalition.
但他及其盟友承受着必须这样做的压力,因为在他们看来,其他选择要糟糕得多。
But the pressure is on him and his allies to do just that because the alternatives, in their view, are far worse.
组建政府失败可能会让以色列面临新一轮选举。在此期间,内塔尼亚胡将继续担任总理,并享有在任者的所有优势。反对派不太可能表现得像10月份那样好,当时成千上万身居海外的以色列人飞回国内投票。
A failure to form a government could send Israel to another round of elections. It would leave Mr. Netanyahu in his job as prime minister in the meantime, with all of the advantages of incumbency. And the opposition would be unlikely to perform as well as it did in October, when thousands of expatriate Israelis flew home to vote.
艾森科特和内塔尼亚胡共享权力(例如轮流担任总理)的团结政府,在选举日前看来遥不可及,现在更是不可想象。艾森科特的一些竞选承诺留有回旋余地,但他坚决表示,内塔尼亚胡作为对2023年10月7日国家遭受其历史上最严重袭击负有最终防卫责任的人,已不适合继续在政府中任职。
A unity government in which Mr. Eisenkot and Mr. Netanyahu share power, such as by taking turns as premier, seemed far-fetched before Election Day and seems unthinkable now. Some of Mr. Eisenkot’s campaign promises left wiggle room, but he was adamant in saying that Mr. Netanyahu, as the person with ultimate responsibility for defending the country on Oct. 7, 2023, when it suffered its worst attack in history, was unfit to continue in government.
自大选以来,内塔尼亚胡先生试图将选举结果合法性剥夺——他指责阿拉伯政党盗取选票——这一做法使这些看法更加根深蒂固。反对派领导人辩称,美国中期选举呈失衡状态的结果凸显了取代内塔尼亚胡先生的紧迫性:以色列在民主、共和两党议员中的地位如此黯淡,内塔尼亚胡先生又如此遭人痛恨,以至于只有一位新总理才可能开始修复这一关系。
Since the election, Mr. Netanyahu’s efforts to delegitimize the result — by accusing Arab parties of stealing votes — have hardened those views. And the lopsided result of the U.S. midterm elections underscored the urgency of replacing Mr. Netanyahu, opposition leaders have argued: Israel’s standing with lawmakers in both the Democratic and Republican parties is so dismal, and Mr. Netanyahu so deeply loathed, that only a new prime minister could possibly begin to repair it.
“以色列已经身处一场危险的外交海啸之中,”艾森科特先生周五表示。他补充说,内塔尼亚胡先生“继续对以色列的安全系统和执法机构行使权力是危险的,绝不能容许这种情况哪怕再持续一天。”但艾森科特先生能组建什么样的政府呢?
“Israel is already in the midst of a dangerous diplomatic tsunami,” Mr. Eisenkot said on Friday. He added that a situation in which Mr. Netanyahu “continues to exercise authority over Israel’s security system and law enforcement agencies is dangerous and must not be allowed to continue for even one more day.”But what kind of government can Mr. Eisenkot form?
他的起步拥有48名国会议员,这要归功于他自己的中右翼“向前”党(21席)、纳夫塔利·贝内特和亚伊尔·拉皮德的中右翼“一起”党(12席)、亚伊尔·戈兰与左翼民主党(8席),以及阿维格多·利伯曼的右翼世俗政党“以色列是我们的家园”(7席)。
He starts with 48 members of Parliament, thanks to his own center-right Yashar party (21), Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s centrist Together party (12), Yair Golan and the left-wing Democrats party (8), and Avigdor Liberman’s right-wing but secular Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) party (7).
这比内塔尼亚胡先生的执政联盟所能依靠的还要多:在极端正统派政党“圣经犹太教联盟”拒绝推荐他担任总理后,内塔尼亚胡先生的执政联盟仅拥有46个席位。
That is more than Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition can count on: After an ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, refused to recommend him for prime minister, Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition has only 46 seats.
为了组建一个更大的执政联盟,更不用说在国会中获得多数席位,艾森科特先生的选择包括与拥有13个席位的极端正统派政党合作,或是与赢得创纪录19个席位的阿拉伯政党合作。根据反对派议员、政治操盘手和顾问的说法,这两条途径都存在严重问题,他们绝大多数要求匿名以讨论组建联盟的会谈。
To form a bigger coalition, let alone a majority in Parliament, Mr. Eisenkot’s options include partnering with the ultra-Orthodox parties, which together have 13 seats, or the Arab parties, which won a record 19 seats. Either route is deeply problematic, according to opposition lawmakers, operatives and advisers, most of whom insisted on anonymity to discuss coalition talks.
以下是艾森科特先生可能的前进道路,以及阻碍其前进的一大主要障碍。
Here is a look at Mr. Eisenkot’s possible path forward, and at one major roadblock standing in his way.
首先,控制议会 在新政府组建之前,内塔尼亚胡先生依然是看守总理。但议员情况则不同。议员们将于周二宣誓就职,埃森科特先生正着手安排选举新议长,以取代内塔尼亚胡的忠实盟友阿米尔·奥哈纳。
First, Take Control of Parliament Until a new government is formed, Mr. Netanyahu remains a caretaker prime minister. But Parliament is another story. Lawmakers will be sworn in on Tuesday, and Mr. Eisenkot is working to arrange for the election of a new speaker to replace Amir Ohana, a Netanyahu loyalist.
如果成功,那可能会让埃森科特先生的盟友掌控关键立法委员会。这还可能允许他的反内塔尼亚胡阵营开始颁布立法——兑现关键竞选承诺,并展示埃森科特先生办成事情的能力。
If he is successful, that could put Mr. Eisenkot’s allies in charge of key legislative committees. And it could allow his anti-Netanyahu bloc to begin enacting legislation — fulfilling key campaign promises and demonstrating Mr. Eisenkot’s ability to get things done.
内部人士表示,最容易摘到的果子将是废除内塔尼亚胡先生的联盟通过的法律,例如允许对法官任命进行更多政治控制并限制总检察长权力的争议性司法变革。
The lowest-hanging fruit, insiders say, would be to repeal laws passed by Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition, such as controversial judicial changes allowing more political control over the appointment of judges and curbing the attorney general’s powers.
同样重要的是兑现所有反对派领袖的核心竞选承诺,即成立一个国家调查委员会,以调查10月7日袭击发生之前的安全失职。
Equally important would be to deliver on a core campaign promise by all the opposition leaders to establish a national commission of inquiry to investigate the security failures that preceded the Oct. 7 attack.
利伯曼排除阿拉伯政党 埃森科特先生过去一周开始谈论组建“国家紧急政府”的必要性——这是一个重要的措辞转变。
Liberman Rules Out the Arab Parties Mr. Eisenkot this past week began speaking of the need to form a “national emergency government” — an important rhetorical shift.
以色列政策论坛高级研究员、曾在西蒙·佩雷斯任总理期间担任其顾问的尼姆罗德·诺维克表示:“如果是紧急情况,你就会做平时不会做的事。”
“If it’s an emergency, you do things you wouldn’t do otherwise,” said Nimrod Novik, a senior fellow of the Israel Policy Forum who was an adviser to Shimon Peres when he was prime minister.
阿拉伯政党拥有的19个议席将为埃森科特先生提供坚实多数,但将他们纳人政府可能会让他失去其他盟友。
The Arab parties’ 19 seats would give Mr. Eisenkot a solid majority, but bringing them into a government could cost him other allies.
就目前而言,这个问题尚无实际意义:共同名单由三个赢得11个议席的小型阿拉伯政党组成,该党已排除加入政府的可能性,不过它可以在外部提供支持并使少数派政府得以运转。赢得8个议席的联合阿拉伯名单(即拉阿姆)尚未排除。但埃森科特先生坚称,任何加入其政府的政党都必须宣布哈马斯为恐怖组织。
For now, the question is moot: The Joint List, an amalgam of three smaller Arab parties that together won 11 seats, has ruled out joining a government, though it could provide support from the outside and enable a minority government to function. The United Arab List, or Raam, which won eight seats, has not. But Mr. Eisenkot has insisted that any party joining his government must declare Hamas a terrorist organization.
拉姆党领袖曼苏尔·阿巴斯拒绝这样做,尽管他谴责一切恐怖主义行为。但他周四确实表示,哈马斯以及所有其他巴勒斯坦派别都应该被解除武装。
Raam’s leader, Mansour Abbas, has refused to do so, though he condemns all terrorist acts. But he did say on Thursday that Hamas and all other Palestinian factions should be disarmed.
然而,即便阿巴斯先生能够让艾森科特先生满意,“以色列是我们的家园”党领袖利伯曼也已多次排除组建包含阿拉伯政党、甚至依赖其外部支持的政府的可能性。那就只剩下依赖极端正统派(即哈雷迪派)政党了。与极端正统派达成协议?
Even if Mr. Abbas were to satisfy Mr. Eisenkot, however, Mr. Liberman, the Yisrael Beiteinu leader, has repeatedly ruled out a government that includes Arab parties or even relies on their support from the outside. That leaves relying on the ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, parties. A Deal With the Ultra-Orthodox?
这也是充满风险的。对哈雷迪派而言,最重要的议题是保护他们的年轻男子免受军队征兵和逃兵惩罚。目前,这些年轻人大约占适龄参军青少年的四分之一。但在以色列军队人手捉襟见肘的情况下,艾森科特先生及其反对派盟友的核心竞选承诺之一,就是迫使哈雷迪派男子分担保卫国家的牺牲。
This, too, is fraught with peril. The most important issue for the Haredim is to protect their young men, who now account for about one in four draft-age teenagers, from conscription into the military and punishment for draft evasion. But with the Israeli Army overstretched, a core campaign promise of Mr. Eisenkot and his opposition allies was to compel Haredi men to share the sacrifice of defending the country.
利伯曼先生现在选择打破这一承诺,但没有打破他将阿拉伯政党排除在政府之外的誓言。
Mr. Liberman has now chosen to break that promise but not his vow to keep Arab parties out of the government.
周五,他在社交媒体上写道,虽然他依然坚决要取代内塔尼亚胡先生、避免举行新选举,并拒绝与阿拉伯政党建立任何伙伴关系,“但在所有其他问题上,灵活妥协、懂得不可能事事如愿是允许的、也是可取的。这其中也包括征兵法的问题。”艾森科特先生在关于征兵极端正统派的竞选言论中并非完全绝对,但“团结”党的贝内特对此态度坚决,他将不得不接受违背这一承诺的现实。
On Friday, he wrote on social media that while he remained dead set on replacing Mr. Netanyahu, avoiding new elections and spurning any partnership with the Arab parties, “on all other issues, it is permissible and desirable to be flexible and compromise, and to understand that you cannot have it all. This includes the issue of the conscription law as well.”Mr. Eisenkot was not entirely absolutist in his campaign rhetoric about drafting the ultra-Orthodox, but Mr. Bennett, of the Together party, was adamant about it and would have to accept going back on that pledge.
艾森科特先生可能也会发现,很难与哈雷迪派政党领袖达成协议,因为这些领袖在组阁谈判方面的经验远比他丰富,而且近年来他们的选民变得越来越右翼和民族主义。
Mr. Eisenkot could also find it difficult to strike a deal with the Haredi party leaders, who are far more experienced at coalition negotiations than he is, and whose voters have grown steadily more right-wing and nationalist in recent years.
华盛顿近东政策研究所分析师大卫·马科夫斯基表示,圣经犹太教联盟拒绝推荐内塔尼亚胡担任总理是一个积极信号。他说:“这意味着店铺还开着。但他们愿意在多大程度上违背其真正的右翼选民基础——这才是价值6.4万美元的问题。”艾森科特考虑组建少数派政府艾森科特周五表示,凭借48票对内塔尼亚胡的46票,他计划组建一个少数派政府,至少在初期是这样。这意味着阿拉伯政党和极端正统派政党将在组建政府的投票中弃权。
David Makovsky, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the fact that United Torah Judaism had declined to recommend Mr. Netanyahu for prime minister was a positive sign. “It means the store is open,” he said. “But how much they’re willing to go against their base, which is really right-wing — that’s the $64,000 question.”Eisenkot Considers a Minority Government With 48 votes to Mr. Netanyahu’s 46, Mr. Eisenkot said on Friday that he planned to form a minority government, at least initially. That would mean that the Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties abstain from the vote to form the government.
但他同时也表示,他将邀请每一个政党——没有任何例外——加入他的政府,无论现在还是将来,前提是这些政党接受他的条件:承认以色列为一个犹太民主国家、接受以色列《独立宣言》中的价值观、要求全民服兵役或进行国民民事服役,并同意哈马斯是一个必须被解散的恐怖组织。
But he also said he would invite every political party — without exceptions — to join his government, now or later, provided it embraced his terms: recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, accepting the values in the Israeli Declaration of Independence, requiring universal national military or civilian service, and agreeing that Hamas is a terrorist organization that must be dismantled.
然而,利伯曼再次成为绊脚石。周五,他排除组建未达到61个席位多数的政府的可能性。
Mr. Liberman, however, is again standing in the way. On Friday, he ruled out forming a government with anything less than a 61-seat majority.
希伯来大学政治学讲师、正为反对派担任顾问的盖尔·塔尔希尔表示,目前尚不清楚利伯曼是否真的希望艾森科特取得成功。
Gayil Talshir, a political science lecturer at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem who is advising the opposition, said it was unclear whether Mr. Liberman really wanted Mr. Eisenkot to be successful.
利伯曼公开抱怨称,艾森科特在竞选结束时蚕食了其盟友的支持,利伯曼认为这导致以色列是我们的家园党和反内塔尼亚胡阵营失去了几个席位。
Mr. Liberman has complained publicly that Mr. Eisenkot ended his campaign by cannibalizing support for his allies in a way that Mr. Liberman contends cost both Yisrael Beiteinu and the anti-Netanyahu bloc several seats.
塔尔希尔表示,利伯曼如果同意与阿拉伯政党结盟,可能会害怕遭到其右翼选民的愤怒反对。他还可能在伺机争取自己当上总理。
Ms. Talshir said Mr. Liberman may fear the wrath of his right-wing voters if he agrees to a partnership with Arab parties. He also may be angling to take a shot at becoming prime minister himself.
如果艾森科特未能组建政府,内塔尼亚胡将获得接下来的机会。但如果他也失败了,在宣布举行新选举之前将有一个短暂的时期,届时议会中的任何人——包括利伯曼——都可以通过争取其他60名议员的支持而成为总理。
Should Mr. Eisenkot fail to form a government, Mr. Netanyahu would be given a chance next. But if he failed, there would be a short period before new elections are called in which anyone in Parliament — including Mr. Liberman — could become prime minister by enlisting the support of 60 other lawmakers.
周五,艾森科特似乎暗示了利伯曼的阻挠以及可能存在的不可告人的动机。
On Friday, Mr. Eisenkot appeared to allude to Mr. Liberman’s resistance — and possible ulterior motives.
他在安息日开始前在社交媒体上写道:“任何出于个人原因而非实质性原因试图延迟或破坏政府组建的人,都将被历史铭记为未能不负使命、未能在国家紧急状态下采取行动拯救以色列的人。他们不会被原谅。”亚当·拉斯贡(Adam Rasgon)自特拉维夫参与报道。
“Anyone who seeks to delay or sabotage the formation of a government for personal rather than substantive reasons,” he wrote on social media before the start of the Sabbath, “will be remembered by history as someone who failed to rise to the occasion and failed to act to save Israel in a time of national emergency. They will not be forgiven.”
大卫·M·哈尔芬格(David M. Halbfinger)是《纽约时报》耶路撒冷分社社长,负责领导对以色列、加沙和约旦河西岸的报道。他在2017年至2021年也担任过这一职务。他曾在2021年至2025年担任政治新闻编辑。
Adam Rasgon contributed reporting from Tel Aviv. David M. Halbfinger is The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief, leading coverage of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. He also held that post from 2017 to 2021. He was the politics editor from 2021 to 2025.