本雅明·内塔尼亚胡试图通过暗示阿拉伯社区存在大规模选民舞弊来让选举结果被宣布无效——尽管缺乏证据——这一尝试也几乎完全失败了。大选结束十天后，以色列反对派开始敢于希望内塔尼亚胡的权力终于在流失。
Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to have the results declared invalid by implying widespread voter fraud in the Arab community – despite scant evidence – have also all but failed Ten days after the general election, Israel’s opposition is daring to hope that the power is finally draining from Benjamin Netanyahu.
一连串政党领袖已倒向加迪·艾森科特，他是最有望取代内塔尼亚胡的人选，而这位利库德集团总理的执政集团已开始出现裂痕。
A string of party leaders have fallen in behind Gadi Eisenkot, the man best placed to replace him, and cracks have begun to appear in the Likud prime minister’s governing bloc.
与此同时，美国对以色列支持的戏剧性崩塌——由周二中期选举中民主党的压倒性胜利发出信号——更增加了反对派领袖搁置分歧、寻找摆脱他们归咎于外交灾难始作俑者之道的动力。
Meanwhile, the dramatic implosion of US support for Israel, signalled by the sweeping Democratic victory in Tuesday’s midterms, has only added energy to the opposition leaders’ efforts to put aside their differences and find a way of getting rid of the man they blame for the diplomatic catastrophe.
许多资深分析人士现在倾向于认为，由艾森科特领导的某种形式的政府是更可能的结果——尽管他们强调，在以色列政治中，任何事情都可能发生。
Many seasoned analysts are now leaning towards some form of Eisenkot-led government as the more likely outcome – although they stress that, in Israeli politics, anything can happen.
耶路撒冷希伯来大学政治学高级讲师盖伊尔·塔尔希尔博士表示，艾森科特组建政府的道路将很艰难，但这将是“最可能”的结果。
Dr Gayil Talshir, a senior lecturer in political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Mr Eisenkot’s road to forming a government would be difficult but would be “the most probable” outcome.
她说：“不存在内塔尼亚胡真能组建联盟的情景，因为他最多只有120票中的53票。”
“There is no scenario in which Netanyahu can actually form a coalition because he has at most 53 votes out of 120,” she said.
有利于艾森科特领导的反对派的脆弱势头，引发了人们担心利库德集团活动人士可能会在下周议会宣誓就职后，发动类似国会山骚乱式的冲击议会行动。
The fragile momentum in favour of the Eisenkot-led opposition has given rise to fears that Likud activists could resort to a Capitol Hill-style assault on the Knesset after it is sworn in next week.
最早于周五，艾森科特预计将正式获得以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格给予的首次组建联合政府的机会，此前一连串其他政党领袖已推荐他担任此职。
As early as Friday, Mr Eisenkot is expected formally to be offered the first opportunity to form a coalition government by Isaac Herzog, the Israeli president, following a string of recommendations in his favour by other party leaders.
从那里开始，他的支持者希望他能建立势头，推进谈判以组建一个稳固的联盟。
From there, his supporters hope he can build momentum towards negotiating a secure coalition.
以色列的选举制度与比例代表制密切相关，选举后几乎总是需要通过痛苦的联盟谈判组建政府。因此，竞选承诺在以色列并非不可违背的约束。
Having, like Mr Netanyahu, failed to win a majority for his overall bloc, he can only become prime minister by breaking at least one of his campaign promises – which were not to form a government with the Arab parties, with Mr Netanyahu, or with Ultra-Orthodox parties if that meant conceding to their request to exempt their young men from military service.
以本内特总理为代表的右翼阵营未能获得多数席位，他若想成为总理，就必须至少打破一项竞选承诺——即不与阿拉伯政党、与本内特结盟，或在极端正统派政党要求豁免其青年男性兵役的情况下与之结盟。
However, in Israel’s system of proportional representation, where nearly all governments are formed following painful post-election coalition negotiations, campaign promises are there to be broken.
然而，两个阿拉伯多数政党——其支持者曾遭到本内特毫无根据的选民舞弊指控——均已宣布支持加迪·艾森科特。这一表态意义重大，因为这两个政党在120席的立法机构中合计拥有19席。
The two Arab-majority parties, whose supporters were the target of Mr Netanyahu’s unfounded voter fraud allegations, have both declared their support for Mr Eisenkot – a significant boost considering their combined 19 seats in the 120-seat legislature.
两个阿拉伯多数政党均已宣布支持加迪·艾森科特。这或许是以色列这位资深总理右翼阵营中出现的第一个裂痕：联合 Torah 犹太教党——代表极端正统派犹太人的一个政党——周三拒绝支持本内特担任总理，尽管该党多年来一直支持本内特的政府。这使得艾森科特的阵营获得67票支持，而本内特则为46票。
The two Arab-majority parties have both declared their support for Gadi Eisenkot In what could be the first crack in the veteran prime minister’s Right-wing bloc, United Torah Judaism, one of the parties representing Ultra-Orthodox Jews, refused to back Mr Netanyahu for the premiership on Wednesday, despite having supported his government for years. That puts Mr Eisenkot’s bloc on 67 supporters, versus 46 for Mr Netanyahu.
在以色列election后博弈的蜿蜒体系中，争取到第一个“授权”固然重要，但并非决定性因素。在此背景下，《 Maariv》报报道，利库德运动人士正计划阻挠一项替换本内特支持的议长人选的投票。
In Israel’s serpentine system of post-election jockeying, securing the first “mandate”, while by no means conclusive, is a big deal. In this context, Maariv newspaper has reported fears that Likud activists are planning to disrupt a vote to replace the Netanyahu-supporting Knesset speaker.
移除阿米尔·奥哈尼是艾森科特 election后战略的关键环节，因为这将使他和他的支持者能够掌控议会的议事程序，从而推动诸如通过一项法案设立独立调查委员会等行动——该委员会旨在调查10月7日的袭击事件，而本内特迄今一直予以阻止。
Removing Amir Ohana is a key plank of Mr Eisenkot’s post-election strategy, as it would allow him and his supporters to control proceedings in the Knesset, enabling them to do things such as pass a bill to set up an independent commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks, which Mr Netanyahu has so far prevented.
他们希望，此类举措能在反对党之间起到建立互信的作用——这些党派绝非天然盟友——从而达成联合执政的协议。
They hope that steps like this will act as confidence-building measures between the opposition parties – not all natural bedfellows by any means – leading to a deal to govern together.
然而，据内部人士透露，人们担心数百名利库德集团成员计划聚集在议会大厅，以此阻止议员进入，这被内部人士称为“1月6日式袭击”——指的是2021年特朗普支持者冲击国会大厦、阻碍权力移交的事件。
However, in what insiders have called a January 6-style assault – a reference to the storming of the Capitol building by Trump supporters in 2021 to prevent the transfer of power – hundreds of Likud members are feared to be planning to converge on the chamber to physically prevent Knesset members from entering.
另一种担忧是，利库德集团活动人士计划从大厅内部制造骚乱，给奥哈纳以暂停会议的借口。
Alternatively, Likud activists are feared to be planning a disturbance from inside the chamber, giving Mr Ohana the pretext to suspend proceedings.
议长坚持表示，如果多数议员提出要求，他将允许就新任议长人选进行辩论。
The speaker insists that he will allow a debate on a new Knesset speaker if one is requested by a majority of members.
艾森科特能否放下他的顾虑——以及竞选承诺——与阿拉伯政党达成协议？他在选举之夜以来的言论可以说显示出一种更为灵活的态度。
Could Mr Eisenkot put aside his unease – and campaign pledge – and do a deal with the Arab parties? His comments since election night arguably indicate a more flexible approach.
他列出了四项原则，例如承认国家的犹太属性、承诺瓦解哈马斯，并表示他联盟中的任何政党都必须同意这些原则，但大多数人认为这些原则明显是针对阿拉伯政党的。
He listed four principles, such as recognising the Jewish nature of the state and committing to dismantle Hamas, to which he said any party in his coalition would have to agree, but most believed they were clearly aimed at the Arabs.
由曼苏尔·阿巴斯领导的拉姆党（Ra’am）很可能会加入艾森科特领导的联盟，但由尤瑟夫·贾巴林领导的更具民族主义色彩的联合名单（Joint List）表示，它将像1990年代那样，在外部支持少数派政府。
Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, would probably join an Eisenkot coalition, but Joint List, a more nationalist group led by Yousef Jabareen, has said it would support a minority government from the outside, as last happened in the 1990s.
阿拉伯主导的联合名单政治联盟领袖尤瑟夫·贾巴林对出口民调作出反应 即使如目前看起来越来越可能的那样，艾森科特同意与他的以色列阿拉伯裔同胞合作，他仍面临另一位年迈右翼人士、以色列我们家党领袖阿维格多·利伯曼设下的巨大路障。该党主要代表俄罗斯裔以色列人，上周赢得了七个席位。
Yousef Jabareen, the leader of the Arab-led Joint List political alliance, reacts to exit polls Even if, as looks increasingly probable, Mr Eisenkot does agree to work with his Israeli-Arab compatriots, he faces the considerable roadblock in the form of another elderly Right-winger, Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of Israel Beiteinu party, which largely represents Russian Israelis and which won seven seats last week.
曾任利库德集团主席、后与内塔尼亚胡决裂的利伯曼，“在宗教与国家关系议题上转向自由派阵营，在其他议题上仍属右翼”，且“以难以捉摸著称”，塔尔希尔博士说。“他是个不可预测的人，没有朋友，是个独行侠，”她说。
A politician who was once the chairman of Likud before falling out bitterly with Mr Netanyahu, Mr Lieberman has “moved into the liberal bloc over religion-state issues, while remaining right-wing on other issues” and is notoriously difficult to read, said Dr Talshir. “He’s unpredictable, he doesn’t have friends, he’s a rogue player,” she said.
尽管属于反对派阵营，利伯曼却指责艾森科特导致该阵营在大选中表现不佳，并把与阿拉伯政党合作视为绝不逾越的红线。
Although part of the opposition bloc, Mr Lieberman blames Mr Eisenkot for the grouping not doing better at the election and has made dealing with the Arab parties a red line he says he will not cross.
利伯曼显然是勉为其难地向总统推荐由艾森科特先行组阁，但这离支持他出任总理还差得远。他最终打算如何，目前不得而知。有人认为他可能自己想当总理。
Mr Lieberman, apparently grudgingly, recommended to the president that Mr Eisenkot should be granted first mandate, but that is a long way from supporting him to become prime minister. It is not clear what his ultimate game is. Some think he may want the prime minister’s role himself.
“像他这样的人，想要艾森科特给哪个部长职位就能拿到哪个，根本不用争。想当国防部长、想当执行副总理，想要什么就能得到，”塔尔希尔博士说。
“The thing is, he can get whichever ministry he wants [from Mr Eisenkot]. He doesn’t have to put up a fight. If he wants to be the defence minister, if he wants to be the executive, whatever he wants, he will get,” said Dr Talshir.
“所以利伯曼的算盘可能是：让艾森科特和内塔尼亚胡都组阁失败，然后利用大选前的短暂窗口期自己组建联合政府，从而成为总理。”这位学者表示，另一种情形是以色列总统和特朗普施压艾森科特组建“犹太复国主义团结政府”——即与内塔尼亚胡合作——尽管美中期选举结果出炉后，这种可能性似乎小得多。
“So maybe Lieberman’s plan is to let both Eisenkot and Netanyahu fail, and then to try to use the short period before a new election to form a coalition himself, meaning that he will be the prime minister.”Another scenario, the academic said, was that both the Israeli president and Donald Trump pressure Mr Eisenkot to form a “unity Zionist government” – ie with Mr Netanyahu – although this seems much less likely after the US midterm results.
也有人认为，利伯曼最终会在允许阿拉伯政党支持艾森科特领导的少数派政府问题上让步。
Others think Mr Lieberman will eventually give way on allowing Arab support for a minority Eisenkot government.
评论家开玩笑说，利伯曼是由他的“仇恨”定义的，在这方面内塔尼亚胡“夺金”，阿拉伯人仅屈居“银牌”。
Commentators joke that he is defined by his hates, and that in this Mr Netanyahu “takes gold”, with the Arabs only coming in at “silver”.